The Iran War is Accelerating the End of Globalism | Jacob Shapiro

Summary

• The Iran war is acting as a powerful accelerant to pre-existing trends of deglobalization and supply chain multipolarity, not a new disruption.
• The single most important short-term indicator is the volume of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which remains at ~20% of normal levels despite a recent minor uptick.
• Physical shortages are already appearing in East Asian economies for affected commodities; if the conflict persists another month, shortages will spread to Europe and the Western Hemisphere.
• Key vulnerable supply chains include LNG (critical for Europe's post-Russia energy balance), fertilizers (with planting windows already missed, leading to future food price inflation), and mid-to-lower tier petrochemicals (lacking strategic reserves).
• The conflict's disruption could persist even after a ceasefire due to infrastructure damage (e.g., Qatari LNG facilities) and potential spillover, such as Ukraine targeting Russian export infrastructure to gain leverage.
• The "best case" outcome is a new, Iran-dominated tolling system for the Strait, signaling the end of U.S.-guaranteed maritime security and a major shift in global order.
• On a 3-5 year horizon, relative winners will be countries with cheap/secure energy & food, technological edges, and distance from conflict zones (e.g., U.S., China, Chile). Relative losers are import-dependent emerging markets.
• The market is currently sanguine and disconnected from physical economy realities, similar to lags seen before the 2008 crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war.
• China is perceived as a quiet winner: it has prepared via renewables build-out, has Russia as an energy partner, and sees U.S. allies like the Philippines pivoting pragmatically towards Beijing due to energy insecurity.
• The speaker remains structurally optimistic about the long-term global economy, drawing an analogy to the transformative 1890s (energy transition, tech innovation) rather than the 1930s.