AI Will Drive The Biggest Boom In History | Raoul Pal
Speakers
Summary
- AI is framed as the most powerful and last major human invention, with a two-country race between the US and China consuming global capital and aligning all other factors.
- Superintelligence has arrived, replacing humans as the apex intelligence, but human compute retains value due to qualia and messy, broad intelligence.
- Recessions are deemed impossible due to systemic reliance on liquidity management; governments and banks will debase currency to prevent collateral collapses.
- Crypto's total addressable market is set to explode as AI agents require microtransactions and tokenized data markets, making it core infrastructure.
- Banks are poised to provide liquidity for AI investments, with regulatory changes enabling them to lever up, similar to the Greenspan era.
- Software stock sell-offs are misattributed to AI disruption and are primarily liquidity-driven, mirroring Bitcoin's price action.
- Human value shifts to the attention economy and experiences (e.g., events, travel, sports) as AI handles productivity, making human interactions premium.
- Energy constraints for AI are solvable through massive solar expansion led by China, plus diverse sources like nuclear and gas.
- Geopolitical risks like oil shocks are managed via game theory favoring resolution over conflict to avoid economic slowdowns.
- Longevity and health optimization will benefit from AI, but the goal is enriching human experience, not merely extending life.
Trade Ideas
Raoul Pal explicitly said that banks will provide liquidity for AI investments, with regulatory changes like ESLR allowing the banking system to lever up and "go back to the banks." Similar to the late '90s Greenspan era, banks will drive lending and capital formation, supporting economic growth and asset prices as they take on a central role in funding AI-driven expansion. Positive for the finance sector as banks regain their role in providing leverage and liquidity, potentially boosting profitability. Economic downturn or policy reversals that constrain bank lending, or failure of AI investments to materialize.
Raoul Pal stated that crypto's total addressable market is wildly underestimated because AI agents will use crypto rails for microtransactions, calling it "the strongest narrative we will ever have." AI agents will require efficient, scalable payment and transaction systems, with crypto providing the necessary infrastructure, leading to massive adoption and value accrual. Bullish on crypto as an asset class due to exponential growth in use cases driven by AI agent adoption. AI agents might not adopt crypto as expected, or regulatory barriers could impede growth.
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This Forward Guidance video, published March 25, 2026, features Raoul Pal discussing XLF, BTC. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.