| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT | Nat | "The US is singling these companies out because it believes... [they are] providing some sort of support... to China's military." This designation acts as a "red line" for institutional capital. Even without immediate sanctions, the "warning to investors" creates a toxicity premium. The speaker notes that when Tencent was added to this list previously, shares fell "precipitously." SHORT or AVOID. The geopolitical overhang and "national security risk" label will force US-based funds to de-risk, driving price compression. The reporter notes they are "trying to get to the bottom of this mystery" and there was a request to withdraw the notice. If the designation is officially retracted/corrected, shares would likely squeeze higher. | — | |
| WATCH | Nat | "Tencent... has already been designated by the Pentagon on the list a year ago. And you'll remember we saw shares... fall precipitously." Tencent serves as the historical playbook for how the market reacts to the 1260H list. It is the lead indicator for sentiment in the sector regarding military affiliation. WATCH. Use TCEHY's price action as a gauge for how much "military risk" is already priced into the broader Chinese tech sector versus how much is specific to the new additions (BABA/BIDU). Sector-wide sell-off could drag TCEHY down in sympathy, even though it was already listed. | 1:03 |