V — Former SEC / Web3 Legal Expert (2 trade ideas)

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Date Ticker Direction Thesis Source
Feb 18, 2026 LONG Physical coercion (muggers forcing transfers) is forcing fintechs like Revolut to implement time-delays and "reversible" features. Pure, instant, irreversible self-custody is becoming too dangerous for the average retail user due to physical threats. The market will shift back toward centralized, custodial intermediaries (like Coinbase) that can offer "safety friction" (delays, identity verification) that hardware wallets cannot. Long compliant custodians as the "safe haven" for retail wealth against physical extortion. "Not your keys, not your coins" philosophy remains strong among crypto natives. Unchained (Chopping Block)
Crypto Power, Political Pressure, and Real-Wo...
Feb 13, 2026 AVOID V highlights the danger of the "Control" definition: "If we can upgrade the vault, does that constitute control? What if we can pause withdrawals...?" Peter confirms that under proposed Section 301, protocols deemed "Non-Decentralized" (due to admin keys) could be forced to register as Broker-Dealers. Most current DeFi projects are not immutable; they have multisigs, pause buttons, and upgradeability. These features place them squarely in the regulatory crosshairs as "Non-Decentralized Protocols." They will face the impossible choice of registering as a Broker-Dealer (which a smart contract can't do) or facing enforcement actions. Avoid DeFi tokens where the team retains admin keys or "governance" acts as a proxy for control. Regulatory definitions may soften to allow for "security councils" or emergency pauses without triggering Broker-Dealer status. Unchained (Chopping Block)
Why Regulatory Clarity for Developers Will De...