TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions
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15:54
Sep 03
Sep 03
Author notes Treasury's 10-year issuance and buyback of longer-dated paper alongside a 30-year.
Author notes Treasury's 10-year issuance and buyback of longer-dated paper alongside a 30-year auction, framing it as market mechanics rather than a directional call.
15:06
Sep 03
Sep 03
The article argues that $40 trillion U.S. debt plus higher interest expense, larger deficits, more Treasury supply, and higher required yields forms a negative feedback loop for long-duration Treasuri
The article argues that $40 trillion U.S. debt plus higher interest expense, larger deficits, more Treasury supply, and higher required yields forms a negative feedback loop for long-duration Treasuries unless the Fed resorts to yield-curve control.
Risk: If the Fed does implement yield-curve control or aggressive QE, nominal long-duration Treasuries could rally short-term, but with significant currency/inflation risk.
13:45
Sep 03
Sep 03
Dowd forecasts lower bond yields ahead, warning that the cause will be unwelcome for markets.
Dowd forecasts lower bond yields ahead, warning that the cause will be unwelcome for markets and the economy.
13:37
Sep 03
Sep 03
Bond income attractive because everyone hates bonds.
She favors moving into the intermediate part of the Treasury curve, rather than staying in money markets/ultra-short bonds or taking excess long-end volatility in 30-year Treasuries. She sees an upside ceiling in yields because mortgage rates near 7%, weak housing, firmer oil prices, and higher U.S. yields versus the rest of the world are self-limiting forces.
HIGH
13:10
Sep 03
Sep 03
Long-dated Treasuries are an incredible deal.
The bond bear market is a sentiment-driven 'mind virus': inflation is falling and economic data such as payrolls, JOLTS, and PMI are deteriorating, while the $2 trillion deficit is only about 6% of GDP versus 12% in 2010. Everyone measures bond supply but ignores demand; a risk-off event would send money into bonds. He has moved a large share of his own money into long bonds as a three-to-five-year hold and calls 5.2-5.3% on 30s and 4.7% on 10s an incredible deal.
HIGH
12:56
Sep 03
Sep 03
Author agrees the Fed cannot control long-end yields.
Author agrees the Fed cannot control long-end yields, framing Treasury buybacks as a duration swap and focusing on the upcoming issuance mix as the key driver.
LOW
12:36
Sep 03
Sep 03
GPIF repatriation could pressure U.S., French bonds
If GPIF and other Japanese pension funds repatriate foreign holdings, they could sell U.S. Treasuries and French government bonds, putting pressure on those markets. France has about 60% foreign ownership of government bonds and more price-sensitive holders, while the US has roughly 25%; Japanese investors have been sticky but could follow a GPIF change.
MED
12:16
Sep 03
Sep 03
AI issuance keeps Treasury yields elevated
AI-related capital expenditure is yield-agnostic and heavy AI-related issuance is likely to keep coming to market, creating competition for capital and keeping upward pressure on Treasury yields for the foreseeable future. Current yield levels are close to fair value and not at a level that would trigger intervention.
HIGH
11:36
Sep 03
Sep 03
HSBC raises its US Treasury yield forecasts citing a more hawkish Fed outlook and persistent.
HSBC raises its US Treasury yield forecasts citing a more hawkish Fed outlook and persistent fiscal deficits driving a steeper yield curve.
11:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
US Treasuries face upward yield pressure.
He interprets the Treasury Secretary's and New York Fed president's comments as political rather than reassuring; rising yields reflect fiscal debt burden and supply-driven inflation, and corporate bond supply is crowding out Treasuries, so the US Treasury market faces upward yield pressure.
MED
10:40
Sep 03
Sep 03
Schroders Plc has increased its holdings of longer-dated US Treasuries.
Schroders Plc has increased its holdings of longer-dated US Treasuries, indicating belief that yields have nearly peaked after the recent selloff.
10:06
Sep 03
Sep 03
Bearish bonds on term premium risk
Hamza Ayub says he is bearish bonds because the US curve has risen without much term premium or interest rate volatility, real bond yields have gone up while inflation expectations are stable, and he sees the term premium potentially seeping into interest rate volatility, making him not very positive on bonds despite high carry.
MED
10:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
Rising yields create long-term bond opportunity.
He says the current rise in bond yields is not a disorderly bond dumping but is creating a rare long-term fixed-income opportunity: the MOVE index remains below its long-term average, the speed of rate increases and drawdowns are far milder than in 2022, and fixed-income managers such as PIMCO's global bond CIO and Steven Miller see current yields as attractive for long-term bond and fixed-income investors.
MED
08:27
Sep 03
Sep 03
Long-term bonds are an opportunity now.
The rise in U.S. Treasury yields is gradual and driven more by strong nominal growth and normalization than by inflation panic. Bond market volatility is below stress levels, and fixed-income managers quoted in the article argue this is one of the best long-term bond opportunities in a decade; fixed income investors should not panic but consider duration at these yields.
MED
08:03
Sep 03
Sep 03
Yields rise further; bond prices fall
Global bond yields are likely to rise further because we are in a higher interest-rate environment, more developed-market central banks are likely to keep raising rates, and bond prices are grinding lower even though coupon income cushions holders. The move is gradual but points to continued downside for bond prices.
HIGH
07:22
Sep 03
Sep 03
Author frames global bond yield spikes and gold outperformance as evidence of fiat collapse.
Author frames global bond yield spikes and gold outperformance as evidence of fiat collapse, a macro commentary without explicit positions or trade calls.
LOW
06:55
Sep 03
Sep 03
Bond selloff creates high-quality income.
The bond selloff has created fixed income opportunities: investors can get almost 5% yield over 10 years and around 6% yields in high-quality US dollar credit with little default risk, and she does not expect US inflation to run amok again.
HIGH
06:50
Sep 03
Sep 03
US yields near top; add duration.
The firm believes US yields are close to a top. It was short duration for a long time and that worked, but it is now considering adding duration. Inflation expectations are stable around 2.4%, and high yields are driven more by growth and debt than by inflation.
HIGH
05:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
The US economy shows reduced sensitivity to Fed rate hikes.
The US economy shows reduced sensitivity to Fed rate hikes, requiring more aggressive increases to combat inflation and tame long-dated yields, which is negative for bonds.
04:56
Sep 03
Sep 03
Bond valuations now offer attractive compensation.
Long-end term premium stress will persist until fiscal normalization, but current valuations and carry compensation in bond and fixed-income products are sufficient to offset potential capital losses, creating an attractive macro setup for bonds generally.
MED
04:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
Global bond markets are reported to be crumbling in an orderly fashion according to a Wall.
Global bond markets are reported to be crumbling in an orderly fashion according to a Wall Street Journal article.
03:11
Sep 03
Sep 03
Author suggests a small allocation to long-term treasuries and TIPS makes sense for the first.
Author suggests a small allocation to long-term treasuries and TIPS makes sense for the first time since COVID, but frames it as portfolio diversification rather than a directional trade.
LOW
01:51
Sep 03
Sep 03
Avoid long-duration nominal Treasury bonds.
Hanke says investors should stay away from bonds, especially long bonds, because money supply growth is accelerating (7.9% YoY versus 5.4% last year) and with a 12-24 month lag that will push inflation and bond yields higher. He expects the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields could rise another 50 basis points into a 'red zone', with additional pressure from the Iran war, fiscal deficits, and bond vigilantes.
HIGH
00:08
Sep 03
Sep 03
Treasuries, gold, real estate, Europe diversify AI.
J.P. Morgan constructed an AI factor thematic basket and found that many assets now move together with the AI buildout, making true diversification difficult; the few return streams less tied to AI are Treasuries, gold, core real estate, and European equities.
HIGH
20:15
Sep 02
Sep 02
Fiscal deficits push Treasury yields higher.
He warns the U.S. is running out of fiscal space: it is borrowing $2 trillion on a $7 trillion budget, half of borrowed money goes to debt interest, and the bond market is already pushing long-dated yields higher. He sees future borrowing difficulty, austerity, and tax increases as a real economic risk.
HIGH
19:53
Sep 02
Sep 02
Author previews an upcoming macro/micro discussion focused on AVGO earnings reaction.
Author previews an upcoming macro/micro discussion focused on AVGO earnings reaction, ISM Services impact on bonds, and NFP positioning without stating personal positions.
18:04
Sep 02
Sep 02
Avoid duration and de-risk stocks.
The Fed is making a policy mistake by shifting toward multiple rate hikes into a weak one-and-a-half percent economy and an oil shock; Treasury yields are rising because of Fed expectations and risk premia, not inflation, so investors should avoid bond duration and start de-risking equities.
HIGH
17:37
Sep 02
Sep 02
Treasuries and dollar have no substitute.
Ben argues he is not afraid of a financial crisis from government debt because there is no substitute for US Treasuries and the US dollar is the global reserve currency. In a safety-seeking environment, investors would still buy Treasuries and dollars, and he sees the bigger debt risk as political rather than financial.
HIGH
17:11
Sep 02
Sep 02
Treasury yields should stabilize and decline
Lutnick expects the bond market to stabilize better than people imagine because restored tariffs will generate $300B-400B a year, reduce the budget deficit, lift GDP growth back above 3%, and the Iran economic pressure will be effective; he expects rates to stabilize and decline over the next six months.
MED
16:53
Sep 02
Sep 02
Bonds are buy for long-term investors
David Zervos says current levels are good for long-term investors to get involved in the bond market. He argues the rise in yields is about rising real rates from a large capital call and expected future productivity growth, not inflation expectations, Fed credibility, dollar collapse, or chaos. He also says the long-run impacts of this investment are highly disinflationary, and rate-hike excitement is overblown, even if yields could break a little higher first.
HIGH
About TLT Analyst Coverage
Buzzberg tracks TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) across 146 sources. 380 bullish vs 274 bearish calls from 612 analysts. Sentiment: predominantly bullish (4%). 2415 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days: 30 bullish, 23 bearish, 129 watch. Latest voices: ces921, Quoth the Raven, zerohedge.