Speaker assigns a ~66% probability to a U.S. military escalation to "finish the job," involving taking control of the Strait of Hormuz to force regime collapse, as walking away would be a political and economic disaster. An escalation would involve intensified bombing, potential ground operations, and a direct confrontation to open the strait, guaranteeing a significant and potentially prolonged disruption to Gulf energy supplies. The most likely geopolitical path forward points towards deeper conflict and sustained energy supply risk, not a clean de-escalation. This supports a structurally higher oil price environment. The U.S. opts for a face-saving ceasefire and withdraws, accepting Iranian control of the strait and a lower, but persistent, risk premium.