|
Feb 19
|
|
$0.71
$0.706564
-0.5%
|
LONG
|
@LiveSquawk,
|
Strong Australian unemployment data and robust hiring validate a hawkish RBA stance. This suggests potential for higher interest rates or rates staying elevated, which is supportive for the Australian Dollar. |
@LiveSquawk
Australia Unemployment Stays Low, Backing Haw...
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
$0.71
$0.706564
-0.5%
|
LONG
|
Jeremy Stretch
Editor, Financial Times
|
The UK faces political risk (Reform UK challenging BoE mandate) and a dovish pivot. Conversely, Australia has tight monetary policy and a strong metals/commodities backdrop. Diverging central bank paths (BoE cutting, RBA holding/tight) plus a commodity boom favors the Aussie Dollar over the British Pound. LONG AUD / SHORT GBP. A collapse in global commodity demand (specifically China). |
Bloomberg Markets
Lagarde Reported to Leave ECB Before Term End...
|
|
Feb 16
|
|
$0.71
$0.706564
-0.5%
|
LONG
|
Paul Dobson
Executive Editor, Bloomberg
|
Commodity market strength is lifting currencies in Latin America and Australia. Volatility in these markets is subdued compared to developed markets. The combination of a potentially weaker USD (due to Fed cuts back on the table) and strong commodity prices creates a "winning prospect" for carry trades and resource-linked currencies. LONG Emerging Market currencies and AUD. A resurgence in US inflation forcing the Fed to hold rates, strengthening the USD. |
Bloomberg Markets
Japan Posts Anemic Growth as Takaichi Eyes Sp...
|
|
Feb 05
|
|
$0.7
$0.706564
+0.9%
|
LONG
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The RBA became the first major central bank to hike rates in 2026, forced by a "swift reacceleration" of the Aussie economy and inflation bouncing to near 4%. This explicit tightening contrasts sharply with the Fed's expected easy money policy. The RBA's active tightening cycle, driven by a hot economy, provides a strong fundamental tailwind for the Australian Dollar, especially when juxtaposed with a dovish US Fed. Long AUD/USD to capture the positive carry and capital appreciation from the RBA's tightening cycle relative to the Fed's easing. Australian economic reacceleration could prove temporary, leading the RBA to reverse course, or global risk sentiment could deteriorate, weighing on commodity-linked currencies like AUD. |
Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence
|