| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Tony Czuczka
Editor, Bloomberg |
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is reportedly considering reopening sales talks with Paramount (PARA) to start a fresh bidding war, attempting to topple an existing deal with Netflix (NFLX). A renewed bidding war involving a strategic player like WBD implies a higher premium for the target asset (Paramount) as suitors compete. The inclusion of debt financing and breakup fees in competing offers strengthens the floor for the stock. LONG PARA (as the acquisition target), WATCH WBD and NFLX for volatility. Regulatory antitrust hurdles (DOJ) or deal collapse. | 21:39 | |
| LONG |
Paul Dobson
Executive Editor, Bloomberg |
Amazon is on its longest losing streak in 20 years, and Mega Cap Tech is under pressure due to fears about AI spending returns and business model disruption. The market reaction is described as "shoot first, ask questions later." The editor argues that the idea of AI immediately displacing incumbents (like switching off Windows overnight) is unrealistic. The transition will take time, allowing incumbents with cash (Amazon, Microsoft) to adapt rather than die. LONG (Buying the dip on exaggerated disruption fears). Continued compression in valuation multiples if AI capex yields remain low. | 6:07 | |
| LONG |
Paul Dobson
Executive Editor, Bloomberg |
Commodity market strength is lifting currencies in Latin America and Australia. Volatility in these markets is subdued compared to developed markets. The combination of a potentially weaker USD (due to Fed cuts back on the table) and strong commodity prices creates a "winning prospect" for carry trades and resource-linked currencies. LONG Emerging Market currencies and AUD. A resurgence in US inflation forcing the Fed to hold rates, strengthening the USD. | 53:42 | |
| AVOID |
Catherine Lim
Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence |
Chinese tech firms are pouring over 10 billion in incentives/subsidies into the market for the Lunar New Year. Companies are issuing profit warnings. While this boosts top-line consumption data for the holiday, it is a "cash burn" strategy to defend market share against new entrants. This directly erodes margins and profitability in the near term. AVOID (Margin compression risk outweighs temporary revenue bump). Consumption recovery is stronger/stickier than expected, driving volume that offsets margin pressure. | 77:44 | |
| LONG |
Stefan Angrick
Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics |
The Yen has strengthened below the 153 level. PM Takaichi won a strong mandate and is meeting the BOJ Governor. The political stability (Takaichi's mandate) removes friction for the BOJ to proceed with rate hikes. Nakao notes the Yen is fundamentally undervalued and that the BOJ must consider exchange rate stability alongside inflation. Angrick notes fiscal and monetary policies are aligned. LONG JPY (vs USD). US economic data re-accelerating, widening the yield spread again. | 1:36 | |
| LONG |
Paul Allen
Reporter, Bloomberg |
BlueScope reported earnings and announced a $310 million share buyback and dividends, despite rejecting a takeover offer last month. The company is aggressively returning capital to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) while winding down peak capital spend. This signals management confidence in cash flow and provides a floor for the stock price following the rejected bid. LONG (Capital return thesis). Global steel demand slowdown or rising energy costs. | — |