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10:00
Aug 20
Aug 20
US Housing
XLE
BTC FLIP
Neo-clouds 1ST
MRNA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Leveraged US housing is an ideal inflation hedge.
Inflation is structurally returning over the coming years, and policymakers will suppress the cost of capital. US housing is highly attractive because it allows investors to lock in 30-year fixed-rate debt at 5x leverage without liquidation risk, serving as an ideal inflation hedge.
US Housing LONG
Supply constraints and geopolitics will drive oil higher.
Oil faces severe structural supply issues, draining global reserves, and persistent geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Energy equities like XLE are breaking out to new highs, which historically front-runs a major upward move in the underlying crude commodity, while positive roll yield provides carry.
XLE LONG
WTI LONG
Treasury yield suppression will drive hard assets higher.
The Treasury's aggressive buybacks of long-dated bonds funded by short-term bills acts as stealth QE and yield curve control. This inorganic suppression of yields will debase the currency and reignite inflation, making hard assets like gold and Bitcoin essential inflation protection.
BTC LONG
GLD LONG
Agentic workflows will drive demand for neo-clouds.
Neo-cloud providers are well-positioned for the next level of compute shortages driven by the rise of agentic workflows and multi-agent orchestration. Additionally, the Treasury's suppression of long-end yields helps keep hyperscaler credit spreads tight, supporting their financing.
Neo-clouds LONG
AI breakthroughs make healthcare an attractive defensive rotation.
Healthcare innovation is a defensive sector that outperforms during tech rotations. Breakthroughs driven by AI adoption, such as Moderna's cancer trials and Eli Lilly's developments, make biotech and healthcare highly attractive areas for capital rotation.
MRNA LONG
XLV LONG
LLY LONG
Treasury yield suppression will weaken the US dollar.
The Treasury's yield suppression and resulting debasement will weaken the US dollar. A weaker dollar acts as a headwind for foreign investors holding US equities due to FX hedging costs, making a short dollar position a direct way to play the debasement regime.
USD SHORT
Semiconductors face a reality check on peak margins.
The semiconductor sector is forming a bearish right shoulder pattern after reaching peak spending and 80% margins on AI capex bottlenecks. Once frontier AI labs stop juicing their numbers, the sector will face a reality check on growth and costs.
SMH AVOID
Short NASDAQ against long inflation protection assets.
While outright shorting tech is difficult because nominal numbers will rise due to debasement, pairing a NASDAQ short with long inflation protection is attractive. Foreign investors will likely rotate out of US tech as the dollar debases, causing the NASDAQ to underperform in real and foreign-currency terms.
QQQ SHORT
HIGH
10:00
Aug 12
Aug 12
Forward Guidance
10d
DBC 1ST
USD 1ST
TLT 1ST
BTC 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Risk-on reflation favors risk assets over bonds.
The macro weather model signals a risk-on reflation regime with a great short to medium-term outlook for stocks, gold, bitcoin, and commodities. Policy is running the economy hot (Paradigm C), creating reflation dynamics, rising neutral rates, and bond market imbalances that favor assets leveraged to nominal GDP growth and inflation, while the US dollar and bonds are expected to underperform.
DBC LONG
USD AVOID
TLT AVOID
BTC LONG
GLD LONG
HIGH
07:00
Aug 07
Aug 07
Forward Guidance
15d
GLD
Hyperscaler corporate bonds
URA 1ST
XLI 1ST
AI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold rallies on fiscal dominance pivot.
Gold is sniffing out the policy shift from hawkish Fed expectations toward fiscal dominance and stimulative interventions that weaken the dollar. The market had priced in rate hikes and Fed credibility, but behind-the-scenes Treasury actions (yen intervention without selling bonds, possible coupon issuance decreases) reveal a more dovish, liquidity-additive stance that should send gold higher.
GLD LONG
Hyperscaler corporate bonds offer huge yields.
The AI capex boom is now statecraft, and the government will keep volatility suppressed to sustain it. Hyperscaler corporate bonds (Oracle, Google) offer extremely attractive yields (8-9%) for investment-grade companies that are unlikely to go out of business. As the Treasury keeps the long end quiet and boomers seek real yield, these bonds are a steal.
Hyperscaler corporate bonds LONG
Nuclear power supercycle is coming.
State-directed capital is pushing nuclear power as the next big theme to achieve energy abundance and decouple from Middle East oil risk. A wave of late-stage fission, fusion, and SMR companies is about to come public, creating a nuclear supercycle that will benefit the sector enormously.
URA LONG
Industrials benefit from state-directed capex.
The shift toward state-directed growth and deglobalization makes industrials, machinery, and railroads strategically vital. These real-economy companies are the new backbone of the economy, benefiting from fiscal spending and reshoring trends in a way that will drive long-term outperformance.
XLI LONG
Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI win big.
Regulation will create a moat for incumbents with existing power grid access. Bitcoin miners that are transitioning to AI data center and high-performance computing will be huge winners because they control large energy contracts and can monetize them in an era of rising AI electricity demand and regulatory hurdles.
AI LONG
Bitcoin cleansing sets up next rally.
Bitcoin is going through a cleansing phase: the toxic maximalist culture is washing out, Saylor's dominance is fading, miner supply overhangs are abating, and new narratives will eventually emerge. The asset is setting up for a future rally, though the exact entry timing is unclear; it's a watch for now, but not a short.
BTC WATCH
HIGH
07:00
Aug 05
Aug 05
Forward Guidance
17d
STOCKS
CASH 1ST
U.S. Treasury curve steepener
WTI 1ST
2-Year SOFR futures
▾
HIGH
20/20/20/20/20 portfolio maximizes risk-adjusted returns.
A portfolio of 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate has the highest Sharpe ratio, returns ~9% annually since 1971, and suffers minimal drawdowns (worst -12% in 2022). It gives up only 2% annual return vs. stocks while drastically reducing volatility and emotional stress, providing a durable wealth-building solution.
STOCKS LONG
CASH LONG
XLRE LONG
GLD LONG
Yield curve steepener for 6–12 months.
Fed Chair Warsh intentionally held rates steady to steepen the yield curve, letting the long end sell off. This tightens financial conditions immediately and allows future short-rate cuts. The curve should keep steepening for 6–12 months, with Fed funds declining to around 3% while long-end yields stay elevated.
U.S. Treasury curve steepener LONG
Avoid oil; risk of fall to 60.
He has liquidated all energy positions. Oil could fall to $60–65 if the Iran conflict ends. The run has played out, and the technical picture points lower.
WTI AVOID
Long 2-year SOFR futures; no more hikes.
The market has 1.7 rate hikes priced in through June 2026, but Warsh will not hike and data will cooperate. He expects the hiking cycle to end and is positioned for rate cuts, making long 2-year SOFR futures an outright bet on falling short-term rates.
2-Year SOFR futures LONG
Long defensive sectors: healthcare and staples.
Healthcare and consumer staples have been performing well. If you like these defensive sectors, you are implicitly bearish on the rest of the market. They offer relative safety in a weakening economy.
XLV LONG
XLP LONG
Financials topping; no explicit XLF short.
Avoid XLF: the video thesis says financials are topping technically and could lead a broader sell-off, but the visible content does not state an explicit short position, puts trade, or direct short call.
XLF AVOID
HIGH
07:00
Jul 31
Jul 31
Forward Guidance
22d
TLT
SOXX FLIP
▾
HIGH
Long-end Treasury yields to rise further.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly wants to remove balance sheet accommodation that has suppressed long-end yields. By letting the long end price to fair value, the 30‑year yield could climb another 50‑100bps to 5.5‑6%, steepening the curve and tightening financial conditions enough to slow the economy, credit and equities. The price action during the press conference confirmed this deliberate strategy, even if the long-term resolve is uncertain.
TLT SHORT
Avoid semiconductors and AI trade near-term.
The AI and semiconductor trade was fueled by extreme leverage (retail 3x ETFs balloning AUM, Korean margin calls, a major levered fund liquidation) that caused a violent unwind and damaged the buyer base. The sector now faces a prolonged period of digestion and low-volatility chop, making it best to avoid for about six months to sidestep the brain damage, similar to how gold went through a long cool-down before resuming higher.
SOXX AVOID
HIGH
07:00
Jul 22
Jul 22
Forward Guidance
1mo
SMH 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI compute fundamentals strong, semis benefit.
AI compute fundamentals remain strong: GPU rental rates for both new and old chips are firming, cloud providers are raising long-term prices, and the compute layer is poised to capture value as efficiency trends shift demand away from frontier models. Memory demand is also surging due to longer contexts, multimodal data, and enterprise AI adoption, supporting the semiconductor supply chain.
SMH LONG
HIGH
07:00
Jul 17
Jul 17
Forward Guidance
1mo
VNQ 1ST
▾
MED
Bullish real estate in pro-business states.
Migration from anti-business, high-regulation states (e.g., New York, California) to pro-business, lower-cost states (e.g., Texas, Florida) is accelerating due to erosion of property rights, data center bans, and other policies. This creates a structural demand shift for real estate in the right jurisdictions, making him 'unbelievably bullish on real estate in the right places.'
VNQ LONG
MED
07:00
Jul 08
Jul 08
Forward Guidance
1mo
USD/JPY
GLD 1ST
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short USDJPY tactically into intervention
The MOF intervenes to cap dollar/yen around 162, creating tactical short opportunities. However, fundamentals favor a higher dollar/yen over time, so traders must take quick profits and not hold. The best shorts come during intervention episodes.
USD/JPY SHORT
Long gold as Fed hawkish pricing overdone
The market priced in aggressive Fed hikes under Warsh, pushing the dollar up and gold down (debasement trade unwound). However, Warsh's initial hawkishness is performative and he will likely turn more dovish. Sentiment metrics, including GLD options activity on WallStreetBets, show capitulation in gold, suggesting the debasement trade is washed out and gold can rebound.
GLD LONG
Avoid Bitcoin, no new narrative
Bitcoin's earlier narratives (store of value, digital gold, cash replacement) have all failed to deliver. Now it lacks a compelling reason to rally, and many investors have lost conviction. Without a new catalyst, Bitcoin may not see another major bull run for a long time.
BTC AVOID
HIGH
07:00
Jul 03
Jul 03
Forward Guidance
1mo
QQQ 1ST
MAGS
SOFR futures
GLD FLIP
MSTR
▾
HIGH
Avoid AI and semiconductor trades now.
The AI/semiconductor momentum trade is showing major cracks with a four-sigma factor implosion. Positioning was extremely leveraged, and catalysts like Meta selling excess compute and a memory efficiency breakthrough are triggering an unwind. With peak growth and inflation, the setup is dicey. Recommend extreme caution and a negative bias on tech.
QQQ SHORT
SMH SHORT
Sell Mag Seven bounces on AI unwind.
The Magnificent Seven are in a 'hurt locker' because an AI unwind reflexively hits their income from marking up AI lab valuations on their balance sheets. He plans to sell bounces in these names.
MAGS SHORT
Long SOFR to fade hawkish expectations.
The market is still pricing a small chance of hikes, but labor market weakness and rolling inflation argue against it. Fading this hawkishness via the SOFR complex is a good trade.
SOFR futures LONG
Buy gold as real yields peak.
With deficits still at 6% of GDP, debt climbing, and issuance being manipulated, the fundamental case for debasement assets is strong. As economic growth and inflation slow but stay sticky, gold and Bitcoin become much more attractive than over-owned AI bottleneck trades.
GLD LONG
Tactical long Bitcoin on bearish exhaustion.
Bearish sentiment on Bitcoin and especially MicroStrategy reached an extreme. With Strategy appearing to pause its buying, the removal of that selling pressure acts like taking a hand off a beach ball underwater, creating room for a tactical bounce even though the asset is not out of the woods.
MSTR LONG
BTC LONG
HIGH
07:00
Jun 29
Jun 29
Forward Guidance
1mo
10-year Treasury futures
2-year Treasury futures
XLV 1ST
TLT 1ST
XLP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short 2s, long 10s flattening trade
In the near term, the short end of the yield curve is moving higher while the long end is not moving as much, creating a bear flattener trade. This is driven by the immediate market reaction to the new Fed's hawkishness and the removal of forward guidance.
10-year Treasury futures LONG
2-year Treasury futures SHORT
Buy defensive sectors as Fed put dies
With the Fed put dead and less forward guidance, uncertainty rises, prompting a more defensive equity posture. Healthcare and consumer staples are shorter-duration equities that should benefit in this muddied environment where things are less clear.
XLV LONG
XLP LONG
Short long bonds on fiscal supply
Supply dynamics, term premium, the fiscal doom loop, and reduced foreign buying will push long-end Treasury yields higher over the longer term, making long-duration bonds unattractive.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
07:00
Jun 26
Jun 26
Forward Guidance
1mo
TLT 1ST
UGA 1ST
MAGS 1ST
IWM 1ST
SMH
▾
HIGH
Long Treasury bonds as yields fall.
We are traversing peak inflation and peak growth for the year. Long-end yields are plummeting because the market sees no growth or persistent inflation problems. The Fed is unlikely to hike after July, and the yield curve is flattening rapidly, supporting a sustained bond rally.
TLT LONG
Gasoline set to fall after summer.
Crack spreads are surging because finished gasoline products haven't followed crude oil lower. However, crude prices are restraining the supply chain and after peak summer driving season the gap will close, sending gasoline markedly lower.
UGA SHORT
Hyperscalers are broken growth stories now.
The Mag7 hyperscalers are being structurally re-rated lower. They have shifted from cash-flow-rich, buyback-heavy businesses to leveraged, capex-heavy entities with diminishing free cash flow and no clear path to win the AI race against open-source competition. Upside is very capped for the foreseeable future.
MAGS AVOID
Rotation into small caps gaining momentum.
As money exits large-cap tech, a replay of the post-2000 playbook is possible: capital rotates broadly into small caps that are trading at washed-out valuations. High dispersion and low implied correlation support a rotational bull market in smaller, more cyclical names.
IWM LONG
Semiconductors benefit as megacaps fade.
The Mag7 is on its last legs and fading hard. Capital is rotating out of those mega-cap names and into more speculative, cyclical pockets of the market, notably semiconductors, which are next in line to benefit from the AI capex boom and the broader rotation.
SMH LONG
S&P 500 building a major topping pattern.
With Mag7 representing 40% of the S&P 500, their long-term topping pattern and slow drift lower will eventually matter and could lead to a broader index top. For now the dispersion is healthy, but this is a setup worth watching for a potential index-level decline.
SPY WATCH
Eli Lilly pipeline transforming healthcare.
Healthcare innovation is finally accelerating after a lost decade. Eli Lilly is leading with GLP-1 drugs and a new single-shot therapy that permanently lowers cholesterol, representing genuine medical breakthroughs that should drive long-term growth.
LLY LONG
Bitcoin and MSTR crowded by productive capital shift.
Secular inflation is shifting capital toward productive real-economy investments and away from non-productive stores of value. Bitcoin's narrative as an inflation hedge is eroding and MicroStrategy's leveraged Bitcoin model looks unattractive when there are profitable alternatives to deploy capital.
MSTR AVOID
BTC AVOID
Precious metals are deeply undervalued now.
Peak hawkishness is fading; the market priced in too many rate hikes while break-evens collapsed. The dollar looks toppy and precious metals were annihilated by extreme narratives. The debasement trade, i.e. precious metals, is now good value as all the overly bearish positioning reverses.
SLV LONG
GLD LONG
Old economy sectors breaking to new highs.
Money is rotating out of high-flying growth/meme stocks and into old economy sectors. Industrials and banks are making new highs, credit spreads remain tight, and the policy setup is threading the needle without a systemic crisis. These cyclical old-school sectors are the place to be.
XLI LONG
KBE LONG
HIGH
07:00
Jun 19
Jun 19
Forward Guidance
2mo
SOFR futures
AIQ 1ST
GLD
BTC
MSTR
▾
HIGH
Fade Fed hikes, buy SOFR.
The Fed's dot plot signals hikes, but underlying inflation drivers (oil down ~30%, shelter peaking, tariffs unwound) point to disinflation. Market has front-run hawkishness with record shorts in SOFR; the capitulatory moment of peak hawkishness has passed, hikes won't materialize, so long SOFR / short-end Treasuries benefits as rates fall.
SOFR futures LONG
Buy AI bottleneck stocks.
AI capex cycle is fully intact with massive spending through 2030. High-yield credit spreads are not budging, providing free-money financing. Hyperscaler cash flows are strained, but money is rotating to AI bottleneck stocks (semiconductor equipment, memory, etc.) that are ripping higher. The trend is set to continue until credit spreads blow out.
AIQ LONG
Contrarian buy gold on extreme bearishness.
Gold sentiment has reached extreme bearish extremes: 6-month put-call skew near 10-year highs, CTA positions collapsed to the 1st percentile. The sharp pendulum swing from extreme bullishness to extreme bearishness sets up a contrarian buy signal for gold.
GLD LONG
Avoid Bitcoin, opportunity cost too high.
The AI productivity boom is creating real growth and a generational shift in capital allocation away from non-yielding assets. Bitcoin's opportunity cost is now too high compared to AI infrastructure investments and other productive real-world innovations.
BTC AVOID
MSTR bounce if liquidity concerns resolved.
MSTR is trading near liquidation value, not bankrupt. Management needs to raise cash to cover debt service and preferred dividends instead of continuing to lever up. If they address liquidity concerns, the whole capital structure could rally sharply; otherwise it's a slow bleed. The setup is growing more interesting as distress deepens.
MSTR WATCH
HIGH
23:12
Jun 17
Jun 17
Forward Guidance
2mo
SPY
EWY
▾
MED
Frothy speculation and hawkish Fed signal risk asset decline.
Widespread speculation, including high equity issuance, extreme valuations (e.g., SpaceX at $2 trillion), and leveraged momentum chasing, combined with a hawkish Fed and market pricing in rate hikes, historically coincide with major equity tops. Joseph Wang believes these factors point to a sustained and meaningful decline in risk assets.
SPY SHORT
KOSPI doubling signals frothy speculative top.
Korea's stock market (KOSPI) has doubled this year, reflecting extreme speculative froth that often precedes market tops and is expected to decline as part of the broader risk asset downturn.
EWY SHORT
MED
07:00
Jun 12
Jun 12
Forward Guidance
2mo
SPY 1ST
SOFR futures
GLD
WTI FLIP
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Equity squeeze from CTA deleveraging coming.
The VIX curve has inverted, indicating everyone is overhedged and scared. This historically is a strong contrary indicator; it is the time to buy risk assets. Centralized asset management and systematic flows make this pattern repeatable.
SPY LONG
Long SOFR futures fading priced hikes.
SOFR futures offer an asymmetric trade because the market has priced in two rate hikes over the next year, but fundamentals (declining real wages, no wage-price spiral, energy supply shock) do not support hikes. The Fed is likely to hold or cut, and even if they stay flat, the already-priced hikes will be priced out, generating gains.
SOFR futures LONG
Long gold as hawkishness is overpriced.
Gold has sold off on hawkish Fed fears and higher real rates, but the hawkishness is overdone. With no wage growth and supply‑driven inflation, real rates should decline, making gold a compelling asymmetric long that reflects the same view as fading rate hikes.
GLD LONG
Oil too high, demand destruction underway.
Oil prices are unsustainably high because demand destruction is accelerating at the consumer level due to elevated energy costs. This will weigh on the economy and oil prices, and makes a bearish case for oil.
WTI AVOID
Miners selling BTC to fund AI, avoid.
Bitcoin miners are selling their mined BTC to finance a pivot to AI infrastructure, as AI demand for power offers better economics. This miner selling creates supply pressure, keeping Bitcoin underperforming until an equilibrium is reached.
BTC AVOID
Avoid Mag7 equities due to dilution.
The Mag7 are underperforming due to record equity issuance, increasing debt, and low‑return AI capex that dilutes shareholders. Their share buybacks have reversed into share issuance, and the investment income from AI markups will decline. Avoid or short Mag7 as the trend continues.
MAGS AVOID
Long semiconductors over Mag7 names.
Instead of owning the Mag7 hyperscalers that are spending heavily on AI, buy the beneficiaries of that spending—semiconductors and memory. Memory is up 3x while Mag7 is down, as hyperscalers issue equity and debt to fund capex. The real AI trade is long the supply chain.
SMH LONG
HIGH
07:00
Jun 11
Jun 11
Forward Guidance
2mo
TLT
SPY FLIP
BTC
GLD FLIP
WTI
▾
HIGH
Rising yields make US Treasuries unattractive.
Inflationary war and large deficits are driving yields higher; the Treasury's shift to front-end issuance makes the US vulnerable to a spike in short-end rates, making Treasuries unattractive and likely to experience further yield increases.
TLT SHORT
Stocks overvalued, rising yields trigger repricing.
US equities are extremely overvalued (adjusted Warren Buffett metric at 65-year highs) and face rising bond yields from inflationary war and deficits, creating a terrible risk/reward setup and likely near-term repricing.
SPY AVOID
Gold and Bitcoin fall on near-term yields.
Bitcoin, like gold, benefits from the coming monetization of sovereign debt as the Fed is forced to print, and from global de-dollarization trends, making it a long-term beneficiary.
BTC AVOID
Gold and Bitcoin fall on near-term yields.
Ultimately, the debt overload forces the Fed to sacrifice the dollar or bonds; either path leads to monetization and devaluation, which heavily benefit gold, along with petro-gold dynamics and central bank buying.
GLD AVOID
Hormuz closure will spike oil prices.
The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed through the fall due to the Iran conflict, with global tank bottoms hitting and oil imports declining, causing oil prices to spike as physical shortage materializes.
WTI LONG
HIGH
07:00
Jun 03
Jun 03
Forward Guidance
2mo
WTI
EWY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oil prices face upward pressure
Expects oil prices to face upward pressure in late July/early August as SPR releases by the US and China run down. These releases previously offset inventory holes, but are finite. The market is giving the benefit of the doubt, but physical realities will need to be dealt with.
WTI WATCH
Korea trade is a no-brainer
Bullish on Korea as a country trade due to parabolic growth in semiconductors and exports, historically cheap valuations (P/E of 6 post-ceasefire), and the entire economy thriving. It is a no-brainer trade that has worked and remains cheap.
EWY LONG
HIGH
12:15
May 29
May 29
Forward Guidance
2mo
ETH
BTC FLIP
▾
HIGH
Ethereum is uninvestable in current environment.
Ethereum's token price does not capture growing network usage. Even long-time believers like David Hoffman have sold, citing the asset as uninvestable. The market structure is corrupted by Ponzi-like dynamics, and capital is flowing to AI infrastructure and away from crypto. The macro environment is unfavorable for crypto assets.
ETH AVOID
Bitcoin's macro environment is unfavorable.
Bitcoin is in a bear market. Macro conditions and market environment are not right for it to perform well. Capital is being sucked into AI infrastructure, similar to gold miners losing to tech in 2012. Artificial demand from financial engineering masks underlying weakness.
BTC AVOID
HIGH
14:00
May 21
May 21
Forward Guidance
3mo
SOFR futures
QQQ
XLE 1ST
TLT FLIP
▾
HIGH
Long SOFR futures for rate cuts
If yields continue rising, it will curb stocks and economic growth, eventually forcing rate cuts. Positioning for that scenario by going long SOFR futures (a bet on lower short-term rates) is an emerging idea tied to a steepening yield curve and a potential correction.
SOFR futures LONG
Nasdaq may top on IPO supply
A wave of massive IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, etc.) totaling trillions in market cap will come to market starting in a few weeks. This will absorb liquidity from tech exposure, causing the Nasdaq to potentially top out relative to the rest of the market.
QQQ WATCH
Long energy sector for cash flows
US oil and gas companies are printing cash from higher oil prices, have improved balance sheets, and are buying back stock, making the sector a strong performer. The strategic reserve drain and geopolitical risks support elevated oil prices, benefiting XLE.
XLE LONG
Short bonds on persistent inflation
Persistent inflation above 3.5% and soon above 4%, structural damage from energy price spikes, and lack of meaningful decline in inflation until back half of the year support short bond positioning. This was the highest conviction trade over the last few weeks, executed via TLT puts.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
07:00
May 15
May 15
Forward Guidance
3mo
NVDA
TLT
XLE
▾
HIGH
Watch NVDA on China chip sales.
If Nvidia is permitted to sell chips into China (even legacy models), it would significantly extend the runway for Nvidia's revenue and earnings, directly supporting equity indices that are heavily benchmarked to the stock. This is a catalyst worth watching closely, given the ongoing US-China summit negotiations.
NVDA WATCH
Short TLT as bond yield hedge.
Shorting long-duration bonds (via TLT or equivalents) is a direct hedge against the structural forces pushing yields higher: persistent inflation, strong growth, and Fed reluctance to tighten. The speaker argues that all the suppression and easing by policymakers makes the long-end problem worse, so short bonds profit from the eventual market-driven repricing.
TLT SHORT
Long XLE for inflation and growth hedge.
XLE (energy sector ETF) benefits from the current regime of elevated inflation and strong nominal growth, while also acting as a hedge against the risks of tighter monetary policy. The speaker is explicitly long XLE as a core position, citing its risk-adjusted outperformance in similar past environments.
XLE LONG
HIGH
07:00
May 13
May 13
07:00
May 08
May 08
Forward Guidance
3mo
GLD
BTC FLIP
CL1!
▾
HIGH
Gold bullish on China buying and inflation.
China is aggressively buying gold again, inflation is set to rise while the Fed remains sidelined, and midterm uncertainty provides additional catalysts. Gold should outperform in this environment.
GLD LONG
Sell Bitcoin, buy gold on catalysts.
Gold has strong catalysts from China buying, inflation, and policy uncertainty, while Bitcoin lacks similar support. Selling Bitcoin to buy gold is a favorable rotation.
BTC SHORT
Oil futures long due to depleting inventories.
Oil inventories are being drawn down rapidly due to exports and the Strait of Hormuz disruption, and restocking will drive prices higher. Longer-dated futures offer attractive carry and a structural floor, while selling long-dated puts monetizes elevated volatility.
CL1! LONG
HIGH
07:00
May 06
May 06
Forward Guidance
3mo
GLD 1ST
SILVER 1ST
VIX 1ST
COPPER 1ST
DBA 1ST
▾
MED
Avoid gold and silver.
Gold and silver have had a great run as dollar replacements, but the current supply-chain-driven inflation cycle does not favor them. They are unlikely to participate much further.
GLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
Bet on higher volatility, long VIX.
With the VIX low and markets moving 1–1.5% daily, betting on higher volatility is a sensible hedge. The VIX can't go much lower and the melt-up environment increases tail risks.
VIX LONG
Long copper for supply chain shortages.
Supply chain disruptions and demand for data centers make copper a critical commodity in short supply. It is likely to outperform as a real asset play.
COPPER LONG
Long agriculture commodities like sugar and wheat.
Agriculture commodities such as sugar and wheat are in short supply due to supply chain issues and are needed in the economy. They offer a long opportunity.
DBA LONG
Hedge with oil upside.
Oil is a critical supply shock that could lead to much higher prices if the disruption persists. He recommends hedging portfolios with oil upside exposure to protect against the inflationary and growth impacts.
WTI LONG
MED
07:00
Apr 30
Apr 30
Forward Guidance
3mo
USD/JPY
US 30-year Treasury
CLF24 1ST
QQQ 1ST
DBC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short yen, bonds, NASDAQ on Japan crisis.
Japan's unsustainable fiscal position, negative real rates, and inflation shock from the oil crisis make it impossible to defend USD/JPY at 160. This will cause a breakdown in global carry trades, leading to higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, and a selloff in risk assets. The most asymmetric positioning is to be short yen (long USD/JPY), short U.S. 30-year bonds, and short NASDAQ (or Japanese equities), as these will all benefit from the unwind.
USD/JPY LONG
US 30-year Treasury SHORT
QQQ SHORT
EWJ SHORT
Long December crude on supply issues.
Given the supply issues and volatility from Trump's tweets, a better way to play the oil supply crunch is to buy longer-dated crude oil futures (like December) to avoid whipsaw and capture the structural supply deficit as reserves deplete and producers remain under-incentivized.
CLF24 LONG
Own gold and commodities for intervention.
As the pain from rising yields and inflation becomes too great, authorities will step in, causing hard assets like gold and commodities to take the next leg higher. Owning them is a hedge against the regime shift.
DBC LONG
GOLD LONG
Prefer Brent over WTI due export ban.
With a potential U.S. crude export ban likely to suppress domestic WTI prices and boost international Brent, the most asymmetric positioning is to favor international producers and Brent over domestic U.S. producers and WTI.
WTI SHORT
BNO LONG
HIGH
07:00
Apr 24
Apr 24
Forward Guidance
4mo
Crude Oil December futures
USD/JPY
DXY
AIQ 1ST
GOLD
▾
HIGH
Long December oil as hedge.
Long December oil contracts as a barbell hedge against long compute positions. The oil supply shock from geopolitical tensions (Iran) and strong economic data support higher oil prices. December contracts are still elevated and provide protection if inflation pressures force a policy error.
Crude Oil December futures LONG
Yen to weaken past 160.
The yen will weaken past 160 due to Japan's heavy reliance on energy imports, the oil shock, and the Bank of Japan's limited ability to defend the currency. A break above 160 would likely trigger a dollar wrecking ball scenario and cause credit stress, but the fundamental flow is for yen weakness.
USD/JPY LONG
Dollar to strengthen further.
The US dollar is putting in a massive base and will move higher. Dollar dominance is rising due to US energy independence, military strength, and lack of alternatives. The geopolitical environment and oil supply shocks further reinforce dollar strength, and the Fed cannot suppress it indefinitely.
DXY LONG
AI infrastructure multi-year secular growth.
AI capex boom is a multi-year secular growth driver that is reshaping the economy. The demand for data centers and compute infrastructure is creating a sustained investment cycle that will last years. While short-term positioning is overbought and due for a washout, long-term holders in shares can benefit from the structural trend.
AIQ LONG
Gold needed if inflation allowed.
If policymakers choose to suppress the dollar and allow inflation to run, investors need to own gold and hard assets to preserve purchasing power. The structural imbalance between capital and labor, plus ongoing fiscal stimulus, supports a long gold position as a macro hedge.
GOLD LONG
HIGH
21:58
Apr 22
Apr 22
Forward Guidance
4mo
Risk Assets
TLT
ETH
WTI
BTC
▾
HIGH
Liquidity cycle inflecting lower, risk assets vulnerable.
The global liquidity cycle is inflecting lower, moving into a late-cycle speculation phase that precedes turbulence, which is difficult for risk assets. This is driven by the real economy accelerating and absorbing liquidity from financial markets.
Risk Assets AVOID
Yield curves to flatten by mid-year.
Yield curves are poised to flatten by mid-year, contrary to consensus expecting steepening, because tightening liquidity (due to real economy absorption) increases demand for safe assets and reduces term premia, leading to long rates rising slower than short rates.
TLT WATCH
Crypto to suffer as liquidity falls.
Crypto assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana) are highly sensitive to liquidity and serve as a barometer. With global liquidity inflecting lower, crypto prices are likely to face significant headwinds and underperform.
ETH AVOID
BTC AVOID
SOL AVOID
Commodities, especially oil, to rise late cycle.
Commodities, especially oil, perform well late in the liquidity cycle as the real economy accelerates. The gold-oil ratio tends to revert to 20, implying significant upside for oil if gold remains elevated, and rising commodity prices are what ultimately destroy liquidity in the late cycle.
WTI WATCH
DBC LONG
Cyclical value, resources, energy to outperform.
Cyclical value stocks, resources, and energy sectors outperform in the speculation phase of the liquidity cycle as the real economy gains traction and commodity prices rise.
XLY LONG
XLB LONG
XLE LONG
HIGH
07:00
Apr 22
Apr 22
Forward Guidance
4mo
BTC FLIP
ETH 1ST
SOL 1ST
XLE
DBC
▾
MED
Liquidity decline pressures crypto assets.
Global liquidity is declining and crypto is the most liquidity-sensitive asset. As liquidity falls, crypto prices will face headwinds. The chart shows a 13-week lead of global liquidity over a basket of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, indicating tougher times ahead.
BTC AVOID
ETH AVOID
SOL AVOID
Energy stocks outperform in speculation phase.
In the speculation phase of the liquidity cycle, cyclical value stocks, resources, and energy outperform. This is driven by the real economy gaining traction and commodity markets moving higher.
XLE LONG
Commodities thrive at liquidity cycle peak.
Commodities do well at the peak of the liquidity cycle. We are at or just past that peak, so commodities have been on fire and will continue to benefit from the accelerating real economy.
DBC LONG
MED
14:07
Apr 16
Apr 16
Forward Guidance
4mo
SPY
IYT 1ST
SMH FLIP
XLE
GOLD
▾
HIGH
Long equities ahead of midterm fiscal stimulus.
With consumer sentiment at all-time lows and the midterm elections approaching, there is significant room for fiscal stimulus to boost the economy and stock market. The current budget deficit (around 5% of GDP) leaves room for additional spending, which will likely be deployed to support Main Street and, by extension, equity prices.
SPY WATCH
Focus on AI, gold, energy, and transports.
Concentrate on sectors that have underlying demand regardless of the macro bipolarity, such as AI infrastructure, gold, energy stocks (which are buying back stock), and Dow transports, because they are less affected by the extreme market structure and macro volatility.
IYT LONG
SMH LONG
XLE LONG
GOLD LONG
HIGH
07:00
Apr 15
Apr 15
Forward Guidance
4mo
EWZ 1ST
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Brazil sugar exporters benefit from Coca-Cola switch.
If Coca-Cola were to switch from fructose to real sugar, Brazil would be the best source to fill the increased sugar demand due to its proximity and capacity, making Brazilian sugar exporters appear undervalued.
EWZ LONG
Steep oil contango signals oil price bottom.
A steep contango in oil prices has historically been a reliable indicator of a bottom in cash crude oil prices because producers leave oil in the ground and sell futures, creating scarcity in the present market.
WTI LONG
HIGH
07:00
Apr 10
Apr 10
Forward Guidance
4mo
SMH 1ST
IGV 1ST
GOLD 1ST
SPY 1ST
USO 1ST
▾
Speaker stated "SMH is less than 1% from an all-time high" and "anything associated with this compute demand is just breaking out right now." He also said "the market is underpricing the demand for compute here." AI scaling is real and creating a nonlinear surge in demand for compute (GPUs, semiconductors), while supply is constrained (GPU availability collapsing). LONG because semiconductor exposure (via SMH) is a direct beneficiary of a sustained, underappreciated AI-driven compute boom. A broad equity market downturn that drags down all sectors, including semis, or a sudden slowdown in AI infrastructure investment.
SMH LONG
medium-term
Speaker stated the IGV software ETF "looks like death," breaking its daily, weekly, and monthly moving averages. He explicitly said "AI is actually eating software's lunch." The disruptive force of AI is causing premium compression and anticipated earnings deterioration in the traditional software sector, which is not yet reflected in earnings numbers. AVOID because the software sector faces structural headwinds and de-rating as capital and value shift toward AI infrastructure and compute. Software sector earnings surprise to the upside, triggering a short squeeze and reversal in the downtrend.
IGV AVOID
medium-term
Speaker is "getting pretty bullish on gold again," noting it's "holding up phenomenally." He highlighted a junior gold miner being taken out at a 79% premium as evidence of underlying sector strength. Gold acts as a necessary hedge against currency debasement and financial market manipulation. Miner margins are expanding dramatically with spot gold prices well above break-evens. LONG gold as a diversifier and store of value in an environment of suppressed free markets and potential dollar weakness. A sharp rise in real yields or a major strengthening of the US dollar.
GOLD LONG
medium-term
Speaker said, "If you were told you could short the S&P 500 3% from all-time highs when the strait has been closed for 45 days, you would take that blindfolded." He later reiterated, "The fundamentals and macro outlook to me don't justify us being 3% off highs." Critical fundamental risks (Strait of Hormuz closure, looming hot inflation prints, poor liquidity) are not reflected in index prices, creating a poor risk/reward. SHORT because the index is overvalued relative to the deteriorating macro and geopolitical backdrop, despite recent positioning-driven strength. A durable ceasefire, Fed policy pivot, or continued systematic buying (CTA flows) drives the market higher despite fundamentals.
SPY SHORT
short-term
Speaker is "long the December and March '27" oil futures, loving the trade entries. He argues the back month (~$70) offers better value than the congested front month. Front-month prices are in a demand-destruction zone (~$110-$120) with heavy speculation, while back-month prices are significantly lower, offering a favorable convergence trade if the situation persists. LONG back-month oil futures (e.g., Dec '26) for a potential 20-25% gain on a convergence toward ~$90 later in the year. A swift resolution to Middle East tensions causes oil prices to collapse across the curve.
USO LONG
medium-term
Speaker stated, "Bitcoin's diverging from software now... Bitcoin's actually sniffing out maybe some global liquidity relief." He tied this to Trump needing to "pull some rabbits out of his hat" for the midterms. The anticipation of stimulative policy actions from the Trump administration to improve economic/political prospects could boost global liquidity, which Bitcoin is perceived to benefit from. LONG Bitcoin as a tactical bet on forthcoming policy responses that increase liquidity and risk appetite. No policy materializes, liquidity conditions tighten, or Bitcoin fails to act as a liquidity proxy.
BTC LONG
short-term
15:49
Apr 07
Apr 07
Forward Guidance
4mo
DBA 1ST
XLE 1ST
XLP 1ST
▾
The speaker stated his pre-war investment position was "long fertilizer" and identified it as a critical, lean supply chain vulnerable to the Hormuz disruption. Fertilizer production relies on feedstocks transiting the Strait. Disruption has already caused missed application windows globally, leading to lower crop yields and higher food prices 6-9 months out. Long fertilizer is a direct play on impending physical shortages and the resulting price inflation in agricultural inputs, exacerbated by the conflict. A rapid conflict resolution and release of global fertilizer reserves that alleviate near-term scarcity.
DBA LONG
medium-term
The speaker stated his pre-war investment position was "long energy" and that the Iran conflict is an "accelerant" to those existing trends. The war disrupts global energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz, damaging infrastructure and creating lasting uncertainty, which supports higher prices and rewards secure producers. Being long the energy sector is a hedge and a direct play on the accelerated fracturing of global energy supply chains and rising geopolitical risk premiums. A swift, durable resolution to the conflict that fully restores transit and repairs infrastructure faster than expected.
XLE LONG
medium-term to long-term
The speaker stated his pre-war investment position was "long food," linking it to the broader theme of securing essential supply chains. The war disrupts fertilizer and energy inputs critical for food production and distribution, creating physical shortages and inflationary pressure, particularly in vulnerable emerging markets. Being long food is a play on rising prices and scarcity in a essential, inelastic commodity sector, driven by cascading supply chain effects from the conflict. A bumper global harvest or successful diplomatic intervention that stabilizes fertilizer and energy inputs quickly.
XLP LONG
medium-term
17:26
Apr 06
Apr 06
Forward Guidance
4mo
NVDA
SILVER
BTC
XLK FLIP
SMH 1ST
▾
Speaker acknowledges Nvidia's business is "the key to this entire thing" and demand is "infinite," but notes its multiple is compressing and it is "not out of the line of disruption." Nvidia is the essential hardware provider for the AI boom (infinite demand), but as a hardware company, it faces valuation pressures and competitive risks. The market is not pricing in the CEO's trillion-dollar revenue vision. WATCH because while the fundamental demand case is extreme, the investment thesis must balance this against high expectations, valuation compression, and the long-term risks all hardware companies face. Competition erodes pricing power and market share faster than expected, or a hardware architectural shift makes its products less critical.
NVDA WATCH
Medium-term
Speaker says, "I'll take silver every day over gold for the rest of time because it is a necessity in every single piece of technology that you use." He notes silver is up 60% in 6 months. Silver is a critical industrial commodity in all electronics and technology hardware. The infinite demand for AI compute and related hardware (e.g., drones, data centers) directly increases demand for silver, making it a "rare earth" metal in terms of necessity. LONG because its fundamental demand driver from the AI/tech build-out is stronger and more direct than gold's. A major recession that crushes industrial demand globally, overriding the AI-driven demand growth.
SILVER WATCH
Long-term
Speaker states he is "100% a believer that Bitcoin is the endgame for growth assets" and argues that the breakdown of discounted cash flow models for software companies makes Bitcoin attractive. AI progress is so rapid and disruptive that it invalidates traditional equity valuation models based on predictable long-term cash flows. Bitcoin, which has no cash flows, becomes a viable growth asset alternative as investors seek new places to allocate capital. LONG because Bitcoin is positioned to capture wealth transfer as confidence in traditional growth equity models erodes. The speaker calls the last few months "the most important four months in the history of crypto" for this reason. A renewed period of stability and predictable growth in traditional software/tech companies that restores faith in discounted cash flow models.
BTC LONG
Long-term
Speaker says he "hate[s] the software companies" within the Mag 7, naming Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google. He argues AI agents will make human-centric decision-making (and thus many software business models, like ads) obsolete. Enterprise software companies face a negative labor arbitrage with AI (cheaper to replace seats with agents) and their future cash flows are highly uncertain due to disruption. Their models are built for human users, not AI agents. AVOID because these companies face existential business model disruption, challenges in adopting AI profitably, and potential government intervention/control, leading to "multiple compression." These companies successfully pivot their business models to be AI-native and monetize the agentic ecosystem effectively.
XLK AVOID
Medium to long-term
Speaker explicitly groups "semiconductors" with Bitcoin and silver as assets to take "over anything related to gold." He states the demand for compute is "infinite" due to the agentic AI era. The transition to agentic AI requires a thousand times more compute than the chatbot era. This creates a massive, sustained demand boom for the underlying hardware, with supply unable to keep up in the near term. LONG because the sector is a direct, fundamental beneficiary of the core AI infrastructure build-out, with demand structurally outstripping supply. A sudden, unforeseen slowdown in AI adoption or a breakthrough in compute efficiency that drastically reduces hardware demand.
SMH LONG
Medium to long-term
Speaker states, "Micron is the biggest position in my own personal portfolio. It's trading now at a 4 PE off next year's earnings..." Micron is a direct play on the memory (DRAM) bottleneck created by AI compute demand. The speaker has previously noted DRAM prices are up 400-500%, yet the market is valuing Micron as if this boom is temporary. LONG due to a combination of explosive fundamental demand for its products and a deeply discounted valuation that does not reflect the structural nature of the AI-driven demand shift. A catastrophic collapse in memory pricing due to a rapid increase in industry supply or a sharp drop in demand.
MU LONG
Medium-term
07:00
Apr 03
Apr 03
Forward Guidance
4mo
JETS
XLK 1ST
XLF 1ST
TLT
WTI
▾
Speaker highlights the ratio of Dow Transports to QQQ, noting it is at a historic low comparable to 2000, and states "this line should mean revert to the upside." Capital is rotating from tech into "real things" needed for the economy. Rising manufacturing PMIs and industrial metals support increased economic activity benefiting transports. The sector is set for potential mean reversion and outperformance versus tech, making it a key area to monitor for long opportunities. A deep economic slowdown that crushes industrial activity and freight demand.
JETS WATCH
Medium-term.
Speaker states he has been "pounding the table bearish mag seven" for months, playing it via long/short with metals/energy longs and tech shorts. Capital is rotating from high-multiple, non-profitable "bubble economy" tech into "real assets" (industrials, commodities). Market structure degrossing has occurred, but tech remains a source of funds. The sector is unattractive due to this macro rotation and multiple compression from higher bond yields. The speaker has trimmed but maintains an avoidant stance. A sharp downturn triggers a "flight to quality" into mega-cap tech names perceived as safe havens.
XLK AVOID
Medium-term.
Speaker explicitly states, "I don't really see a good case to be made for financials here." Higher inflation and restrictive policy hurt consumers via a negative wealth effect and higher living costs, leading to weaker demand and potential credit problems. This environment pressures financial sector profitability. The sector is unattractive due to the looming risks of credit deterioration and weaker economic activity. Aggressive Fed stimulus or yield curve control that relieves credit market pressure.
XLF AVOID
Medium-term.
Speaker declares "bonds are awful here awful awful awful" and discusses the bear-flattening dynamic. Inflation from oil and supply chain surcharges is persistent, forcing expectations of restrictive policy for longer. This pushes short-term yields up more than long-term (bear flattening), hurting total return. Bonds are an unattractive asset class as the market prices in sustained inflation and no near-term relief from the Fed. A severe credit event or recession that triggers a flight to safety and bull steepening.
TLT AVOID
Short-to-medium term.
Speaker explicitly loaded up on front-dated oil contracts based on the thesis the Iran-Israel war is not ending imminently. Oil is stuck in an "inflationary corridor" (~$100-$110) where prices fuel CPI increases but haven't yet crushed demand. Supply response is muted due to suppressed price signals and hedging. The setup favors being long, especially in the front of the curve, as geopolitical and structural factors support higher prices. A sudden geopolitical de-escalation or a policy-driven release of strategic reserves.
WTI LONG
Short-to-medium term.
07:00
Mar 27
Mar 27
Forward Guidance
4mo
SPY
XLE FLIP
DG 1ST
▾
Speaker stated, "I think it's a very bad year to be invested in the stock market as a whole... it's dicey for people who just own S&P 500, which is 40% mag 7 stocks." The Fed is handcuffed by elevated oil-driven inflation, forcing a ~6-month pause on supportive policy. This lack of liquidity provision caps risk asset multiples and prices. A broad, passive long exposure to the equity index is unattractive due to constrained monetary policy and a negative macroeconomic shock. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East that crumbles oil prices, allowing the Fed to intervene more preemptively with rate cuts.
SPY AVOID
Medium-term (next 6-12 months).
Speaker stated there will be "pockets energy, commodities, agriculture that I think do well" while the broad stock market is "dicey." The ongoing war is a direct supply shock to global energy markets, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz representing a severe scenario for crude and natural gas flows, sustaining higher prices. The energy sector is a direct beneficiary of the entrenched geopolitical crisis and associated supply constraints, positioning it as a relative outperformer. An immediate and peaceful resolution to the conflict that re-opens shipping channels and restores supply flows faster than expected.
XLE LONG
Short to medium-term (contingent on war duration).
Speaker stated, "you have also this huge flight to safety flow that I think on net is overpowering everything and and making the dollar stronger." Capital is fleeing regions perceived as less safe (Europe, Middle East) due to war and growth risks, seeking the safety of US assets. This flow outweighs the dollar-negative impact of other central banks hiking rates more aggressively. The US dollar is the primary beneficiary of safe-haven flows during the current geopolitical crisis, driving it higher. A sudden, credible peace deal that reduces global risk aversion and reverses capital flows out of the USD.
DG LONG
Short to medium-term (while crisis persists).
18:10
Mar 25
Mar 25
Forward Guidance
5mo
BTC
XLF
▾
Raoul Pal stated that crypto's total addressable market is wildly underestimated because AI agents will use crypto rails for microtransactions, calling it "the strongest narrative we will ever have." AI agents will require efficient, scalable payment and transaction systems, with crypto providing the necessary infrastructure, leading to massive adoption and value accrual. Bullish on crypto as an asset class due to exponential growth in use cases driven by AI agent adoption. AI agents might not adopt crypto as expected, or regulatory barriers could impede growth.
BTC WATCH
long-term
Raoul Pal explicitly said that banks will provide liquidity for AI investments, with regulatory changes like ESLR allowing the banking system to lever up and "go back to the banks." Similar to the late '90s Greenspan era, banks will drive lending and capital formation, supporting economic growth and asset prices as they take on a central role in funding AI-driven expansion. Positive for the finance sector as banks regain their role in providing leverage and liquidity, potentially boosting profitability. Economic downturn or policy reversals that constrain bank lending, or failure of AI investments to materialize.
XLF WATCH
medium-term to long-term
14:04
Mar 20
Mar 20
Forward Guidance
5mo
EWJ
SPY 1ST
VGK
DBA 1ST
UNG 1ST
▾
Felix states he is "short Japan, short South Korea, short Europe." These regions are most exposed to the Hormuz Strait energy shock (high import dependence) and have central banks with limited flexibility to support growth, creating an economic vulnerability. Their equities are more effective shorts than broad U.S. indices like the NASDAQ to express a view on the global energy crisis. A swift de-escalation and reopening of the Strait, coupled with massive, coordinated global central bank stimulus.
EWJ NEUTRAL
VGK NEUTRAL
EWY SHORT
medium-term
Quinn states that even in a "hunky dory" scenario where oil falls to $80, "the Fed's still not cutting. Liquidity picture is still bad. foreign investors still need to pull their funds from these assets." This combination creates a "pretty strong ceiling on the S&P 500." The best-case outcome is flat nominal returns in a ~5% inflationary environment, implying negative real returns. The index faces significant macro and liquidity headwinds with limited upside catalyst, making it an unattractive risk/reward proposition. The Fed aggressively cutting rates despite elevated inflation to directly support asset prices.
SPY AVOID
medium-term
Felix states his "big big trade is the agricultural stuff" and prefers the base commodities over fertilizer equities. Agricultural commodities encapsulate spiking input costs (fuel, fertilizer) while farm profit margins are at multi-year lows, limiting supply growth. Demand is highly inelastic compared to energy. Higher prices are the necessary "cure" to balance the market, creating an asymmetric long setup, especially during the critical spring planting season. A sudden collapse in energy prices that rapidly reduces production costs and improves farm economics.
DBA LONG
short-to-medium-term
Felix explicitly states he is "still really long the natural gas torqued equities in the US, long the coal equities." The destruction of major LNG export infrastructure (Qatar) is a multi-year, multi-billion dollar problem that structurally removes supply, making other global energy assets more valuable. These equities are positioned to benefit from persistent energy supply shocks and the resulting higher price environment. A rapid, peaceful resolution to Middle East conflicts that restores supply flows and market confidence.
UNG LONG
medium-term
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