Tom Dunleavy

Speaker said, "If you were told you could short the S&P 500 3% from all-time highs when the strait has been closed for 45 days, you would take that blindfolded." He later reiterated, "The fundamentals and macro outlook to me don't justify us being 3% off highs." Critical fundamental risks (Strait of Hormuz closure, looming hot inflation prints, poor liquidity) are not reflected in index prices, creating a poor risk/reward. SHORT because the index is overvalued relative to the deteriorating macro and geopolitical backdrop, despite recent positioning-driven strength. A durable ceasefire, Fed policy pivot, or continued systematic buying (CTA flows) drives the market higher despite fundamentals.

Speaker is "long the December and March '27" oil futures, loving the trade entries. He argues the back month (~$70) offers better value than the congested front month. Front-month prices are in a demand-destruction zone (~$110-$120) with heavy speculation, while back-month prices are significantly lower, offering a favorable convergence trade if the situation persists. LONG back-month oil futures (e.g., Dec '26) for a potential 20-25% gain on a convergence toward ~$90 later in the year. A swift resolution to Middle East tensions causes oil prices to collapse across the curve.