Will Bitcoin Drop to $50,000 This Summer?
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 17, 2026 at 16:00 UTC  |  8:05  |  CoinDesk
Speakers
Marcus Thielen — Founder and CEO, 10X Research

Summary

  • Bitcoin is currently in a corrective "Wave C" downtrend, with a price target of $40,000–$50,000 by Summer 2026 (coinciding with the FIFA World Cup).
  • Institutional ETFs are a major overhang; they accumulated ~$54 billion in Bitcoin at an average price of $90,000. These positions are deeply underwater, creating a risk of cascading redemptions and forced selling.
  • A "liquidity gap" exists between $70,000 and $90,000 due to the rapid ascent following the November 2024 election; the market is now falling back through this vacuum.
  • A potential bullish reversal may occur if Kevin Walsh (likely Fed Chair nominee) pivots to a dovish stance after confirmation, but the current market is pricing in hawkishness and reduced rate cuts.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
BTC
SHORT Marcus Thielen
Founder and CEO, 10X Research 		The speaker explicitly states, "I really think we're going to go to 50,000" and "expecting this summer to trade at 40 to 50K." He notes that the market fell into a "liquidity trap" below $87,000 and that "cascading liquidations... [are] actually the beginning of a downtrend." The rapid rally from $70k to $90k in late 2024 left a volume gap (thin liquidity). As prices reverse, there is little support to stop the fall. Furthermore, the "B-wave" of the correction is ending, and the destructive "C-wave" is beginning, driven by a lack of new buying and forced unwinding of leverage. SHORT Bitcoin targeting a bottom in the $40k-$50k range by Summer 2026. A surprise dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve or unexpected massive inflows into ETFs could invalidate the bearish thesis. 0:31
BITCOIN /BITCOIN/CRYPTO ETFS
AVOID Marcus Thielen
Founder and CEO, 10X Research 		ETFs bought ~$54 billion worth of Bitcoin at an average price of $90,000. They are currently "underwater by 10 billion... literally 30 billion too long right now." Institutional investors are sensitive to PnL. As these positions remain underwater, the risk of redemptions increases. Redemptions force ETF issuers to sell spot Bitcoin, creating a negative feedback loop that suppresses price further. AVOID long exposure to Spot Bitcoin ETFs until the overhang clears or the $40k-$50k base is established. Institutional investors may have longer time horizons and refuse to sell, stabilizing the price. 1:14
US MACRO /LIQUIDITY
WATCH Marcus Thielen
Founder and CEO, 10X Research 		The market sold off as the probability of Kevin Walsh becoming Fed Chair increased (perceived as hawkish). However, Thielen notes, "he's not going to rock the boat now... but I think then he's going to come out and he's going to be dovish." The current sell-off is partly driven by the repricing of rate cuts (fewer cuts expected). If Walsh is confirmed and subsequently signals a dovish policy (rate cuts/liquidity injection), this will be the macro catalyst for the next bull run. WATCH for Walsh's confirmation hearings and subsequent policy statements to flip from Short to Long. Walsh may actually be hawkish, prolonging the bear market. 3:01