Has ETH/BTC Bottomed and Who Leads From Here?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 22, 2026 at 18:45  |  39:53  |  Milk Road Macro
Speakers
Julio Moreno — Head of Research, CryptoQuant
John Gillen — Co-Host, Milk Road Macro

Summary

Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, presents a data-driven analysis of Ethereum's valuation relative to Bitcoin using five on-chain metrics. He finds Ethereum is undervalued against its own cost basis and shows early signs of a bottom, though full confirmation is pending. Relative to Bitcoin, Ethereum may underperform short-term before eventually outperforming once extreme undervaluation signals appear. Bitcoin's current rally is seen as a seasonal bear market bounce with further downside likely.

  • Julio Moreno analyzes ETH/BTC bottom using five metrics: realized price, MVRV ratio, exchange inflows, ETF holdings, and spot volume.
  • ETH is 17% below its realized price, a historically undervalued zone with favorable risk/reward.
  • ETH/BTC MVRV and inflow ratios are neutral, not yet at the extreme undervaluation that has historically preceded outperformance.
  • ETF holdings ratio hints at improving relative demand for ETH, while spot volume shows speculative interest has washed out.
  • Bitcoin's July move to $66K is interpreted as a seasonal bear market rally, with resistance at $72K and the bear market not over.
  • Overall, ETH looks constructive but unconfirmed; BTC remains in a late-stage bear market requiring further caution.
Ideas
Julio Moreno Head of Research, CryptoQuant 7:10
Ethereum is historically undervalued and bottoming.
Ethereum is trading about 17% below its realized price (cost basis), placing it in a historically undervalued zone that has marked price bottoms. The risk/reward is attractive, with limited downside near $1,200 and upside toward $5,300. This suggests Ethereum is forming a bottom and presents a good buying opportunity.
ETH HIGH
Julio Moreno Head of Research, CryptoQuant 10:45
Watch for ETH/BTC extreme undervaluation signal.
The ETH/BTC MVRV ratio and exchange inflow ratio have fallen from overvalued levels but are still in a neutral zone, not yet at extreme undervaluation. Historically, when these ratios reach extreme undervaluation (e.g., MVRV ratio below 0.4), it signals Ethereum is about to outperform Bitcoin. This is a setup to watch for a bottoming signal that would trigger relative outperformance.
ETH/BTC MED
Julio Moreno Head of Research, CryptoQuant 35:36
Bitcoin rally is a seasonal bear market bounce.
The recent Bitcoin rally to $66K is likely a seasonal bear market rally driven by July's historical strength. The broader bear market remains intact, with resistance around $72K (trader's on-chain realized price) that has capped previous bear market bounces. Realized losses are now dominating, indicating late-stage bear market, but further downside is expected before a bottom.
BTC MED
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This Milk Road Macro video, published July 22, 2026, features Julio Moreno discussing ETH, ETH/BTC, BTC. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Julio Moreno  · Tickers: ETH, ETH/BTC, BTC