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20:24
Jul 22
Jul 22
META
▾
MED
Meta first to cut CapEx spending
Meta Platforms will be the first among the major tech hyperscalers to slow down capital expenditure spending, unlike Alphabet and Amazon, which are expected to continue heavy AI-related investments for longer.
META WATCH
MED
20:18
Jul 22
Jul 22
CNBC
1h
GOOG
▾
HIGH
Alphabet leads hyperscalers on cloud monetization
Alphabet is the best positioned hyperscaler because of mid-60% cloud growth, a historic turnaround, enterprise AI monetization, strong search and Gemini performance, and rising capex that is increasingly showing monetization, setting a positive tone for Microsoft, Amazon and Meta earnings.
GOOG LONG
HIGH
20:14
Jul 22
Jul 22
CNBC
1h
URA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nuclear power meets AI data center demand.
Nuclear power is the single greatest form of baseload carbon-free power. AI is driving a huge global surge in electricity demand, and nuclear should support the power needs of data centers. He supports the reported U.S.-Saudi civilian nuclear deal to provide carbon-free energy and to avoid reliance on China or Russia. The deal has been worked on across administrations in a non-political manner.
URA LONG
HIGH
20:04
Jul 22
Jul 22
SF 1ST
▾
HIGH
Stifel stock cheap, buybacks over acquisitions.
Stifel's stock is undervalued relative to private market valuations, trading at 8x EBITDA versus 15x for private deals, which makes share buybacks more attractive than acquisitions. The wealth management business is durable, AI will drive productivity gains, and fund banking is a strong growth area.
SF LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jul 22
Jul 22
Wealthion
1h
WTI 1ST
GSG 1ST
DBC 1ST
ARGT 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI boom increases oil demand structurally.
Oil is the world's largest single commodity, and the speaker is very bullish on how the AI boom will increase demand for oil. AI-driven logistics in the oil and gas supply chain are already improving efficiency, but the fundamental importance of oil to commerce ensures sustained demand. If oil stops flowing, all commerce stops, underscoring its critical role.
WTI LONG
Commodity stocks are undervalued with rotation ahead.
Commodity equities are at record low valuations relative to the market. Consolidation in mining and oil and gas sectors will boost stock prices first, followed by a rotation into commodity stocks in single-digit years as it becomes painfully obvious that supply is inadequate even for modest growth. Governments will eventually relax regulatory impediments, and capital flows will follow.
GSG LONG
Commodities are entering a long-term bull market.
A long-run commodities bull market is coming, driven by surging energy demand from AI, insufficient growth in production capacity for oil and metals, and eventual resolution of major geopolitical conflicts (Ukraine, Iran). The boom will be capped by technological efficiency and increased global competition, keeping inflation manageable.
DBC LONG
Argentina is a growing energy and minerals play.
Argentina is emerging as a major player in oil, gas, and minerals, with investments already underway. Political reforms under President Milei are likely sustainable and will deliver low inflation and GDP growth, creating a stable and attractive environment for energy and mineral resource development.
ARGT LONG
HIGH
19:28
Jul 22
Jul 22
XLF 1ST
▾
MED
Financials attract activists, unlocking value.
Financial companies are increasingly targeted by activists because they have stagnant valuations, collections of diverse businesses ripe for simplification, and significant cash on books, creating opportunities for capital allocation and returning capital to investors, which should drive share price appreciation.
XLF LONG
MED
19:17
Jul 22
Jul 22
BITO
▾
LOW
Clarity Act passage supports digital assets.
The Clarity Act, providing a regulatory framework for digital assets, will eventually pass because 'it's when, not if,' and such clarity is necessary for the industry, with work still needed on tax definitions and holding periods.
BITO WATCH
LOW
18:45
Jul 22
Jul 22
ETH 1ST
BTC
ETH/BTC
▾
HIGH
Ethereum is historically undervalued and bottoming.
Ethereum is trading about 17% below its realized price (cost basis), placing it in a historically undervalued zone that has marked price bottoms. The risk/reward is attractive, with limited downside near $1,200 and upside toward $5,300. This suggests Ethereum is forming a bottom and presents a good buying opportunity.
ETH LONG
Bitcoin rally is a seasonal bear market bounce.
The recent Bitcoin rally to $66K is likely a seasonal bear market rally driven by July's historical strength. The broader bear market remains intact, with resistance around $72K (trader's on-chain realized price) that has capped previous bear market bounces. Realized losses are now dominating, indicating late-stage bear market, but further downside is expected before a bottom.
BTC AVOID
Watch for ETH/BTC extreme undervaluation signal.
The ETH/BTC MVRV ratio and exchange inflow ratio have fallen from overvalued levels but are still in a neutral zone, not yet at extreme undervaluation. Historically, when these ratios reach extreme undervaluation (e.g., MVRV ratio below 0.4), it signals Ethereum is about to outperform Bitcoin. This is a setup to watch for a bottoming signal that would trigger relative outperformance.
ETH/BTC WATCH
HIGH
18:16
Jul 22
Jul 22
Thread Guy
3h
SHAW
CBRS
IGV
ETH
IBM FLIP
▾
MED
Holding Shaw on Ashenbrunner's conviction.
He is holding Shaw because he trusts Leopold Ashenbrunner's judgment more than his own, and despite the stock not looking great, he won't sell believing Ashenbrunner's longer-term view is superior.
SHAW LONG
Cerebras technicals look strong.
Cerebras is showing strong price action with a 'god candle' and a good high time frame setup; the strength is a positive sign for continuation.
CBRS LONG
IGV software shows no strength.
The IGV software ETF has been stuck in a perpetual dip with no follow-through on any bounce; structural breakouts fail, and there has been no strength continuation over a long period.
IGV AVOID
Crypto strong, Bitcoin and Ethereum bullish.
Crypto is looking strong with clear continuation, smart money is forming similar bullish theses, and Bitcoin/Ethereum are holding up well, suggesting the rally can persist.
ETH LONG
BTC LONG
IBM chart is horrifying.
IBM's chart looks horrifying on the high time frame after a massive drop, suggesting further weakness and a terrible technical picture.
IBM SHORT
Nebius looks strong all things considered.
Nebius looks really good all things considered, having staged a strong reversal and appears to be recovering well from prior dips.
NEBIUS LONG
XPL above 0.11 is interesting trade.
XPL token is interesting above the 0.11 level, and he is actively trading it.
XPL LONG
MED
18:13
Jul 22
Jul 22
18:05
Jul 22
Jul 22
CNBC
3h
GLD 1ST
NG 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold long-term bull market early stage
Gold is in the early stages of a long-term bull market, driven by loss of faith in fiat currencies, gold's emergence as the world's most sought-after reserve currency, and continued strong demand from central banks and the private sector.
GLD LONG
NovaGold deeply undervalued gold in ground
The best way to invest in the gold bull market is early-stage gold mining stocks, specifically NovaGold, which holds 40 million ounces of indicated and measured gold resources against a $4.2 billion market cap, implying only $119 per ounce of gold in the ground—less than 3% of the current gold price—making it an extremely undervalued gold equity.
NG LONG
HIGH
18:05
Jul 22
Jul 22
CNBC
3h
GOOG
▾
MED
Alphabet earnings test AI spending thesis
Alphabet's earnings and capex outlook will be a critical test for the broader AI trade. Investors are watching for strong Google Cloud revenue growth (whisper near 70%) to justify the doubling of capital spending, while resilient search advertising remains essential to fund the buildout. The results will likely move Alphabet and other mega-cap AI names.
GOOG WATCH
MED
17:47
Jul 22
Jul 22
RSP
SMH 1ST
EUFN 1ST
XLF 1ST
IEF 1ST
▾
HIGH
Equal-weight S&P 500 breaking out bullish.
The bull market is broadening out, with the S&P 500 Equal Weight index breaking out and catching up while the headline index remains stable. This reduces concentration risk and presents an opportunity for outperformance in equal-weight strategies, as 71% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average and the market is broadening without damaging the headline index.
RSP LONG
Semis cheap on surging AI earnings.
Semiconductor earnings have tripled over the past year, driving the forward P/E down to 14x. If the AI boom is structural rather than cyclical, this low valuation and strong earnings growth make semiconductors attractive despite the correction. The fundamentals remain strong, and fast money flows confirm momentum, but the secular AI buildout supports a structural bull case.
SMH LONG
European banks: cheap, high yield, uncorrelated.
European banks offer a 7% yield, an 88% payout ratio, trade at a 10x P/E, and are only 11% correlated to the Mag 7. Their performance has kept pace with AI themes, making them a compelling, boring, high-yield diversification play in this boom era.
EUFN LONG
US financials: high payout, AI beneficiary.
S&P 500 Financials have an 84% payout ratio, a 5% yield, and are potentially large beneficiaries of the AI buildout because they hold vast customer data and operate on inefficient legacy rails that AI can improve. This gives them a dual role as high-yield value and an AI‑adjacent play.
XLF LONG
10-year Treasury yield likely to rise.
In a fiscally dominant era, yields face upside risk rather than downside risk. The 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 5% as term premium expands, making bonds positively correlated to equities and putting bond prices at risk. This environment favors a short duration stance.
IEF SHORT
Gold cheap but awaiting a catalyst.
Gold has become inexpensive relative to global liquidity and money supply trends, but currently lacks a catalyst because central banks are in tightening mode and AI is absorbing all speculative bandwidth. Once a catalyst emerges—such as renewed central bank buying or fast money rotation—gold could reprice higher.
GLD WATCH
HIGH
17:39
Jul 22
Jul 22
GOOG FLIP
SMH
SKYY
TSLA
WFC
▾
HIGH
Alphabet cloud to deliver big beat.
Alphabet's cloud segment will show a big sequential acceleration this quarter, driving a large earnings beat. Cloud revenue is the key monetization metric for AI spending, and the company's earlier equity raise supports the capex trajectory. Consensus capex of $300 billion for 2027 is much higher than expected, but a cloud beat justifies the valuation.
GOOG LONG
Overweight semiconductors, multi-year visibility.
Semiconductors remain overweight. Despite taking some tactical profits after a strong rally, multi-year earnings visibility from Asian suppliers gives comfort that EPS growth over 100% can continue into 2027. Capex is expected to grow 70% this year and 30% next year, supporting demand.
SMH LONG
Hyperscalers near-term risk/reward looks better.
The risk/reward for hyperscalers has improved near term. UBS has closed its underweight position and moved to neutral. If this earnings season shows more signs of AI monetization, investors could re-rate the group upward. In the short term, some rotation between hyperscalers and semiconductors is likely, but both can work longer term.
SKYY WATCH
Tesla comeback with revenue over 20%.
Tesla is in the early stages of a comeback. The company beat Q2 EV deliveries and posted strong production. Revenue is expected to grow over 20% in Q2, an improvement from 16% previously, and gross margin estimates are above the Street. The EV recovery creates a stronger foundation for future growth in autonomous vehicles and robotics. Cybertruck is not a major volume driver, but the new Model YL variant could add ~100,000 incremental units in the U.S.
TSLA LONG
Wells Fargo growth story, big opportunity.
Wells Fargo is a growth story now that the asset cap has been removed. The bank is expanding its consumer and commercial businesses, building its investment bank toward a top-5 ambition, and seeing double-digit revenue growth and 25% EPS growth. The U.S. economy remains strong, with consumers and businesses in good financial condition, and Wells Fargo is 'big-time bullish' on the U.S. The company is focused on sustainable, high-return growth without taking outsized risks.
WFC LONG
AT&T AI positioning to lift valuation.
AT&T is uniquely positioned to handle AI workloads thanks to investments over the past five years. The company's networks are indispensable for future AI environments. The market does not yet reflect this, and when the cash flows materialize, the valuation will correct itself.
T LONG
HIGH
17:31
Jul 22
Jul 22
CNBC
4h
GE 1ST
CRWD 1ST
DDOG 1ST
MSFT 1ST
CIBR 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid GE at current rich valuation.
Not adding to GE Vernova because the stock is trading at nearly 80 times EBITDA, margins are not robust in a very capital-intensive business, and competition will eventually come. However, long-term backlog may turn into cash flow.
GE AVOID
Cyber spending resilient, own CRWD and DDOG.
Cybersecurity spending remains essential for enterprises even as they reconsider other SaaS spending due to AI disruption, benefiting Crowdstrike and Datadog. Nothing has changed this dynamic.
CRWD LONG
DDOG LONG
Microsoft bottoming, relative outperformance in July.
Microsoft may see relative outperformance in July and may be bottoming due to its overwhelming balance sheet and market force.
MSFT LONG
Cyber demand grows, buy CIBR ETF.
Cybersecurity as a whole is full of opportunity, demand will only grow, and cyber companies do not need to change business models as much as other SaaS. Recommends the cybersecurity ETF CIBR.
CIBR LONG
HIGH
17:27
Jul 22
Jul 22
GSG
BNO
AI-themed stocks
FXY 1ST
US Dollar Index (DXY)
▾
HIGH
Watch commodities for upward pressure.
Broad commodities are worth watching because China is depleting inventories and will soon restock, oil supply shocks are building, and inflationary pressures are re-emerging globally.
GSG WATCH
Crude oil prices will rise further.
Oil supply disruptions are intensifying due to closures of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. The crude oil market is in steep backwardation, with spot prices well above futures, indicating severe physical shortages. Backwardation in gasoline and diesel is even more extreme. China is beginning to replenish depleted inventories while U.S. production and SPR drawdowns are near limits. These factors will drive oil prices higher.
BNO LONG
Avoid AI stocks amid growing fatigue.
AI fatigue is emerging as speculative mania unwinds. South Korean retail investors are facing margin calls on leveraged AI plays, fewer new buyers are jumping on the bandwagon, and upcoming earnings could disappoint. AI-related stocks are unattractive.
AI-themed stocks AVOID
Short yen versus dollar.
Japan's monetary policy is misunderstood. Money supply growth is anemic, so inflation will fall, not rise. Japanese bond yields will come down, and the yen carry trade will stay attractive, causing the yen to continue depreciating against the dollar.
FXY SHORT
Long U.S. dollar.
The U.S. dollar is very strong and this strength will continue at least in the short run, supported by relative yield differentials and persistent carry trade inflows from Japan.
US Dollar Index (DXY) LONG
Gold is cheap, target $6,000.
Central banks, especially China, are buying gold far more aggressively than official numbers suggest. Gold is cheap, and the $6,000 target remains in place. Headwinds from higher rates and a strong dollar may delay, but will not prevent, the rally.
GLD LONG
Buy Japanese bonds, yields will fall.
Contrary to central bank and market forecasts, Japanese inflation will decline because money supply growth remains very low. As inflation falls, Japanese bond yields will fall, making long JGB positions attractive.
JGBUX LONG
Sell U.S. bonds, yields going higher.
U.S. money supply growth is accelerating (Divisia M4 at 6.7%), which means elevated inflation is already baked in. The Fed will be forced to tighten policy further, pushing U.S. bond yields higher. Short U.S. Treasuries are warranted.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
17:14
Jul 22
Jul 22
16:51
Jul 22
Jul 22
CNBC
5h
T
▾
HIGH
AT&T stock is a great buying opportunity.
AT&T reported a fantastic quarter with accelerating growth in strategic accounts, fiber, and post-paid wireless. The company is using its strong cash position to accelerate share buybacks into the current year, doubling the 2026 repurchase target to $10 billion. Management views the stock as suppressed and a great buying opportunity, believing the multiple should be higher given strong business performance and AT&T's role in building AI network infrastructure.
T LONG
HIGH
16:21
Jul 22
Jul 22
16:12
Jul 22
Jul 22
15:36
Jul 22
Jul 22
RSP
VGK
EUFN
DXJ 1ST
MAGS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Overweight equal-weight S&P for broadening.
The market is in a broadening phase; the equal-weight S&P is still a beneficiary as the earnings bar is much lower for broad market names compared to recent quarters, and he remains overweight this area until positioning gets too extended.
RSP LONG
Overweight European equities on rotation.
Overweight Europe as part of a rotation out of emerging markets and Asia, benefiting from the broadening trade and lower relative earnings expectations.
VGK LONG
Buy European banks as laggard play.
European banks are a specific overweight within the Europe allocation, playing the catch-up in the broadening market theme.
EUFN LONG
Buy dip in Japanese banks.
The recent dip in Japanese banks does not make sense given their fundamentals, presenting a buying opportunity within the global rotation.
DXJ LONG
Buy Magnificent Seven on low earnings bar.
Rotating into the Magnificent Seven as the earnings bar — both on numbers and narrative — is very low, making them attractive near term compared to the lofty expectations in other areas.
MAGS LONG
Crude oil prices will escalate further.
Oil prices will continue to escalate because flows from the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reestablished, refined product stocks are critically low and drawing rapidly, and spare refining capacity is inaccessible; demand destruction will eventually occur but high prices will cause significant economic damage.
BNO LONG
Short Tesla on cash burn and robotaxi risk.
Underperform rating on Tesla because the company faces daunting KPIs for its robotaxi business, nearly $20 billion in cumulative cash burn over the next three years, and regulatory hurdles that make a SpaceX merger unlikely to rescue the stock in the near term.
TSLA SHORT
Buy AT&T on AI infrastructure and execution.
AT&T is executing strongly with record subscriber adds, accelerating buybacks, and unique positioning from its converged fiber and wireless network that is indispensable for AI workloads; the stock is in a dislocation and the market will eventually recognize its value.
T LONG
HIGH
15:19
Jul 22
Jul 22
Thread Guy
6h
SKM 1ST
CBRS 1ST
CoreWeave FLIP
NEBIUS FLIP
BTC
▾
HIGH
Short SKM, Anthropic margins pressured.
Short SK Telecom (SKM) as a proxy bet against Anthropic. Chinese open-source models will continue to pressure the market share, pricing and margins of Anthropic and OpenAI, making it unlikely they can IPO above $1 trillion or maintain durable moats. SKM holds a stake in Anthropic that is a large portion of its valuation.
SKM SHORT
Long compute, margins shift to infra.
Open-source models fundamentally shift margin percentage and margin dollars from the model layer to the infrastructure layer. If we are structurally short compute, margins at the model layer don't matter; the real value accrues to compute providers. Cerebras, Neoclouds, CoreWeave, Nebius, and Nvidia are direct beneficiaries of this shift.
CBRS LONG
CoreWeave LONG
NEBIUS LONG
NVDA LONG
Long Bitcoin, short memory rotation.
A rotation from memory stocks to crypto is underway. Memory earnings beats are not rewarded, while crypto (Bitcoin) shows renewed strength. Long Bitcoin and short DRAM / memory stocks as a pair trade to capture this relative momentum.
BTC LONG
DRAM SHORT
Follow smart money, hold Shaw.
Buying and holding Shaw because the speaker is not smarter than Leopold Ashenbrunner, who picked it. Trusting the expert's conviction and holding despite a poor entry, expecting it to work out.
SHAW LONG
Geopolitics drive Brent oil up.
Brent crude oil is breaking higher due to escalating geopolitical tensions. Trump's toll on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran threat to strike US tech infrastructure create a supply disruption thesis that has pushed Brent up steadily.
BNO LONG
Crypto trend strong, go long BTC/ETH.
Bitcoin and Ethereum look very strong on high time frames. Many smart people are converging on a bullish thesis for crypto. The trend is continuing and a breakout above key levels is anticipated.
ETH LONG
HIGH
15:17
Jul 22
Jul 22
BNO
▾
MED
Brent oil unlikely to break $100.
Hostilities in the US-Iran war will not sustain at a clip strong enough to push Brent crude above $100 per barrel; $100 is a 'magic number' cap, limiting oil upside from current ~$90 levels.
BNO WATCH
MED
15:14
Jul 22
Jul 22
14:46
Jul 22
Jul 22
Bankless
7h
MU
000660.KS
GEV 1ST
▾
HIGH
Memory sell-off temporary, fundamentals still strong.
Memory stocks have sold off sharply (Micron down ~24% in a month) despite overwhelming demand fundamentals. DRAM prices are still rising (up 20% in July), and SK Hynix has already locked in 40% of its 2027 profits via long-term agreements with 13-15 customers, indicating sold-out supply. Micron trades at just 7x forward earnings with 350% revenue growth and 85% gross margins. The sell-off is driven by profit-taking and rotation into energy, not weakening demand. Oversupply is not expected until ~2030, making this pullback temporary and memory an attractive trade.
MU LONG
000660.KS LONG
GE Vernova leads AI power infrastructure.
GE Vernova is positioned at the center of the AI electricity trade, producing turbines and grid equipment. The stock has risen 300% in three years with orders doubling year-over-year to $7.1 billion in 2025 and backlog extending to 2031, offering highly predictable revenue. It has avoided the permitting issues that hit Bloom Energy, and has major deals with Microsoft and OpenAI. As data center power demand doubles in 24 months, GE Vernova is the old-staple, proven supplier poised for potentially exponential growth.
GEV LONG
HIGH
14:27
Jul 22
Jul 22
Triple Net Lease Investing
▾
HIGH
Triple net lease: income, inflation hedge, upside.
Triple net lease investing provides long-term contractual cash flows that escalate with or above inflation, protections against revenue drops and expense spikes, and retention of upside from mission-critical hard assets. It benefits from structural demand drivers like physical AI/robotics and aging demographics (medical office). In a higher-for-longer rate environment, it emphasizes current return, making now a particularly interesting time to invest. It also offers inflation hedging and tax efficiency.
Triple Net Lease Investing LONG
HIGH
14:22
Jul 22
Jul 22
XLE 1ST
WFC
▾
HIGH
Bullish on US economy and markets.
The US economy and markets present significant upside. Consumer spending is growing, delinquencies are down, savings are up, and employment remains strong. Wages for Wells Fargo clients are rising faster than inflation, providing a powerful support for consumer performance. Scharf says he is 'big time bullish on the US' and plans to keep investing heavily in the country.
XLE LONG
Wells Fargo poised for sustainable growth.
Wells Fargo is entering a new growth phase now that the asset cap has been lifted. The bank is growing its consumer, commercial, wealth management, and investment banking businesses on a level playing field, with a disciplined focus on sustainable growth and high returns. Recent results showed 25% earnings-per-share growth and double-digit revenue growth across all segments, and the company sees huge opportunity to continue expanding and improving returns.
WFC LONG
HIGH
14:17
Jul 22
Jul 22
14:00
Jul 22
Jul 22
IEF 1ST
GLD 1ST
SMH 1ST
US Listed Asset Managers
JGBUX 1ST
▾
HIGH
10-year Treasury yield heading to 10%
Political shift toward wage growth, full employment, and heavy government spending without matching taxation will drive inflation and shrink foreign demand for US Treasuries. The era of building large pools of capital that suppressed rates is ending, and the 10-year Treasury yield is headed to 10% as real rates need to be around 3% to keep capital in deposits rather than real assets.
IEF SHORT
Gold rises as reserves shift from Treasuries
The freezing of Russian foreign reserves has eroded trust in holding foreign sovereign bonds as reserves. Countries will naturally shift reserves back to gold, as was the norm before 1980. This flow out of Treasuries into gold benefits gold prices, and the metal will act as a hedge in a higher-inflation regime.
GLD LONG
Semiconductors are the new oil, prices stay high
Modern economic growth is driven by semiconductors and compute, making them the new oil. AI capex by large tech companies is defensive spending to protect their moats against disruption, and they are unlikely to cut spending because the first to stop investing loses. Supply is restricted by export controls on China, keeping chip prices elevated.
SMH LONG
Listed asset managers face rate headwinds
Private credit and private equity firms built their models on ever-lower interest rates. With rates now rising and pools of capital shrinking, these businesses face structural headwinds. Even with credit spreads at all-time lows, liquidity issues have appeared, signaling asset quality problems. Listed asset managers are particularly vulnerable and could continue to decline.
US Listed Asset Managers AVOID
Japanese bonds weaken as yields rise further
Japanese government bonds have been a leading indicator for US Treasuries, selling off early as investors recognized the political shift toward wage support and spending. The pressure for higher wages in Japan erodes appetite for fixed income, and yields are likely to keep rising as domestic investors demand more compensation for expected wage inflation.
JGBUX SHORT
HIGH
13:58
Jul 22
Jul 22
WFC
KBE
▾
HIGH
Wells Fargo performing strongly, outlook positive.
Wells Fargo delivered strong quarterly results with 25% earnings per share growth and double-digit revenue growth across all businesses. The company has moved past regulatory constraints, can now grow its balance sheet, and is building a disciplined investment bank with ambition to be top five. The franchise quality and management focus are driving performance, aided by favorable market conditions for banks.
WFC LONG
Banking sector enjoys very good times.
Current market conditions are very favorable for banks. If a bank is not performing well in this environment, it likely has execution or strategy problems, not an industry-wide issue. This implies a supportive backdrop for the banking sector.
KBE LONG
HIGH
13:33
Jul 22
Jul 22
13:30
Jul 22
Jul 22
Korean semiconductor materials/parts/equipment sector
Korean export-heavy consumer goods stocks
▾
HIGH
AI cycle drives undervalued semiconductor equipment rebound
The AI investment cycle is entering a phase where semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment (소부장) companies will see order and earnings growth as capex expands. Many of these stocks have been severely sold off due to forced liquidation from single-stock leveraged ETF disruptions, with some halving from May levels, even as their forward earnings estimates keep rising. This disconnection creates a strong undervaluation, and once the distortion normalises, they should re-rate and deliver substantial returns.
Korean semiconductor materials/parts/equipment sector LONG
Export-driven Korean consumer stocks are undervalued
As corporate earnings improve, household income should rise next year, supporting domestic consumption. Korean consumer stocks with high export exposure (above 30%, ideally 50%) have historically seen both earnings growth and multiple expansion when export share crosses key thresholds. Many of these export‑driven consumer names are now trading at depressed valuations (P/E 5‑10x vs historical 20‑30x) due to market‑wide indiscriminate selling, offering a compelling normalisation opportunity.
Korean export-heavy consumer goods stocks LONG
HIGH
13:11
Jul 22
Jul 22
CNBC
8h
SPY
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 headed to 7000-8200 on broadening.
U.S. equity market is displaying a healthy broadening beyond mega-cap tech, with ~90% of companies beating Q1 earnings expectations and profit margins expanding. AI investment is beginning to show productivity gains across multiple sectors. The Fed is expected to remain on hold, supporting earnings-driven gains. JPMorgan's base-case S&P 500 target is 7,000 by end of current year and 8,200 by mid-next year.
SPY LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jul 22
Jul 22
NFLX
IMAX
NKE
SPY
▾
HIGH
Netflix undervalued, strong margins, buy
Netflix is the only heavily sold-off tech stock that Michael fully understands; it has a premium brand, 30% margins, still growing, and is now trading at a market multiple, making it an attractive buy despite decelerating growth and content business risks.
NFLX LONG
Nolan box office fuels IMAX profits
IMAX is Michael's biggest position because Christopher Nolan's films and the broader box-office rebound are driving massive premium-format ticket sales, with The Odyssey delivering the highest pre-sales ever and IMAX capturing 24% of tickets.
IMAX LONG
Nike lost its moat, avoid
Nike has lost its brand moat, the fundamentals are deteriorating, and the stock market is signaling that the company will not regain its former glory, making the stock one to avoid.
NKE AVOID
S&P 500 not a bubble, stay long
The S&P 500 is not in a bubble because forward P/E ratios are compressing, the market already prices in unsustainable semiconductor earnings, and the broad market advance is supported by rising earnings and margins, not irrational exuberance.
SPY LONG
HIGH
12:42
Jul 22
Jul 22
T
▾
HIGH
AT&T growth, convergence, AI networks undervalued
AT&T is delivering record wireless and fiber net adds driven by years of investment, accelerating revenue and EBITDA growth expected through 2028. The convergence of broadband and mobile lowers churn and increases customer value. The company's symmetrical fiber networks are critical for AI workloads, making AT&T indispensable. The CEO believes the stock is dislocated due to rotation into AI plays and is accelerating share buybacks, expecting valuation correction as the market recognizes AT&T's unique position.
T LONG
HIGH
12:30
Jul 22
Jul 22
EWY
058610.KQ FLIP
TSLA 1ST
277810.KQ
000660.KS
▾
MED
KOSPI bottoming, not yet trend reversal.
KOSPI failed to achieve a trend reversal today but is in a bottoming process, building a base. Sideways movement would be constructive and holding positions is acceptable. A confirmed trend change still requires a breakout.
EWY WATCH
Robot stocks bouncing sharply on catalysts.
Beaten-down robot stocks like SPG (actuator supplier) and Rainbow Robotics (robot maker) are showing explosive bounces on any positive news, with SPG surging over 30% in two days. The market is rotating into them as the Samsung defense robot deployment plan adds a catalyst. These stocks can rebound 50% from lows as short-term momentum plays, though they are high-risk and can drop quickly.
058610.KQ LONG
277810.KQ LONG
Tesla earnings could bring positive catalysts.
Tesla's upcoming earnings are being overlooked by the market, but Lee expects positive catalysts such as Optimus robot updates and FSD announcements that could drive the stock.
TSLA LONG
Foreign buying supports Samsung, SK hynix upside.
The AI capex cycle is intact; hyperscalers are racing to build superior AI, and even if near-term capex guidance disappoints, the US government will backstop the industry. Korean memory semiconductor suppliers Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are direct beneficiaries, making any dips a bigger buying opportunity.
000660.KS LONG
005930.KS LONG
Naver pursuing AI cloud upside.
Naver is actively pursuing funding in Canada for its Neocloud/AI factory business. With Jensen Huang's expressed affection for Naver Cloud and potential Nvidia collaboration, Naver has upside as a domestic AI cloud platform player despite limited capital.
035420.KS LONG
SK Eternix powers AI data center buildout.
SK Eternix is positioned to handle power supply for massive AI data centers, with a 15GW plan implying enormous long-term investment. This makes it a key beneficiary of the AI data center buildout.
475150.KS LONG
Doosan Enerbility institutional buying supports upside.
Doosan Enerbility saw a meaningful increase in trading volume and institutional buying, signaling accumulation and positive momentum.
034020.KS LONG
Cosmetics stocks rally when yields fall.
Cosmetics stocks (APR, Dalba, Korean Kolmar) have strong export fundamentals but have been weighed down by high interest rates and rising oil prices, which compress consumer disposable income. If the US 10-year yield drops below 4.3%, these oversold names are poised for a sharp rebound.
278470.KS LONG
161890.KS LONG
Dalba LONG
Hyundai Motor trend not reversed, avoid.
Hyundai Motor has not reversed its downtrend; it remains below key moving averages and needs to reclaim 450,000 won just to stop declining, with 480,000 won required for a confirmed trend change. It is currently risky to buy.
005380.KS AVOID
Shipping stocks may gain on disruption.
Geopolitical disruption in the Middle East could spike shipping freight rates, benefiting shipping stocks. However, current low market liquidity limits immediate upside, making it a situation to monitor.
Korean shipping sector WATCH
MED
12:16
Jul 22
Jul 22
CNBC
9h
T
▾
HIGH
Accelerating growth and aggressive buybacks make AT&T attractive.
AT&T has the best broadband product built on fiber, a getting-stronger wireless business, and converged customers that reduce churn. New competitors like Starlink are very late and face decades of catch-up infrastructure investment indoors. AT&T already handles 98%+ of traffic and does not need a satellite partner for distribution; it is in a very strong competitive position with the right assets.
T LONG
HIGH
11:55
Jul 22
Jul 22
SMCI 1ST
PEGA 1ST
SPY 1ST
SDZNY 1ST
SPLV 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI server demand remains strong
Super Micro raised its gross margin outlook and reported a record backlog, indicating very strong, solid demand for AI servers. This is reassuring for the AI trade ahead of big tech earnings.
SMCI LONG
IT spending shift hurts legacy providers
Companies are shifting spending from traditional IT towards AI and chips, causing deferrals in IT spending. Pegasystems missed earnings estimates echoing IBM's warning, reflecting a sector in trouble.
PEGA AVOID
Prefer equities over bonds and credit
Equities are preferred over fixed income. Bonds no longer provide the same diversification buffer, sovereign yields are not attractive, and credit spreads are incredibly tight. The portfolio view is overweight equities, underweight credit, and neutral bonds.
SPY LONG
US Corporate Credit AVOID
TLT AVOID
Trump tariffs threaten generic drug margins
Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on generic drugs could push up costs and squeeze already thin margins, weighing on generic drug makers like Sandoz.
SDZNY AVOID
Defensive stocks hedge tech concentration
Low volatility and high dividend yield stocks underperformed during the recent rotation and can provide a nice balance against heavy tech exposure. Historically, during tech-led drawdowns, these defensive stocks delivered positive returns (up 10-15%) while tech plunged.
SPLV LONG
HDV LONG
Watch semis for positioning unwind
AI semiconductor stocks have had incredible earnings growth but also enormous positioning and investor leverage. The space could stabilize and resume progress if positioning normalizes and earnings continue to deliver, but near-term caution is warranted.
SOX WATCH
HIGH
11:45
Jul 22
Jul 22
SMH 1ST
Value and quality stocks
XLE 1ST
JPY/CAD
U.S. government bonds
▾
HIGH
Avoid frothy AI semiconductor supply chain
There is a lot of froth in the AI supply chain that has driven the recent semiconductor selloff. Investors should lean away from these frothy areas and avoid chasing overpriced AI-adjacent names.
SMH AVOID
Long value-quality stock overlap
Value stocks are a good strategy and quality stocks also look cheap; the overlap of quality and value is unusually cheap because they have been disrupted by the AI story, presenting an unusual opportunity.
Value and quality stocks LONG
Long energy as geopolitical hedge
Given geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, commodity-related areas, especially energy, provide a hedge. She advocates having exposure to these sectors despite headline risks.
XLE LONG
Long JPY vs CAD on BOJ tightening
The Bank of Japan will have to tighten monetary policy, making the Japanese yen attractive. She is long the yen against the Canadian dollar to express this view.
JPY/CAD LONG
Long US Treasuries, first value in years
For the first time in three years, U.S. government bonds show value. Rate expectations have become more realistic, with markets now pricing in hikes instead of cuts, offering trading opportunities despite a stagflationary backdrop.
U.S. government bonds LONG
Long equities on earnings momentum
Earnings momentum remains strong and the cyclical outlook is positive, supported by government spending that boosts nominal growth. She maintains a positive tilt on equities overall.
VT LONG
Long EM debt on credible policies
Emerging market economies have pursued more credible policies, making EM debt attractive. She warns that passive EM equities are highly correlated with the AI trade, so debt offers a better diversification vehicle.
EMB LONG
Long Santander on strong execution
Santander is on track to meet or exceed its three-year KPI targets, with strong footing. The bank is integrating Webster and TSB, has increased cash distribution from 25% to 35% of profits, and will return excess capital above 13% to shareholders.
SAN LONG
Long oil, upside asymmetry
Oil market asymmetry is to the upside now. Traditional inventory models are broken, and the options market points to significantly higher prices. Scenarios of elevated fighting support further upside, and the probability of a full resolution is tiny.
WTI LONG
Long European gas, storage critically low
The European gas market is extremely vulnerable heading into winter. Storage levels are at 53%, 15% below normal, and 30% of European gas must come from LNG, which faces heightened competition because 20% of global LNG is inside the Strait of Hormuz. Even if the Strait opens, Europe will not reach target storage levels before winter.
UNG LONG
Long copper on defence and AI demand
Copper looks great, supported by increasing military expenditures, stockpiling, and AI infrastructure demand. Marginal production cost is around $10,000 vs. a price of $13,000. Any tariff-related selloff would be a buying opportunity.
COPPER LONG
Avoid gold short term
Gold should be avoided in the short term. The metal is not yielding anything and is reacting differently now. He prefers to wait until a Middle East resolution and lower inflation concerns before re-entering, though he remains medium-term bullish.
GLD AVOID
HIGH
11:30
Jul 22
Jul 22
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
10h
005930.KS
005380.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Earnings growth intact, buy the dip now.
The sell-off in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is driven by emotional, technical, and margin-related noise, not fundamental deterioration. Earnings are still rising quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, forward P/E is under 10x, and major capex plans by chipmakers signal confidence in a multi-year upcycle. Supply glut fears are premature (2-3 years away). At current depressed prices, buying the dip offers a very attractive risk/reward; the time to accumulate is now with a contrarian mindset.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Post-earnings strength signals robot re-rating.
Hyundai Motor may begin to receive a robot-business valuation premium if its stock holds the 400,000–500,000 won level after upcoming Q2 earnings. A post-earnings resilience would signal that the market is starting to price in its military/labour robot pipeline rather than treating it purely as an auto stock.
005380.KS WATCH
HIGH
11:16
Jul 22
Jul 22
Polymarket: CLARITY Act passes in 2025
▾
MED
CLARITY Act odds much higher than Polymarket
After Patrick Witt disclosed the White House's ethics concession and the status of negotiations, Robert Leshner's personal estimate of the CLARITY Act passing rose to 70-75%, far above the 46% implied by Polymarket, indicating the prediction market contract is undervalued.
Polymarket: CLARITY Act passes in 2025 LONG
MED
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