| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Volodymyr Zelenskiy
President of Ukraine |
"He cannot let go of the very idea of war... in reality he is a slave to war." Zelenskiy argues that the aggressor is psychologically incapable of de-escalation. If the war is driven by an existential obsession rather than rational geopolitical goals, the conflict will be prolonged. A "forever war" scenario necessitates sustained and increasing defense spending by NATO and Western allies to support Ukraine and replenish depleted stockpiles. LONG. The thesis supports a secular bull market for defense contractors and aerospace firms. A sudden, unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or regime change in Russia could lead to a rapid de-rating of the defense sector. | — | |
| AVOID |
Volodymyr Zelenskiy
President of Ukraine |
"We will not let other European nations go either." Zelenskiy explicitly warns that Putin's ambitions are not limited to Ukraine but extend to the broader European continent. This introduces significant geopolitical tail risk for European markets. If the conflict threatens to spill over or if Russia maintains a permanent aggressive posture against the EU, European assets warrant a higher risk premium compared to US counterparts. AVOID. The geopolitical overhang acts as a cap on valuation multiples for European indices. If the conflict remains strictly contained within Ukraine or ends sooner than expected, European equities could rally on relief. | — |