Buzzberg Cup Live

The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 03, 2026 at 07:00  |  46:45  |  Forward Guidance
Speakers
Quinn Thompson — Co-Host, Forward Guidance / Founder, Lekker Capital
Felix Jauvin — Co-Host, Forward Guidance

Summary

Felix Jauvin and Quinn Thompson discuss the unwind of the AI momentum trade, triggered by positioning extremes, yen intervention, and headlines around excess AI compute and memory efficiency. They analyze a mixed jobs report and argue that the Fed is mispricing hawkishness given weakening labor and rolling inflation. They detail specific trades: shorting tech/AI, buying gold and SOFR, a tactical long in Bitcoin/MicroStrategy, and a broader shift toward debasement assets.

  • An extreme factor implosion hits the AI/semiconductor momentum trade, driven by crowded positioning and negative catalysts.
  • Yen intervention and the unwind of reflexive carry-trade flows amplify the rotation.
  • The speakers believe the Fed is wrongly hawkish; labor market weakness and falling leading indicators argue against hikes.
  • Gold and SOFR are favored to express a fade of hawkish policy expectations.
  • A tactical bounce in Bitcoin and MicroStrategy is expected after peak bearish sentiment and a pause in Strategy buying.
  • A longer-term portfolio shift from AI bottleneck trades toward debasement assets like gold and Bitcoin is recommended.
  • The semiconductor/AI memory trade is placed on watch for a future dip-buying opportunity, but near-term caution is warranted.
Ideas
Quinn Thompson Co-Host, Forward Guidance / Founder, Lekker Capital 4:29
Avoid AI and semiconductor trades now.
The AI/semiconductor momentum trade is showing major cracks with a four-sigma factor implosion. Positioning was extremely leveraged, and catalysts like Meta selling excess compute and a memory efficiency breakthrough are triggering an unwind. With peak growth and inflation, the setup is dicey. Recommend extreme caution and a negative bias on tech.
QQQ SMH HIGH
Felix Jauvin Co-Host, Forward Guidance 14:17
Long SOFR to fade hawkish expectations.
The market is still pricing a small chance of hikes, but labor market weakness and rolling inflation argue against it. Fading this hawkishness via the SOFR complex is a good trade.
SOFR futures MED
Quinn Thompson Co-Host, Forward Guidance / Founder, Lekker Capital 28:07
Sell Mag Seven bounces on AI unwind.
The Magnificent Seven are in a 'hurt locker' because an AI unwind reflexively hits their income from marking up AI lab valuations on their balance sheets. He plans to sell bounces in these names.
MAGS HIGH
Quinn Thompson Co-Host, Forward Guidance / Founder, Lekker Capital 32:59
Tactical long Bitcoin on bearish exhaustion.
Bearish sentiment on Bitcoin and especially MicroStrategy reached an extreme. With Strategy appearing to pause its buying, the removal of that selling pressure acts like taking a hand off a beach ball underwater, creating room for a tactical bounce even though the asset is not out of the woods.
MSTR BTC MED
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This Forward Guidance video, published July 03, 2026, features Quinn Thompson, Felix Jauvin discussing QQQ, SMH, SOFR futures, MAGS, MSTR, BTC. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Quinn Thompson, Felix Jauvin  · Tickers: QQQ, SMH, SOFR futures, MAGS, MSTR, BTC