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Feb 17
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$20.29
$19.62
-3.3%
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LONG
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Mohamed El-Erian
Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz / Warden Professor
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"This is a market that... will continue to be defined by three words: volatility, dispersion... Economic outcomes... will be less a function of economic and commercial logic and more a function of national security, geopolitics." The stabilizing era of globalization and the "Washington Consensus" has ended. The new regime is driven by fragmentation and political priorities (geoeconomics), which inherently creates more friction and market shocks than the previous efficiency-driven era. Long volatility as a structural hedge against increased geopolitical and economic dispersion. Periods of artificial calm or central bank interventions suppressing volatility temporarily. |
CNBC
Expect a lot of volatility as we go forward, ...
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Feb 02
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$16.34
$19.62
+20.1%
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WATCH
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Michael Burry
Substack author, Cassandra Unchained
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Burry explicitly states that "the volatility at present make it difficult to write with any depth before the situation significantly changes." This direct observation by Burry underscores that current market volatility is a significant, pervasive factor influencing market dynamics and investor decision-making. While he doesn't predict its direction, his emphasis on its presence and impact suggests it's a critical metric for all market participants to monitor. Given Burry's acknowledgment of high and rapidly changing volatility, investors should closely watch volatility indices (like the VIX) and related instruments. This monitoring can provide insights into market sentiment, potential systemic risks, and opportunities for hedging or tactical positioning in a fast-moving market. Burry does not specify whether he expects volatility to increase, decrease, or remain elevated. Volatility can be mean-reverting, and a period of high volatility might quickly subside, or it could persist and intensify. Watching the VIX is an observation strategy, not a directional trade, but misinterpreting its future trajectory could lead to poor investment decisions if a directional bet were to be made based on this observation alone. |
Cassandra Unchained
Short Thoughts: February 2, 2026
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