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13:00
Aug 22
Aug 22
TLT
TIP 1ST
Money market funds
NLY
FXY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid long-dated Treasuries, yields too low
Chris Whalen says he would not buy a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond at these rates because Treasury yields are well below the rate of inflation, and even TIPS do not offer much value; he says there are better alternatives to protect cash and earn a decent yield, such as mortgage REITs or money market funds.
TLT AVOID
TIP AVOID
Prefer money market funds over Treasuries
Whalen recommends money market funds as a relatively safe place to park cash and earn a decent yield before buying Treasury bonds or bills, because Treasury securities offer little value below inflation.
Money market funds LONG
Prefer Annaly and AGNC mortgage REITs
Whalen says he owns Annaly and AGNC and points to them as examples of mortgage-rate-sensitive instruments that offer much better yield than long-term Treasuries, which are below inflation.
NLY LONG
AGNC LONG
Yen to keep weakening
Whalen personally expects the yen to continue weakening because the US-Japan interest rate differential is extremely important, Japan has very low rates and little economic growth, and the yen carry trade is gradually unraveling; he says Washington cannot really prevent this process, only manage it.
FXY SHORT
Lower short-term rates via reserve shrinkage
Whalen argues that if the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and reserves decline, banks and money market funds will have to buy more T-bills, pushing short-term yields down rather than up; the Treasury may add to this by lending its cash back to the market via repurchase agreements, its own short-end version of QE, putting further downward pressure on short-term rates.
US Treasury Bills LONG
Weak yen benefits Japanese economy
Whalen says a weaker yen is probably good for the Japanese economy because Japan will be able to invest again in industries it was forced out of when its currency was strong.
EWJ LONG
Gulf damage keeps diesel markets tight
Whalen says war-related damage to Gulf productive infrastructure and the inability to transport products in and out of the Gulf means the world must rely on existing capacity for products like diesel fuel; he notes the US is exporting diesel at a brisk pace and other global markets are very tight.
UCO LONG
HIGH
14:00
Aug 18
Aug 18
GLD
FXI
SPY
SQQQ 1ST
TLT
▾
HIGH
Avoid gold now; it bubbled.
After the crash, Dent wants to buy gold for a long-term commodity allocation because it will be beaten down and because India's rise will support gold demand: Indians spend about three times as much of their income on gold as the Chinese, and gold is a good portfolio diversifier.
GLD AVOID
Avoid China; structurally finished.
China is structurally finished as a growth story because of massive real-estate overbuilding: everyday Chinese often own second or third speculative homes, and China has already built enough property for full urbanization. Dent says he would not buy China for a comeback.
FXI AVOID
Sell stocks; crash to 2009 lows.
Dent argues that post-2008 stimulus created the biggest stock bubble in history. Stocks must revert to the last major low of March 2009, implying about a 90% crash in the S&P 500 and a 96% crash in the Nasdaq, with a possible first-wave decline of 54% for the S&P 500 and 64% for the Nasdaq by year-end. He says investors should sell stocks or avoid equities.
SPY SHORT
QQQ SHORT
Buy SQQQ to short Nasdaq crash.
For aggressive investors, Dent recommends buying SQQQ, the triple-short Nasdaq 100 ETF, with only a portion of risk capital to capture the first decisive wave down. If the first crash happens by year-end and the S&P is down roughly 50%, take profits and exit.
SQQQ LONG
Buy long-dated Treasuries as safe haven.
Long-dated US Treasuries are the only true safe haven in a serious downturn. TLT, an ETF holding 10- and 30-year Treasuries, gained about 40% in 2008 while stocks and gold fell, and Dent projects TLT could double in two to three years if the crash unfolds. Buy TLT or direct 30-year Treasuries.
TLT LONG
Buy India and Southeast Asia.
Dent views India as the next China and Southeast Asia as the only other major future growth engine. India's population will keep growing from 1.4 billion to 1.7 billion while China shrinks, and India can learn from China's mistakes. After the washout, buy India, Southeast Asia, and emerging market stocks or funds.
INDA LONG
EEM LONG
HIGH
13:00
Aug 15
Aug 15
BIZD
APO
BEP 1ST
OWL
UWMC
▾
HIGH
Private credit faces slow messy unwind.
The 777 Partners collapse is a preview of how private credit ultimately unwinds: slowly, messily, and with fraud along the way. The sector is opaque, spans hundreds of affiliates, and will take years to work through, so the private-credit complex is vulnerable to more messy failures.
BIZD AVOID
Avoid insurers controlled by private credit.
Firms like Apollo, Brookfield, and Blue Owl bought insurance companies to use as balance sheets for private credit strategies, with annuities and life insurance on the other side. That structure creates solvency and contagion risk for policyholders if the insurance assets are questioned.
APO AVOID
BEP AVOID
OWL AVOID
United Wholesale Mortgage remains fundamentally overvalued.
United Wholesale Mortgage's real problem was not the Two Harbors hedge; Mat Ishbia extracted cash for years, the company was never truly profitable, and servicing assets were overvalued by about 20-25%. Oaktree's $1.5 billion rescue should constrain cash extraction and likely force pricing changes that reduce market share, so UWM remains problematic.
UWMC AVOID
AI valuations vulnerable to Chinese competition.
AI valuations are built on dubious profitability assumptions, and Chinese competitors can now offer the same or better functionality at a tenth of the cost. Chris sees potential for a valuation retracement in AI names even though hyperscaler spending may continue.
Artificial intelligence stocks AVOID
Diesel, heating oil, gasoline head higher.
Energy and chemical suppliers have hit bottom in available US supply, and the Iran conflict destroyed roughly half of productive capacity for key industrial chemicals, LNG, and diesel. Diesel is already up about 35% since February, and Chris expects heating oil, gasoline, and other industrial inputs to move higher into the fall.
UHN LONG
UGA LONG
CRAK LONG
Gold bull market remains intact.
Gold sold off in Q1, bottomed, and is heading north again. Chinese buyers are purchasing more gold than ever and taking delivery of physical metal, which removes supply from the market and keeps the gold bull market trade intact.
GLD LONG
Silver bulls remain intact on shortage.
Silver is even stronger as a commercial trade, and the top performers in his precious metals group are silver stocks and ETFs. Both gold and silver are in terrible short supply relative to demand, which supports the ongoing silver bull market.
SLV LONG
SILVER LONG
HIGH
14:00
Aug 13
Aug 13
Jim Rickards: The Iran Bet Trump Is Losing, Case for $10K Gold, & The Trade That Could Break Markets
VT
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note
UUP 1ST
FXY 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Carry unwind could crash global markets.
A large share of global finance has been funded by borrowing yen near zero and swapping into dollars to invest. As Japanese rates rise toward 3%, leveraged investors must unwind by selling assets. Rickards warns this could be the verge of a global market collapse across stocks, bonds, and commodities; authorities may delay it past the election, but 2027 is likely messy.
VT WATCH
Japan selling Treasuries; U.S. yields rise.
Japan is the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries and needs dollars for energy imports. As the yen rescue/carry unwind proceeds, Japan sells U.S. Treasuries, pushing U.S. interest rates higher. The current Treasury/Fed bailout of Japan is temporary; Rickards expects the intervention to fail and U.S. rates to go higher.
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note SHORT
Debasement trade wrong; dollar not collapsing.
Rickards rejects the popular 'debasement trade' narrative that the dollar and Treasury market are about to collapse and be replaced by the yuan, a BRICS currency, or crypto. Central banks hold securities rather than currencies, and the U.S. Treasury market is the only real reserve asset at scale. Therefore, getting out of dollars is not warranted.
UUP LONG
Yen rescue fails; yen goes much lower.
The U.S. Treasury and Fed are providing dollar/euro loans to Japan to prop up the yen and prevent Treasury sales before the election. Rickards says currency interventions like this never work in the long run; he expects the effort to fail and the yen to go much lower.
FXY SHORT
Gold bottomed; heading toward $10,000.
Using Jim Rogers' rule that no commodity reaches a peak without a 50% drawdown, plus fractal scale invariance, Rickards called gold's correction bottom near $3,600 from the $5,400 January peak; the actual low was around $3,900. He believes the bottom is in and maintains his $10,000 gold target, expecting a much higher move.
GLD LONG
Strait closure keeps oil prices high.
The US-Iran standoff is a game of chicken that Iran is winning. Iran can keep the Strait of Hormuz closed by blowing up a vessel every four or five days, which keeps shipping, insurance, and cargo owners away and leaves oil/gasoline prices elevated. The Iran-Oman deal is conditioned on US concessions that will not happen, so the Strait remains effectively closed.
WTI LONG
HIGH
14:00
Aug 11
Aug 11
SPY 1ST
US 10-year Treasury bonds
DBC
Cryptocurrencies
FXI
▾
HIGH
Range-bound US equities, risk downside
Global liquidity cycle peaked, financial liquidity is being sucked into the booming real economy, compressing P/E multiples even as earnings hold up, resulting in a range-bound market with risk of downside. Index gains mask widespread underperformance.
SPY AVOID
Avoid US bonds, yields will rise
Strong nominal GDP growth of 7-8% is incompatible with current 4.7% 10-year yields, pushing bond yields higher. Treasury funding at the short end is private-sector QE that caps yields temporarily but eventually fails, as seen in Japan's move from 50bps to nearly 3%.
US 10-year Treasury bonds AVOID
Commodities rising on strong economy
Commodity markets are rising because strong real economy demand pulls liquidity out of financial assets, fueling commodities. They will dip early before the economic peak, so currently they are in a strong up-phase.
DBC LONG
Crypto under pressure from tight liquidity
Cryptocurrencies are highly liquidity-sensitive. As global liquidity momentum slows, they will remain under pressure.
Cryptocurrencies AVOID
Chinese equities offer alpha, anti-cyclical
China's cycle is anti-cyclical to the West. While Western liquidity tightens, the PBOC is injecting liquidity, creating a separate alpha opportunity in Chinese markets.
FXI WATCH
Buy gold and silver on weakness
Gold's rally is driven by the PBOC injecting liquidity to devalue the yuan internally while maintaining the external peg. Chinese retail, locked out of crypto, floods into gold via the Shanghai Gold Exchange, now the marginal price setter. Future Western monetization of debt adds to the case. Buy gold and silver on weakness as monetary inflation hedges.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
HIGH
13:00
Aug 08
Aug 08
GLD
SILVER
TLT
SHY 1ST
RKT
▾
HIGH
Gold and silver rally on US fiscal fears.
Gold and silver rebounded strongly this week as investors reacted to US fiscal credibility erosion, the Bank of Japan’s repo with the Fed (signaling a defensive US position), and foreign central banks selling Treasuries to accumulate gold and other currencies. Elevated concern about US debt default risk makes gold an increasingly important portfolio hedge, as measured by euro-denominated US CDS.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Short-end yields down, long-end yields up.
Financial repression is returning: the Treasury will engage in its own quantitative easing to push down short-term rates, while the long end of the yield curve reacts to inflation and deficit concerns, driving long-term yields upward. This reflects the Treasury being the dog and the Fed the tail, with debt approaching $40 trillion.
TLT SHORT
SHY LONG
Rocket’s integrated platform delivers strong earnings.
Rocket hit it out of the park this quarter, reaping benefits from integrating Rocket Mortgage, Redfin Real Estate, and Mr. Cooper as servicer. Mr. Cooper is the largest servicer in the country, consistently accreting book value and adding to equity value, and they hit really good volume numbers despite tough industry conditions.
RKT LONG
Home prices to fall 10–20% by 2028.
Investment banks will hold the housing market together until they book IPO fees, then step back, setting up a significant market correction next year. Eventually a general downturn in the economy will lead to a housing market correction, with home prices likely declining 10–20% on average by 2028, giving back pandemic-era inflation.
ITB WATCH
Incompetent hedging forces Oaktree rescue, subordinating shareholders.
United Wholesale Mortgage demonstrated a complete lack of competence when it hedged the balance sheet of an acquisition target it did not own and never won, producing a $600 million loss. The company was forced into a rescue by Oaktree on onerous terms, giving Oaktree control and senior preferred equity plus warrants, leaving common shareholders subordinated. CEO Matt Ishbia should be removed, and the company is likely to be sold.
UWMC AVOID
LoanDepot’s debt buyback signals recovery potential.
LoanDepot showed signs of life this quarter, buying back its debt and undertaking other actions that appear positive.
LDI LONG
HIGH
15:00
Aug 06
Aug 06
GLD
Thailand equities
Korea equity market
IEF 1ST
SPY
▾
HIGH
Gold will surge amid inevitable money printing.
Central bank money printing has inflated asset prices and will inevitably force more money printing, debasing fiat currencies. In this environment, precious metals such as gold will preserve value and should already be much higher; Faber personally owns them and believes gold could reach $100,000 in a hyperinflation scenario.
GLD LONG
Thai stocks undervalued with food security.
Thailand, often considered a failed state, has stocks that became inexpensive and have already risen 21% this year but still offer value on a five-year view. The country is food self-sufficient, culturally safe, and presents a contrarian investment opportunity. Faber holds a large position in Thai stocks.
Thailand equities LONG
Korea's equity bubble is imploding.
The biggest global bubble is in Korea, fueled by speculative frenzy in Samsung and Hynix that drew both local and international money via emerging-market indices. The bubble is bursting and many investors have already lost everything. This market remains highly dangerous.
Korea equity market AVOID
Bonds will lose less than stocks.
In the current fragile environment, US stocks (S&P 500) will lose more money than bonds. Faber advocates holding bonds as part of a diversified portfolio designed to lose the least, as stocks are more vulnerable to the inevitable bursting of the mania.
IEF LONG
SPY AVOID
HIGH
14:00
Aug 04
Aug 04
Oracle CDS
SILVER 1ST
long-term U.S. Treasuries
URA 1ST
COPPER 1ST
▾
HIGH
Watch Oracle CDS for AI stress.
The true tell for AI is in the credit market, not equities. Oracle credit default swaps have quadrupled, signaling stress. AI-related debt is large, with 25% of investment grade bonds in AI and 75% of US growth from AI. AI capex is high but returns may take years. Watching credit spreads, especially Oracle CDS, is crucial to gauge systemic risk.
Oracle CDS WATCH
Silver catches up, ratio to 30.
Silver historically catches up to gold during transition periods. The gold-to-silver ratio is currently high and typically compresses to as low as 30 in such phases. Silver is still very positionable as a follower trade.
SILVER LONG
Avoid long-term bonds in transition.
In the current transition period, investors should not hold long-term bonds. The environment is not suited for mean reversion or 60/40 portfolios. Protection of capital is paramount, and long bonds are vulnerable to inflation, credit stress, and policy missteps.
long-term U.S. Treasuries AVOID
Long physical AI infrastructure, revaluation ahead.
AI infrastructure, including energy, uranium, nuclear refining, copper, grid, and transmission, is backed by governments and part of the physical buildout. This sector was pulled down with the general market but has a distinct revaluation case as the physical world gets revalued upward versus the digital world. Governments are buying critical minerals and infrastructure for energy security and AI competitiveness.
URA LONG
COPPER LONG
PAVE LONG
Hold cash for volatility and opportunity.
Cash is king in transition periods with high volatility. Keeping cash provides dry powder for distressed opportunities and protects against deflationary shocks that may follow an inflationary crisis. Investors holding cash will do extremely well in such an environment.
Cash (USD) LONG
Gold cheapest insurance, systemic risk rising.
Gold is the lowest entropy asset and money's ground stake. Central banks are buying gold as reinsurance against rising systemic risk. In a period of trust breakdown, people revert to gold. Gold to M2 ratio is near historic lows. Scenario analysis suggests gold price of $8,000-$25,000 by end of crisis, base case $10,000-$15,000. Gold is the cheapest insurance available.
GLD LONG
HIGH
13:00
Aug 01
Aug 01
OZK 1ST
10-year US Treasuries
GLD
SCHW 1ST
FLG
▾
HIGH
Unique construction lending model, discount.
Bank OZK has a unique construction and development lending model: it funds projects at the beginning of the life cycle and exits within a couple of years, passing the baton to permanent lenders. The bank keeps all its own cooking, does not participate out loans, and has very efficient operations with an efficiency ratio in the 30s–40s. It trades at a slight discount.
OZK LONG
Yields rising, Fed should hike rates.
The bond market is driving yields higher independently of the Fed, with the 10-year near 4.7%, and the Treasury nearing 5% on 10-year notes. High deficits and an overheated economy keep pressure on the long end. The Fed should take back last year's cuts with two quarter-point hikes to confirm the market's message, otherwise credibility is at risk.
10-year US Treasuries SHORT
Gold is real money, hold as hedge.
Gold is treated as real money in Asia, India, Turkey, and the Middle East, where people take physical delivery and hold it as family wealth. In the West, gold trades mainly on paper price and market sentiment. Central banks continue to buy, and gold now qualifies as a capital asset that can be pledged for financing. Whalen keeps about 20% of his portfolio in physical precious metals and junior miners, view it as a hedge with limited downside.
GLD LONG
Low-risk growth, solid franchise.
Schwab is a low-risk growth story with a solid franchise. The only concern is the sharp increase in margin lending, but this is an industry-wide phenomenon. Whalen remains long the stock.
SCHW LONG
Turnaround team will save the bank.
Flagstar was bought well below $10 per share. Whalen has total confidence in the Flagstar team, especially CFO Lee Smith, to save the bank after the New York Community Bank mess. The team is capable of turning the institution around.
FLG LONG
Disastrous earnings, avoid the stock.
PennyMac just reported disastrous earnings, the numbers were too low, and the stock got hammered. PennyMac reports first among the mortgage group, so its stumble hurts sentiment across the sector and forces credit spreads wider. Whalen hates the quarter's statement and views the stock as unattractive.
PFSI AVOID
Strong residential mortgage REIT, attractive yield.
Annaly just reported great earnings and is a highly focused residential mortgage REIT that trades at a premium to book because so many investors want its yield. The company is a big lender and issuer of securities, and its business model is a 'thing of beauty' that deserves study. Whalen holds it in a cash account to prevent stock lending.
NLY LONG
Discount to book, smart management.
Rhythm Capital, run by a very smart former Bear Stearns banker, is a mortgage REIT that also diversifies into commercial real estate and other assets. It trades at a discount to book value (around 0.7x book) while offering a yield, presenting a value opportunity relative to peers like Annaly.
RITM LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jul 30
Jul 30
GLD
CCC High Yield Bonds
▾
HIGH
Own gold as credit markets break.
High interest rates will continue breaking things in credit, evident in widening CCC high-yield spreads and 15-year bankruptcy highs. Historically, when credit breaks, gold benefits. Investors need to own gold as a hedge against credit market cracks.
GLD LONG
Avoid CCC high-yield bonds as credit cracks.
CCC high-yield bond spreads are gapping out, bankruptcies are at a 15-year high, and bond yields remain at untenably high levels for refinancing. This signals a breaking credit market, making high-yield bonds unattractive and risky.
CCC High Yield Bonds AVOID
HIGH
13:00
Jul 25
Jul 25
PMT FLIP
PFSI
STABLECOINS
GLD
SILVER
▾
HIGH
Avoid PennyMac
PennyMac Mortgage Trust (PMT) and PennyMac Financial (PFSI) have recently struggled to get it right, so he is not keen on them. For mortgage-related yield plays, better options exist.
PMT AVOID
PFSI AVOID
Avoid stablecoins
Stablecoins are essentially prepaid gift cards with little real use case beyond offshore transfers, which are becoming obsolete due to FedNow and services like PayPal. The Clarity Act (less than 50% chance of passing) would strip yield from coins, impose AML/KYC requirements, force issuers offshore or to become banks, and kill the hype. Investors seeking yield should look at registered securities and banks instead.
STABLECOINS AVOID
Gold to rise
Gold is a monetary trade benefiting from central bank buying on dips, physical delivery constraints, and potential institutional reallocation if gold yields become available. He is adding to gold positions on the pullback and remains bullish, seeing today's environment akin to the 1920s.
GLD LONG
Silver to soar
Silver has different drivers than gold: commercial/tech demand, Chinese physical buying for delivery, and a severe supply-demand imbalance with no substitutes. He is much more focused on silver, which he expects to explode higher depending on commercial demand.
SILVER LONG
Avoid MicroStrategy
MicroStrategy has a flawed business model and a dangerously mismatched balance sheet (Bitcoin assets vs. fiat liabilities). Paying 11% on preferred shares is a red flag, and the company may not survive a year. Investors can find better, safer yields elsewhere.
MSTR AVOID
MicroStrategy Preferred Shares AVOID
Buy Citigroup TRUPS
Citigroup trust preferred securities (TRUPS) pay an attractive yield, trade around $27–28, and he owns them for income without worrying about price volatility. They are a solid alternative to riskier income plays.
C-PN LONG
Own Annaly, AGNC for income
Annaly (NLY) and AGNC offer attractive, safe yields for income investors. He owns them for cash instead of T-bills, indifferent to price fluctuations. The key risk is spreads, not absolute interest rates, and Annaly's portfolio is well-balanced with mortgage servicing rights, trading around book value.
NLY LONG
AGNC LONG
Short 10-year Treasuries
The 10-year Treasury yield is closing in on 5% and could break above it, driven by large fiscal deficits and persistent inflation, ending the decades-long trend of falling rates. This means bond prices will fall.
IEF SHORT
Buy Bunker Hill Mine
Bunker Hill Mine is a precious-metals stock they added, expecting production later this year of zinc, copper, and silver, with a goal to be 50/50 silver and other metals. The company operates in a stable US jurisdiction and was the largest Superfund site now getting back to production, showing the focus on domestic supply.
BHLL LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jul 23
Jul 23
GLD 1ST
GDX 1ST
PSIL 1ST
KRE 1ST
RSP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold to $7,500 after Fed prints.
Gold is a long-term bull due to monetary debasement, relentless Fed printing, and a weakening dollar. After a sharp deleveraging event that initially sells off gold, the Fed will intervene with massive stimulus, sending gold to $7,500 or higher within 12-18 months.
GLD LONG
Gold miners undervalued, ready to surge.
Gold miners have pulled back sharply while gold remains elevated. The GDX has fallen from ~120 to ~75, P/E multiples contracted significantly, and miners still extract gold at low cost. This divergence creates an attractive entry for a sector that will surge when gold rallies again.
GDX LONG
SIL LONG
Psychedelic stocks poised for asymmetric gains.
The psychedelic drug sector is an asymmetric upside opportunity. It is underfollowed, clinical trial data is positive, regulatory tailwinds are emerging (RFK Jr., FDA fast-tracking), and big pharma validation arrived with Eli Lilly's acquisition of Atai. Stocks like Compass Pathways, Definium/MindMed, and the PSI ETF stand to benefit significantly.
PSIL LONG
CMPS LONG
MNMD LONG
Avoid regional banks, CRE exposure risk.
Regional banks are heavily exposed to commercial real estate bubbles, unmarked books, subprime auto, and a struggling consumer. These risks make the sector fragile and unattractive as rates stay elevated.
KRE AVOID
Equal-weight S&P will outperform cap-weighted.
The market-cap-weighted S&P 500 is dangerously concentrated in overvalued mega-cap names. An equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF (RSP) reduces that concentration risk and should outperform as market breadth improves or when the market corrects.
RSP LONG
Emerging markets will outperform US stocks.
The valuation gap between the US market and the rest of the world is extreme. The US P/E multiple must contract while the rest-of-world multiple expands, driving outperformance of emerging markets (EEM) over US equities.
EEM LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jul 21
Jul 21
GLD
SILVER
CRGY 1ST
FXY
MSFT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold and miners surge against fiat currencies.
Gold is real money; all fiat currencies are devaluing against real assets due to fiscal dominance, sticky inflation, and surging deficits. The TLT priced in gold shows a clear downtrend, indicating gold's outperformance. After a correction that rinsed out speculators, gold is finding its footing and the metal along with gold miners is set for significant gains.
GLD LONG
Silver benefits from reflation and debasement.
Silver, alongside gold, is part of the reflation and hard-asset trade. Coeur Mining (CDE) is a silver-focused stock that provides alpha, and silver benefits from the same monetary debasement and fiscal profligacy driving gold higher.
SILVER LONG
SLV LONG
Energy stocks VAL, CRGY, SLB surge.
Energy sector profits and free cash flow are surging, with energy representing 3.5% of the S&P but 13% of free cash flow, heading to 20%. Specific oil service and E&P names are cheap: Valaris (VAL) was written up as an oil service play, CRGY (Crescent Energy) recently written up, and Schlumberger (SLB) will do well. They stand to benefit from the reflation trade and capex boom.
CRGY LONG
VAL LONG
SLB LONG
Yen carry trade may unwind sharply.
Japan, the world's largest creditor, has seen JGB yields surge to 30-year highs while the yen has been persistently weak. The Bank of Japan may be forced to raise rates to defend the currency, which would trigger a massive unwinding of the yen carry trade. This liquidity withdrawal could have a huge negative impact on US equity prices. We are approaching the 'last innings' of the weak yen.
FXY WATCH
Short Microsoft, AI cash burn.
Microsoft and the hyperscalers are 'literally setting their money on fire' with AI data center spending, causing free cash flow to decline. The AI trade is a bubble where profit margins are unsustainable. A pair trade of long energy and short Microsoft is explicitly highlighted as a money-making proposition.
MSFT SHORT
Gold miners SSRM, CDE deeply undervalued.
Gold miners are a levered play on the rising gold price and are incredibly cheap. Specific picks: SSRM trades at 7x earnings with 25% of market cap in cash; Coeur Mining (CDE) adds silver/gold alpha. These mining stocks could double or triple as gold resumes its uptrend.
CDE LONG
SSRM LONG
Own copper for capex-driven reflation.
Copper is a core reflation asset. The combination of a worldwide capex boom, supply chain re-shoring, and underinvestment in new capacity creates a bullish supply-demand backdrop. It should be owned as part of the rotation into real assets.
COPPER LONG
CPER LONG
Bond yields heading much higher.
US bond yields at 4.5% are 'much too low' given unsustainable fiscal deficits (running $2+ trillion), sticky inflation, surging capex demand for funds, and the lack of policy safety nets. Fair value is likely 5.5-6%. Bonds are 'certificates of confiscation' guaranteed to lose money in real terms, and the 40% fixed-income allocation in a 60/40 portfolio is a 'no-fly zone'.
TLT SHORT
Uranium looks interesting for reflation.
Uranium is interesting as part of the reflation/commodity trade, though no detailed thesis was provided beyond it being a real asset play in the current environment.
URA LONG
Equal-weight S&P outperforms cap-weighted index.
The tech-heavy S&P 500 (50% tech) is vulnerable to a rotation into reflation and value. The equal-weighted S&P is already outperforming as breadth improves and sectors like energy, healthcare, and financials do better. Switching equity allocation from cap-weighted to equal-weight reduces tech exposure and captures the rotation.
RSP LONG
Semis are a huge short.
Semiconductor stocks are a 'huge short' and a 'joke'. They trade at 10x book, 10x sales, and are a highly cyclical industry. The AI bubble is far worse than dot-com, with malinvestment 17 times larger. Hyperscalers are destroying free cash flow on AI capex, making profit margins unsustainable. Once capital dries up, the cycle repeats with 90% drawdowns like Lucent, Nortel, and Cisco in 2000.
SMH SHORT
SOXX SHORT
HIGH
13:00
Jul 18
Jul 18
KBE
GLD
NLY
CRAK
SILVER
▾
HIGH
Banks face $4T private credit risk.
U.S. banks have approximately $4 trillion of exposure to non-depository financial institutions, consisting of $1.5 trillion in loans and $3 trillion in undrawn commitments. These loans are often non-recourse and extended to private credit portfolios, creating zombie portfolios where banks are forced to extend and pretend. There are no regulators actively watching these risks under the current administration, and banks will eventually face write-offs and losses. Investors should avoid U.S. banks.
KBE AVOID
Gold dip is a buying opportunity.
Gold has sold off but the decline is a buying opportunity. He is adding to his gold position because Asian investors and central banks view gold as a store of value and a commercial necessity, unlike speculative Western views. Lower prices allow accumulation for the long term.
GLD LONG
Rising rates benefit Annaly's spread.
Annaly (NLY) benefits from rising longer-term interest rates because it can buy higher-yielding securities, widening the spread between its cost of funds and asset yields. The company raises much of its capital in equity markets and uses repurchase agreements to leverage government-insured securities, paying a high dividend yield in the teens. He holds NLY as his biggest position.
NLY LONG
Diesel shortage will spike prices.
Diesel fuel supplies are tight and prices are up 30% since January, and they will not fall back. Refined product shortages are coming, potentially leading to rationing by the November elections. Diesel is the critical fuel for transportation, agriculture, and the economy, and this will drive double-digit inflation. Being long diesel is a bet on these dynamics.
CRAK LONG
Silver has strong commercial demand.
Silver is being added to particularly because of its commercial demand, which differentiates it from gold. Industrial usage supports silver, and the selloff allows him to increase his position at a lower cost.
SILVER LONG
HGNC owns government-insured securities.
He also owns HGNC, a REIT that buys government-insured securities, benefiting from similar spread-based income dynamics. Although no detailed thesis is provided, his ownership implies a positive view.
AGNC LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jul 16
Jul 16
SPY
SMH 1ST
KRP 1ST
NESR
AEM 1ST
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 at extreme overvaluation, avoid.
The S&P 500 is extremely overvalued, trading about three standard deviations above the norm. Concentration in 10-12 stocks, speculative leveraged ETF mania, and record investor complacency (three-quarters of all financial assets in stocks) have created an unfavorable risk/reward with 6-8% upside and 25% downside. A generational bear market could correct 40% or more to return to normal levels.
SPY AVOID
Semiconductors risk/reward unfavorable, avoid.
Semiconductors now make up 20% of the S&P and have been the main driver of the market rally. The risk/reward in the sector is unfavorable because the last leg of the move offers limited upside but large downside risk. Speculation in semiconductors via leveraged ETFs has increased volatility sharply, and the hot money setup is not attractive.
SMH AVOID
KRP royalty structure high dividend upside.
Kimbell Royalty Partners is a royalty company that takes a piece off the top without drilling costs, paying a 9-10% dividend. The stock has 20-40% upside potential based on pricing, and must pay out 75% of earnings, offering both income and growth.
KRP LONG
NESR overseas energy service great company.
National Energy Services Reunited operates primarily overseas in the Middle East and has not corrected much, remaining a great company. It is part of the attractive energy buying opportunity.
NESR LONG
AEM corrected 35% high free cash flow.
Agnico Eagle Mines is the number one gold mining holding, having corrected 35-40% from its highs. Its free cash flow yield is very high, and the wide spread between the gold price and extraction costs means the company will make a lot of money over the next two to three years.
AEM LONG
Leveraged ETFs amplify risk, avoid them.
Leveraged ETFs and single-stock leveraged ETFs have attracted billions in inflows this year, amplifying speculation and volatility. Historically, this kind of gambling ends badly when it stops working, making leveraged ETFs an area to avoid.
Leveraged ETFs AVOID
Energy sector cheap and underowned buy.
Energy stocks are cheap on a relative basis, significantly underowned, and generating high cash flows. They represent one of the best opportunities in the market as investors have been ignoring them in favor of hot speculative areas.
XLE LONG
Antero cheap natural gas producer buy.
Antero Resources is a top natural gas producer trading at only about 8 times next year's earnings, making it cheap on a valuation basis. The stock offers value in the gas side of energy production.
AR LONG
Gold miners cheap momentum washed out.
Gold mining stocks are very cheap on a price-to-cash-flow basis, with many correcting about 35% from early-year highs. Momentum-chasing speculators have been washed out, setting the stage for a nice move in gold miners and silver into next year.
GDX LONG
Silver set to move up next year.
Silver, along with gold and miners, will benefit from the washing out of momentum players and is set for a nice move upward into next year.
SILVER LONG
NOG high dividend hedged production buy.
Northern Oil & Gas provides a 9-10% dividend yield with production that is roughly 70% hedged, making the dividend sustainable. The stock was bought around $18-20 and is still considered a good buy with attractive income and upside.
NOG LONG
Debt unsustainability makes gold a hedge.
Unsustainable US government debt will push interest costs plus Medicare and Social Security payments above total tax revenue within five years. This fiscal trajectory makes gold and hard assets essential as a hedge against potential yield control or forced treasury purchases.
GLD LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jul 14
Jul 14
AA 1ST
XLF
MAGS 1ST
IWF 1ST
BTC
▾
HIGH
Alcoa benefits from US grid rebuild.
Alcoa (AA) is a direct play on the $2 trillion rebuild of the aging U.S. power grid, which is 30-50 years old in many places. The grid rebuild is a multi-year theme tied to data center expansion and infrastructure spending.
AA LONG
Bearish financials view without explicit short.
Avoid XLF: interview warns banks/financials are overbought and exposed to private-credit and CRE stress, but does not state an explicit short position.
XLF AVOID
Bearish Mag 7/mega-cap tech view without explicit short.
Avoid MAGS: interview argues Mag 7/mega-cap tech is under pressure from AI/data-center capex concerns and major institutional rotation out, but does not state an explicit short position.
MAGS AVOID
Bearish growth-vs-value rotation view without explicit short.
Avoid IWF: interview frames a secular rotation from growth to value as money leaves mega-cap tech/growth, but does not state an explicit short position.
IWF AVOID
Bitcoin is a buy the dip opportunity.
Bitcoin is a buy-the-dip opportunity after $2 trillion left crypto and the hype has washed out. The firm started buying Bitcoin for the first time during this pullback, seeing it as a hard asset play within the broader hard asset thesis.
BTC LONG
Stagflation supports gold miners now.
Stagflation trade: slower economy, midterm elections leading to fiscal control, sticky inflation creates a perfect environment for gold miners. Agnico Eagle (AEM) is almost 50% off its year high, with 7-9% free cash flow yield and stock buybacks. GDX and gold miners are deeply undervalued.
AEM LONG
GDX LONG
Silver and HL are compelling buys.
Silver and Hecla Mining (HL) are screaming buys. HL is 50% off its highs, and silver benefits massively from solar power construction and data center buildout worldwide. The selloff is overdone, creating deep value.
SLV LONG
HL LONG
Energy stocks are screaming buys here.
Energy stocks are screaming buys relative to the S&P 500, with extremely attractive free cash flow yields and heavy stock buybacks. Names mentioned: Occidental Petroleum (below Buffett's buy price), Chevron, Schlumberger (new AI play for the ocean floor), and the XLE ETF.
OXY LONG
CVX LONG
SLB LONG
XLE LONG
Natural gas equities benefit from data centers.
Natural gas equities will benefit enormously from the relocation of data centers to areas with trapped, cheap gas that lacks pipeline capacity. Over the next 5 years, moving data centers to these gas-rich regions makes natural gas an incredible play. The FCG ETF and Energy Transfer (ET) are the ways to play this.
FCG LONG
ET LONG
Healthcare sector rotation for midterms.
Healthcare is set to dramatically outperform. The sector has fallen from 16-17% of the S&P 500 to just 8%, and a rotation is underway as midterm election dynamics favor Democrats and fiscal hawks. The firm has gone long healthcare, highlighting Intuitive Surgical and Baxter.
ISRG LONG
BAX LONG
Long VIX for August-September seasonal volatility.
Volatility will spike in August and September, historically tough months, driven by Middle East tensions, rising inflation from strong distillates, and the Fed's inability to hike without blowing out interest costs. Longing the VIX via ETFs is a key hedge for the summer.
VXX LONG
Rotate from growth to value stocks.
A historic rotation from growth to value is accelerating as sticky inflation and the prospect of a higher inflation target force pension funds globally to shift allocations. Money fleeing the Mag 7 is pouring into value stocks. This is a secular move that benefits Russell 1000 Value over Russell 1000 Growth.
IWD LONG
Gold to $6,500 on financial repression.
Gold is a screaming buy after a 'hot money flush' and triple-barrel puke that washed out tourists. Financial repression, currency debasement, and the need to inflate away $39 trillion debt will push gold to $6,500 in a couple of years.
GLD LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jul 11
Jul 11
BHLL
WTI 1ST
CRAK 1ST
▾
HIGH
Penny stock silver mine restart possible.
Bunker Hill Mining is a historic silver mine that may restart operations because higher silver prices make the project viable again; previous environmental and management issues have been addressed, but it remains a penny stock that should be treated with great caution and is only on his watch list for readers to research, not a recommendation.
BHLL WATCH
Oil, diesel prices to rise further.
US oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, the Iran war has destroyed any incentive for peace and will force Gulf states to build pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; refineries will not be repaired while shooting continues, causing permanent structural supply damage. Diesel is up 30% YTD and ripples through every part of the economy, demand remains strong, Asia refiners prioritize domestic needs, and California faces potential rationing. Oil and refined product prices will go higher into the fall.
WTI LONG
CRAK LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jul 09
Jul 09
SPY
▾
MED
Stock market too big to fail setup.
The stock market is increasingly viewed as 'too big to fail' because 401(k)s are now the primary retirement plan, but ownership is heavily concentrated among the wealthiest. A violent correction would disproportionately hurt the rich, similar to 1929, and any government backstop would effectively bail out the wealthy, ending capitalism. This systemic risk creates a critical setup worth monitoring for a potential sharp equity downturn.
SPY WATCH
MED
14:13
Jul 07
Jul 07
ITA 1ST
TLT 1ST
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Defense profits capped by government intervention
Defense stocks may underperform in a national security-driven world because governments will cap profits and prioritize production of bullets and equipment over shareholder returns, making the sector a poor source of high returns.
ITA AVOID
Fiscal pressures push long-term yields higher
Interest rates, particularly longer-term yields, will move higher due to massive fiscal pressures from defense spending, supply chain security, reshoring, infrastructure investment, and population appeasement, making the old 'lower for longer' bond trade obsolete.
TLT SHORT
Iran/Hormuz risk supports higher oil prices
The Iran conflict will resume after the US midterms because key issues—tolls, sanctions, uranium enrichment, and Lebanon—remain unresolved, and Iran will need to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz again to regain leverage as oil flows increase, keeping oil supply at risk and prices elevated.
WTI LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jul 04
Jul 04
GLD
Business Development Companies (BDCs)
KRE
SILVER
RKT FLIP
▾
HIGH
Gold headed higher on structural shortage.
Gold is a monetary play with a structural shortage. Goldman Sachs sees gold reaching $4,900. Global central banks are diversifying away from the dollar into gold, providing a powerful force. It is a hedge against dollar debasement and inflation, and should be part of portfolios.
GLD LONG
Avoid BDCs as private credit stresses mount.
Business Development Companies (BDCs) are turning unprofitable as private companies face pressure from higher rates. Many are using POOP (Principal on Outstanding Principal) to pay debt with equity, signaling insolvency. The sector will continue to be stressed, and this is not a time to invest in BDCs.
Business Development Companies (BDCs) AVOID
KRE ETF unlikely to outperform going forward.
Regional banks (KRE ETF) are not expected to outperform. Small banks are story stocks and face structural disadvantages. Wall Street and institutional investors prefer large, liquid bank ETFs like KBWB, leaving regionals with a tougher environment.
KRE AVOID
Silver buy on structural shortage and demand.
Silver has a structural shortage versus growing commercial demand. Demand from technology (wires, soldering, solar panels) is a key driver. Chinese are aggressive buyers in both futures and spot markets. The recent price drop makes it attractive to buy. Silver is a commercial play and a portfolio hedge.
SILVER LONG
Rocket Companies runs mortgage business right.
Rocket Companies gets the mortgage business right and runs it efficiently. While other public mortgage companies overspend on hedging, Rocket's approach is superior, and Whalen, as an adviser, is more keen on such players.
RKT LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jul 02
Jul 02
US Dollar Index (DXY)
GLD FLIP
TLT
SPY
QQQ
▾
HIGH
Dollar drops to 93-94 near-term.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) will decline to 93-94 in the near term, providing a tailwind for risk assets and gold. This move is the final leg down before a massive dollar rally.
US Dollar Index (DXY) SHORT
Gold bounce on dollar weakness.
Gold will have a short-term bounce as the US dollar weakens toward 93-94 on the DXY. This bounce is part of the broader risk-on move before gold eventually turns lower.
GLD LONG
Exit equities, go 100% bonds.
His coincident macro indicator has crossed the equilibrium line today, triggering a structural recession signal. Historically, stepping out of equities at this point and rotating into bonds has outperformed the market by 3x over 50 years. He says step into bonds 100% now for a conservative profile, as bonds will outperform equities over the coming months/quarters/years.
TLT LONG
S&P 500, NASDAQ up 15% more.
Markets haven't topped yet; the blow-off top phase will likely push S&P 500 and NASDAQ up to 15% higher as liquidity and sentiment drive risk assets, before recession fears hit. There is no indication of a major top.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
Bitcoin bounce in risk rotation.
Bitcoin will experience a strong short-term bounce driven by DXY decline and rotation into riskier assets during the blow-off top. This is a counter-trend rally within a larger bear market.
BTC LONG
Small caps outperform in blow-off.
In the final blow-off top phase, money rotates from large caps into small caps and riskier assets. Russell 2000 has already started outperforming the S&P 500 over the last two months and that rotation will continue.
IWM LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jun 30
Jun 30
GLD
BTC 1ST
JETS
SPY 1ST
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold soft into September 2026.
After potential weakness into September 2026, gold is set for a very sharp move higher into March 2027, driven by inflation from high oil prices and geopolitical instability. The initial upside target is $6,900.
GLD WATCH
Bitcoin bearish, down into autumn.
The smart money behind Bitcoin futures and ETFs is looking very bearish. I think Bitcoin remains under pressure and will head lower for several more weeks into autumn.
BTC AVOID
Airline stocks face cycle risk in Q3/Q4.
The 36-year cycle from Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait is likely to impact airline stocks in Q3 and Q4 this year. This is not a certainty, but it is an area where you want to watch and protect risk.
JETS WATCH
Smart money exits US equities, more downside.
Commitment of Traders data released over the weekend shows smart money sharply reducing both long and short positions in Dow futures, indicating smart money is leaving the US equity market. That, combined with cycle turning points and a 36-year Gulf War escalation phase, makes me more bearish and suggests the recent pullback could be more than a temporary top. I’m watching for downside into the third week of July as a critical turning point.
SPY AVOID
Oil to $183 on Middle East escalation.
The 36-year anniversary of Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait and a rapid escalation in the Iran conflict will put oil in the spotlight. The cycles for oil are very bullish, and geometric analysis gives a price target of $183 per barrel for 2026 if the escalation materializes.
WTI LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jun 27
Jun 27
NLY
BTC
MSTR
SILVER
GLD
▾
HIGH
Annaly common offers high yield, low volatility.
Annaly Common (NLY) yields more than its preferred shares and the stock has very low volatility. As a mortgage REIT owning government-insured securities, there is no credit risk, only market risk, and Annaly's management handles that well.
NLY LONG
Crypto unraveling, Bitcoin and MicroStrategy down.
The crypto trade is falling apart. Wall Street killed Bitcoin by creating ETFs, and now the institutions are running away. MicroStrategy is in big trouble. There is a breakdown in the crypto narrative.
BTC SHORT
MSTR SHORT
Supply shortage supports gold and silver.
Supply of both gold and silver is insufficient, especially silver due to technology sector demand. Higher short-term rates compete with precious metals, but the long-term bull case remains strong. Inflation will also drive gold and silver once rate expectations adjust.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jun 25
Jun 25
SPY
Singapore equities
GLD 1ST
TLT
FXI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Prioritize capital preservation over U.S. equities.
U.S. equities are overvalued and face mounting headwinds including political gridlock, ballooning federal and state deficits, the threat of wealth and unrealized capital gains taxes, social division, and the risk that passive investing flows reverse. He believes the time has come to prioritize capital preservation over capital appreciation in the U.S. stock market.
SPY AVOID
Prefer Asian equities over U.S. equities.
The best growth is happening in Asia, and he would rather own equities there than in the U.S. He points to Singapore and China as preferred markets, expecting them to outperform U.S. equities given the latter's fiscal, political, and social strains.
Singapore equities LONG
FXI LONG
Gold bullish, cautiously building positions.
Gold benefits from fiat currency debasement, unsustainable U.S. debt, and central bank buying. After exiting a parabolic move, he has started buying gold again, though still setting conditions for full investment, viewing it as a long-term hard money play.
GLD LONG
Avoid U.S. bonds amid fiscal risks.
U.S. bonds are unattractive as rising deficits and debt make servicing costs a major challenge. The Federal Reserve is likely to tolerate higher inflation rather than aggressively raise rates, further undermining bond returns.
TLT AVOID
HIGH
14:00
Jun 23
Jun 23
BTC
MSTR
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Crypto bubble bursting, sell Bitcoin now.
The bubble is popping, with crypto leading the decline. Bitcoin has already shown weakness and is a high price for nothing; it should be sold. The house of cards around crypto is collapsing.
BTC SHORT
MicroStrategy house of cards collapsing, sell.
MicroStrategy and its preferred shares are part of a house of cards that is collapsing along with crypto. Its heavy Bitcoin exposure makes it a leveraged play on the crypto bubble unwind.
MSTR SHORT
Short long-term Treasuries as yields surge.
Bonds are getting ready for another breakdown with yields moving higher. The 10-year Treasury could break above 4.5% and head toward 5%, while the 30-year could rise toward 5-6%. The bond market is very weak and another leg down in prices is coming.
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond SHORT
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond SHORT
Oil prices to rise, think contrarian long.
Oil prices will keep going up despite the market pricing in a decline after the war. The consensus is wrong; higher oil is a long-term call driven by a weaker dollar and inflation dynamics.
WTI LONG
Emerging markets to outperform, rotate long.
Emerging markets will be recipients of a lot of capital flows as the US dollar loses value and US assets are repriced down. This is part of the endgame where global capital rotates out of US assets into EM.
EEM LONG
Buy gold, pullback is a buying opportunity.
Gold is in a major bull market. The pullback from $5,600 to $4,200 was a 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' move driven by war anticipation. Bearish sentiment is very bullish for gold, and investors should be buying at these levels. Gold will soar much higher as the dollar breaks and crisis unfolds.
GLD LONG
Short Japanese yen, further 30-50% drop.
The Japanese yen has already lost half its value from the peak and looks poised to lose another 30-50% quickly. Japan's debt crisis and rising yields will pressure the yen further, and a freefall could trigger cross-asset turmoil.
FXY SHORT
Short US dollar, reserve currency collapse.
The US dollar will lose its reserve currency status and a lot of value relative to other currencies as the day of reckoning arrives. US assets will be repriced down, and the dollar index (DXY) needs to break below 90 for a bigger decline.
UUP SHORT
Silver bull market, target $200, buy.
Silver at $65 is a historic breakout and a big bull market that has just started. After a massive overshoot to $125, the pullback is a buying opportunity. The long-term target is $200 silver, and investors should not be scared out.
SILVER LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jun 20
Jun 20
Equities
BTC
GLD
SILVER
AIQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Equities to bonds rebalancing underway
The bond market has already delivered a rate hike with long-term rates rising and corporate borrowing costs up over a point. Record allocation to equities versus bonds signals a massive rebalancing toward bonds and defensive assets as liquidity tightens and the market does the Fed's job.
Equities AVOID
AI and Bitcoin bubble deflating
The AI bubble is going south, with stocks up 10x in 12 months signaling a reversal. Bitcoin and Mike Saylor are spiraling down as liquidity tightens and risk preferences shift. He sold most of his AI stocks and expects a sell-off in tech and crypto.
BTC AVOID
AIQ AVOID
Central banks buying gold long-term
Gold is a monetary reserve asset with central banks continuing to accumulate. It has been beaten down recently due to the AI bubble, offering a great entry point for a medium-to-long-term investment. Central banks are not sellers and gold reserves are now larger than the US dollar.
GLD LONG
Silver industrial demand outstrips supply
Silver has an enormous commercial and technology demand component, with a mind-boggling deficit between production and annual tech needs. The sell-off provides a buying opportunity for an asymmetric trade medium-to-long-term.
SILVER LONG
Copper supply shortage for industrial use
Copper is in short supply with strong industrial demand; the supply-demand equation is evolving in a way that supports higher prices. He holds copper through an ETF as a medium-term supply-demand trade.
COPPER LONG
SpaceX dominates space launch and internet
SpaceX has a monopoly on space launch and global internet via Starlink, with no serious competition. He bought one share and plans to hold long-term as Elon Musk returns focus to business, viewing it as a very interesting long-term play despite market noise.
SPCX LONG
High-yield mortgage REIT with government assets
Annaly is a mortgage REIT with government-insured assets, a high dividend yield recently raised, huge spread from repo funding, and an expert team managing hedged risk. He stopped buying short-term Treasuries and moved everything to Annaly because there is no credit risk.
NLY LONG
16% yield REIT on conventional loans
PennyMac Mortgage Trust is a REIT owning almost entirely conventional loans (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) yielding ~16%. It benefits from wide spreads and government-insured assets, ideal for income as equities rebalance.
PMT LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jun 18
Jun 18
HYG
Credit spreads
MOVE Index
▾
HIGH
Watch credit stress for Fed pivot risk
Danielle warns that credit stress is building: no junk bonds have been sold in 41 days, bankruptcy filings are up 38% year-over-year, and if credit spreads gap out and junk bond issuance freezes, Fed Chair Warsh will be forced to pivot just as Powell did in 2018. She advises watching credit spreads and the MOVE index as the next tell for a potential liquidity crisis and Fed emergency action.
HYG WATCH
Credit spreads WATCH
MOVE Index WATCH
HIGH
13:00
Jun 16
Jun 16
GLD
GDX
ELATF 1ST
UNP
COPPER 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold is new reserve currency, buy dip.
Gold has replaced Treasuries as the global reserve asset. Central banks and countries are dumping dollars for gold, driven by US fiscal deficits and eventual inflation. Gold corrected from $5,500 to $4,000, creating a buying opportunity. Gold miners also corrected 30-35% and are attractive again.
GLD LONG
GDX LONG
Tungsten squeeze benefits Elante.
China controls most of the world's tungsten and is now restricting exports to Japan. He owns Elante, a tungsten company with very strong upcoming earnings. This positions the company to benefit from supply restrictions and critical mineral demand.
ELATF LONG
Union Pacific irreplaceable rail network.
Railroads like Union Pacific are irreplaceable assets; you cannot build a new 1500-mile rail network today. A potential merger with Norfolk Southern would be fantastic. The network is a durable competitive moat.
UNP LONG
Copper and natural gas for AI infrastructure.
If the AI narrative is real, massive copper and natural gas will be needed for data centers and infrastructure buildout. These commodities are cheap on a fundamental basis, and owning them gives exposure to AI without paying sky-high multiples. Also own copper producer Freeport McMoRan.
COPPER LONG
UNG LONG
FCX LONG
Commodity supercycle in early innings.
The next 10 years will be a commodity-based supercycle. Countries globally are hoarding raw materials (oil, fertilizer, critical minerals) instead of trading freely. This structural shift will drive commodity prices higher over the long term.
DBC LONG
Energy cheap, irreplaceable, high dividends.
Energy is dramatically cheap with high dividends (6-8%). Oil reserves and storage tanks are depleted, strategic reserve is drawn down, drilling is disciplined, and majors expect $150 oil. Pipelines and midstream are irreplaceable infrastructure like railroads. He owns producers and pipelines in a 'well to the end' strategy.
CVX LONG
MTDR LONG
EPD LONG
HIGH
13:00
Jun 06
Jun 06
ARM 1ST
AMD FLIP
BTC
NVDA
SILVER
▾
HIGH
AI profits taken, trade nearly done.
Chris Whalen sold his positions in AMD and ARM after realizing 150-200% gains in less than a year, as he believes the AI trade is almost done and the market is chasing momentum rather than value. He took the money off the table because he thinks the rally is unsustainable.
ARM AVOID
AMD AVOID
Bitcoin toast, speculative bubble burst.
Chris Whalen is highly bearish on Bitcoin, calling it 'toast'. He notes that BlackRock was selling its Bitcoin, MicroStrategy is insolvent, and institutional interest is fading as AI stocks offer better returns. He believes the crypto speculative bubble has run its course.
BTC SHORT
Nvidia unattractive due to financing customers.
Chris Whalen questions the attractiveness of Nvidia, pointing out that it has been financing its larger customers. He implies the stock is overvalued and driven by momentum rather than fundamentals, making it unattractive at current levels.
NVDA AVOID
Silver has compelling supply-demand dynamics.
Chris Whalen is increasingly favoring silver over gold, citing even more compelling supply-demand dynamics. He believes the industrial and investment demand drivers for silver are stronger, making it a better opportunity.
SILVER LONG
Bought back into best managed oil.
Chris Whalen bought back into Chevron after previously exiting the position to finance a house purchase. He considers Chevron one of the best managed oil companies in the world and is bullish on it as a defensive play in the current environment.
CVX LONG
Buying gold on price dips.
Chris Whalen is buying more gold as the price declines, following a disciplined portfolio allocation approach. He sees gold as a long-term store of value amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
GLD LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jun 02
Jun 02
DBC
WTI 1ST
TLT FLIP
GLD
XLE
▾
HIGH
Real economy shift favors commodities.
Money is moving from financial markets into the real economy, which fuels commodity demand and strengthens commodity prices. This transition supports a broad allocation to commodities as a real asset class.
DBC LONG
Gold-oil ratio implies higher oil.
The gold-oil ratio historically averages 20:1. With gold at 4000-5000, that implies oil above $200/barrel. Oil looks cheap relative to gold, and rising liquidity needs from a strong economy support higher oil prices.
WTI LONG
Long Treasuries risky with strong economy.
Long-duration US Treasuries are unattractive because the strong economy (7-8% nominal GDP) and potential Fed rate hike could push yields higher. A 100bp rise in the 10-year would cause a 7% loss, and 30-year a ~20% loss, exceeding the coupon.
TLT AVOID
Gold hedges monetary inflation.
Gold is a hedge against monetary inflation (not CPI) and benefits from ongoing global monetization of debt, especially by China. The strong nominal GDP growth and rising debt levels support higher gold prices.
GLD LONG
Energy stocks attractive late cycle.
Energy stocks are attractive as late-cycle positions. A strong US economy and the view that oil prices will rise (supported by the gold-oil ratio) make energy and resource stocks a good place to be.
XLE LONG
HIGH
13:00
May 30
May 30
JPM
C 1ST
PNC 1ST
WFC 1ST
GS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid banks with private credit exposure
Private credit default rates hit a record 6%, nearly 10 times bank default rates, and banks have significant exposure to non-bank lenders on a non-recourse basis. Whalen expects banks will take losses when the AI correction inevitably hits, particularly naming JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, PNC, and Goldman Sachs as exposed.
JPM AVOID
C AVOID
PNC AVOID
WFC AVOID
GS AVOID
Annally offers better yield than TIPS
Whalen believes TIPS are not reflecting true inflation (only pricing 2-3%) and suggests better alternatives like fixed-income investments such as Annally (NLY), which owns government-insured mortgages and pays a higher yield. He personally owns NLY.
NLY LONG
Gold and silver are undervalued
Precious metals, both gold and silver, are supported by scarcity, central bank buying for reserves, and silver's commercial demand from technology and AI. Whalen believes they maintain real value against inflation and is a buyer.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
HIGH
13:00
May 23
May 23
BTC
GLD
AMD
NLY
SILVER
▾
HIGH
Avoid Bitcoin, passive killed it
Bitcoin and crypto are unattractive because passive investment mechanisms (Wall Street ETFs) now dominate price action, making them vulnerable to large drawdowns. He advises taking profits and exiting.
BTC AVOID
Long gold as inflation hedge
Gold serves as a long-term inflation hedge and benefits from central bank rebalancing away from the U.S. dollar. The war-driven inflation and dollar purchasing power loss reinforce this position.
GLD LONG
AMD outperforming Nvidia, own it
AMD is outperforming Nvidia due to less crowded positioning. Whalen bought the stock when it was unloved and continues to hold it as part of the AI buildout theme.
AMD LONG
Annaly benefiting from mortgage servicing rights
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) benefits from higher mortgage servicing rights values as rates rise, which extend asset income and balance duration exposure. He is adding to the position.
NLY LONG
Silver commercial play on tech demand
Silver is a commercial play on metal shortages and growing technology demand, distinct from gold's monetary hedge role.
SILVER LONG
HIGH
14:00
May 21
May 21
TLT
VALE 1ST
GLD
EPD 1ST
XOM 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid long-term Treasuries, inflation rising.
Long-term Treasuries are dangerous and should be avoided because inflation is rising (forecast 4.25% in May, potentially 4.75% by fall) and the 60/40 portfolio has failed for years. Interest rates will remain under pressure, making long-dated bonds a losing trade.
TLT AVOID
Early commodity super cycle, buy miners.
We are in the early innings of a commodity super cycle that most investors are missing. He owns a diversified basket including Rio Tinto (iron ore, other metals) and Vale (iron ore), both with high dividends, as well as exposure to tungsten, fertilizer, uranium, and antimony. The cycle has been telegraphed for years but remains underowned.
VALE LONG
RIO LONG
Gold near-term downside, watch for shakeout.
Gold bullion and miners have a near-term downside risk because momentum players from last year's surge are still holding and need to be shaken out. He sees potential for gold to fall to $3,800–$4,000 before a sustainable rally. He is watching for further weakness and may trim miners more if conditions worsen.
GLD WATCH
Energy underowned, expect massive rally.
Energy is massively underowned at only 3% of the S&P 500, up 35% year-to-date, and will likely rip like gold and silver did last year as investors scramble to catch up. He owns a full spectrum from producers (Chevron, Exxon, Matador) to midstream/pipelines (Enterprise Products, Energy Transfer) to rigs (Transocean, Noble Drilling) and services (Schlumberger, National Energy Services Reunited). The thesis is supported by strong cash flows, dividends, and years of required maintenance work.
EPD LONG
XOM LONG
ET LONG
MTDR LONG
RIG LONG
CVX LONG
NE LONG
SLB LONG
NESR LONG
Hold short-term Treasuries, stay liquid.
He maintains approximately 50% cash in short-term Treasuries (maturities less than 18 months) because most companies are too expensive and few opportunities meet his screening criteria. This liquidity is a deliberate defensive position to deploy when better risk/reward appears.
SHY LONG
HIGH
14:00
May 19
May 19
NVDA 1ST
Consumer-Tech Stocks
CoreWeave 1ST
GDX
SSRM
▾
HIGH
Nvidia's earnings bubble will burst
Nvidia's earnings are in a bubble, not because of high P/E but because margins are unsustainably high, similar to the shipping stock boom/bust. The massive capital spending on AI without a credible monetization path suggests earnings will normalize sharply lower. He advises avoiding the stock rather than shorting it.
NVDA AVOID
Long resources, short consumer-tech spread
The trade is long resource stocks (energy, gold miners) and short consumer and tech names. This spread has generated 10% return in the last six weeks. The thesis is that resource stocks benefit from supply constraints, rising oil prices, and gold miners repricing, while consumer and tech stocks are overvalued and face headwinds from consumer recession and unsustainable margins.
Consumer-Tech Stocks SHORT
XLB LONG
CoreWeave is a bankruptcy risk
CoreWeave is a bankruptcy masquerading as a $105 stock. It owns expensive GPUs with long-term commitments but rental pricing will collapse, making the business model unsustainable. He recommends avoiding the stock.
CoreWeave AVOID
Gold miners are outstanding value
Gold miners are outstanding. The sector is out of favor, and with the Fed likely to print more money and bonds under pressure, gold and gold miners will go higher. He gives a specific example of SSR Mining (SSRM) which trades at 7x earnings, 75% margins, aggressive buybacks, and sold a major asset for cash, making it extremely cheap.
GDX LONG
SSRM is deeply undervalued gold miner
SSR Mining (SSRM) is a specific gold miner at 7x earnings, 75% margins, buying back stock, with a huge buyback program after selling its Turkish asset. At current gold prices it is deeply undervalued, and if gold rises, the stock could double or triple.
SSRM LONG
US Treasuries are in a bear market
US Treasuries are unattractive as long-term bonds are in a bear market. Yields have hit 30-year highs in Japan and 20-year highs in Europe, and the US 10-year is around 4.5-4.6%. With rising inflation, exploding deficits, and the bond vigilantes awakening, he expects yields to go to 5% or higher. He has more conviction in this view as price now confirms the narrative.
TLT SHORT
Oil services rally on drilling need
Oil service companies and land drillers, particularly through the OIH ETF, are in a strong position because the world will need to drill much more oil. North American production has plateaued, and with the drill-baby-drill narrative and rising forward oil contracts, oil services will benefit.
OIH LONG
Favor equal-weight S&P 500
The equal-weight S&P 500 (vs market-cap) is preferred because the market is extremely narrow, led by a few tech stocks. Equal weight had underperformed recently but the underlying weakness in the broad market supports this allocation over cap-weighted indices.
RSP LONG
HIGH
13:00
May 16
May 16
SILVER
SPY 1ST
UWMC
TLT FLIP
AMD
▾
HIGH
Silver strong on tech demand, supply constraints
Silver is surging due to Chinese tech demand for solid-state batteries, reduced mining supply from war impacts, and inadequate supply relative to industrial demand. He has been adding to his silver positions and expects the run to continue.
SILVER LONG
Stocks rise with inflation expectations
Stocks have always been a reflection of inflation. When inflation expectations rise, stocks go up because investors have no alternative to real assets. He dismisses apocalyptic scenarios and expects stocks to continue rising as an inflation hedge.
SPY LONG
United Wholesale Mortgage unattractive, risky
United Wholesale Mortgage is the largest non-bank lender but is losing money buying loans in the secondary market, trading low, and faces potential share overhang. Higher-for-longer rates will force consolidation and may lead to distress.
UWMC AVOID
30-year yields could rise to 6%
The long end of the Treasury curve will go higher due to inflation fears. The 30-year topping 5% is just the beginning; it could easily reach 6%. Inflation caused by Iran war and fuel costs will keep long rates elevated.
TLT SHORT
AMD benefits from AI spending wave
AI capex is so massive that multiple semiconductor companies are benefiting, not just Nvidia. He owns AMD and sees it benefiting from the AI building boom.
AMD LONG
HIGH
14:00
May 14
May 14
14:00
May 12
May 12
Fossil fuels
DBA 1ST
XLU 1ST
SOIL 1ST
ICLN 1ST
▾
MED
Commodities and energy for stagflation hedge
Pento owns commodities, agriculture, uranium, fertilizer stocks, alternative energy, and fossil fuels as part of a stagflation (sector five) positioning. He expects these assets to perform well in a stagflationary environment with rising inflation and weak growth.
Fossil fuels LONG
DBA LONG
SOIL LONG
ICLN LONG
URA LONG
Utilities benefit from stagflation
Pento owns utilities as they tend to perform well in stagflation, providing a defensive growth element within his portfolio.
XLU LONG
Gold and silver hedge against financial system distrust
Pento owns gold and silver as a wealth placeholder against distrust in the financial system and currency, but he is not overweight (6% position) because nominal rates are rising, which is not ideal for precious metals. He also holds a core 5% position in physical gold that he controls himself.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
T-bills to avoid duration risk
Pento is heavily positioned in T-bills to avoid duration risk as he expects long-term interest rates to rise in the current stagflation scenario. He holds no bonds in the belly of the curve.
BIL LONG
MED
13:01
May 09
May 09
KBE
AMD
GLD
SILVER
▾
MED
Avoid banks, loan demand weak.
Banks are not attractive right now. Loan demand is anemic. There are too many other sources of financing, and banks are the last place to go for mortgages or business loans. Non-banks are preferred.
KBE AVOID
AMD benefits from AI spillover.
AMD is benefiting from the massive AI spending that is spilling over from Nvidia. There is so much revenue opportunity that AMD is getting its slice. Chris has owned the stock for years and keeps buying.
AMD LONG
Adding to gold on pullback.
Gold has sold off, which is a gift. Chris Whalen is adding to his gold positions. Gold is a play against the dollar and benefits from central bank demand, with no strong correlation to interest rate tightening.
GLD LONG
Silver physical shortage causing squeeze.
Silver is in physical shortage and cannot be delivered in parts of Asia. Import issues into India are causing a squeeze. Structural supply issues and a generally inflationary environment support further upside.
SILVER LONG
MED
14:00
May 07
May 07
NVDA 1ST
SPY FLIP
▾
HIGH
Nvidia earnings unsustainable, vendor financing circular.
Nvidia's extraordinary earnings growth is primarily driven by margin expansion (from 40% to 75% gross margins), facilitated by vendor financing using its appreciated stock. This is similar to Cisco's model in 1999 and is unsustainable. The circularity between stock price and earnings quality makes it fragile.
NVDA AVOID
S&P 500 crash inevitable near 65% passive.
The US stock market (S&P 500) is approaching a critical threshold of passive ownership (65-80%) where a 1987-style crash becomes almost inevitable due to inelasticity and mechanical flows. Currently at 55% and gaining 4% per year, the window is 2.5 years out. Also, traditional DCF shows market overvalued by >75%, implying S&P below 2000.
SPY AVOID
HIGH
14:00
May 05
May 05
CCJ 1ST
SRUUF
GLD 1ST
XLE 1ST
SIL
▾
HIGH
Clear long-term nuclear beneficiary.
Uranium and nuclear power are the clearest long-term beneficiaries of the energy crisis and the Gulf conflict. The need for energy security will accelerate the restart of Japan's nuclear fleet and increase acceptance globally. He recommends the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF/SPU) for direct uranium exposure and Cameco (CCJ) as the largest miner. This is a multi-year thesis, not a short-term trade.
CCJ LONG
SRUUF LONG
Dollar purchasing power will deteriorate.
Gold may moderate in the near term due to a strong US dollar and rising yields, but over the next 9-10 years the US dollar will lose 75% of its purchasing power, as it did in the 1970s. Gold has preserved purchasing power historically and will do so again, making it a superior long-term savings asset. He personally saves in gold and expects it to double, triple, or quadruple in dollar terms.
GLD LONG
Unloved stocks now surging.
He allocated 25% of the proceeds from silver sales into oil stocks, which were unloved and undervalued. These stocks have already outperformed expectations due to the conflict-driven oil price surge. He believes the underinvestment in sustaining capital will keep oil prices elevated even after the war, supporting these equities.
XLE LONG
Outperforming physical silver, up 21%.
He sold 80% of his physical silver and rotated into silver miners (equities). The basket of silver miners is up approximately 21-22% while physical silver has traded sideways. He remains in the trade because miners offer leverage to higher silver prices and have better relative performance.
SIL LONG
Actual shortage coming in days.
Oil prices are currently anticipatory of a shortage, not the shortage itself. With floating cargoes and strategic stockpiles running out, if the Gulf conflict does not de-escalate within 7-10 days, actual physical rationing by price will drive oil prices significantly higher. The market is pricing in fear, but the real supply crunch is imminent.
WTI LONG
HIGH
13:00
May 02
May 02
NVDA
New York City residential real estate
SILVER
Silver miners (sulfuric acid independent)
GLD
▾
MED
Bearish on Nvidia (AVOID).
AI phenomenon is slowing down, costs are high while revenue is not materializing. Chris Whalen maintains a cautious and negative view on Nvidia and has not changed his bearish stance.
NVDA AVOID
Avoid NYC residential real estate.
New York City residential real estate faces severe political risk: rent control threats, difficult foreclosure processes, and government interference. Chris Whalen recommends investors stay out of NYC residential real estate.
New York City residential real estate AVOID
Bullish on gold and silver.
Inflation is accelerating, partly due to China's sulfur export ban causing sulfuric acid shortages that boost commodity prices. Chris Whalen is still a buyer of precious metals like gold and silver, and plans to increase exposure, viewing the recent sideways move as consolidation.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
Bullish on sulfur-independent silver miners.
China's sulfuric acid export ban will particularly impact silver miners that depend on sulfuric acid for processing. Miners without that dependency have a cost advantage. Chris Whalen is increasing exposure to silver and silver miners, especially those not reliant on sulfuric acid.
Silver miners (sulfuric acid independent) LONG
MED
14:01
Apr 30
Apr 30
13:01
Apr 25
Apr 25
NVDA 1ST
KBE
▾
HIGH
Avoid Nvidia, AI capex concerns.
Chris Whalen says he would not buy Nvidia right now because of concerns about the sustainability of AI capex, circular financing where Nvidia is financing customer purchases, and insider selling by major shareholders like SoftBank. He believes many AI data center projects will be cancelled and the tech sector needs to be approached cautiously.
NVDA AVOID
Bearish on US bank stocks.
Chris Whalen expects credit expenses to rise at US banks, hurting their stock prices. He notes that while banks have sold off slightly, they remain elevated and reflect complacency. Share repurchases funded with debt are risky and will dry up if credit losses increase. He sees a correction coming in bank stocks.
KBE AVOID
HIGH
14:01
Apr 21
Apr 21
SILVER 1ST
DBC 1ST
WTI 1ST
GOLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Commodities to trend higher to new records.
Due to money printing, government debt, hyperinflation fears, and the structural phenomenon of the unraveling petrodollar, gold, silver, and all commodities are poised to reach new all-time highs as they act as hedges and benefit from inflationary pressures, with gold and silver leading the way.
SILVER LONG
DBC LONG
WTI LONG
GOLD LONG
HIGH
13:00
Apr 18
Apr 18
BIL 1ST
IAUM 1ST
XLRE 1ST
KRE FLIP
RITM
▾
HIGH
Avoid T-bills due to inflation.
Given the inflationary outlook, owning T-bills does not provide a real return and is therefore a losing investment.
BIL AVOID
Buy gold and silver ETFs for mining consolidation.
Due to limited productive capacity in the mining industry and expected consolidation, demand for precious metals remains high, making ETFs like Amplify Silver, iShares Gold, iShares Gold Micro, and VanEck Junior Gold attractive investments.
IAUM LONG
GDXJ LONG
SLV LONG
IAU LONG
Avoid commercial real estate drag.
Commercial real estate is a long-term drag on communities and banks, with higher delinquencies, lower valuations for older buildings, and reduced tax revenues, making it unattractive for investment.
XLRE AVOID
Avoid regional banks for private credit risk.
Regional banks are heavily exposed to private credit, and as debt in private equity deals converts to equity, these banks will face significant losses, implying they should be avoided.
KRE AVOID
Buy mortgage REITs for high income.
Income is scarce in the current environment, and mortgage REITs like Annaly, AGNC, PennyMac, and Mike Nierenberg's REIT offer high returns in the teens, making them attractive for income-seeking investors.
RITM LONG
AGNC LONG
PMT LONG
NLY LONG
HIGH
14:01
Apr 17
Apr 17
LQD 1ST
DBC
XLP
TLT 1ST
GOLD
▾
HIGH
Avoid corporate credit.
In the speculation phase, credit markets are unattractive and should be avoided because liquidity is draining and risk is rising.
LQD AVOID
Commodities late cycle, be cautious.
Commodities tend to do well around the peak of the liquidity cycle, but we are now late in that phase; while they could still do well, caution is warranted as the cycle rolls over.
DBC WATCH
Favor defensive equity sectors, reduce risk.
In the speculation phase of the liquidity cycle, equity markets should be approached with caution; investors should reduce risk and rotate into defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities, which tend to perform better late in the cycle.
XLP LONG
XLU LONG
Long government bonds for duration.
In the speculation phase, investors should increase exposure to bond duration as demand for safe assets rises due to increasing systemic risk and falling term premia; this is part of a defensive shift.
TLT LONG
Gold for long-term monetary inflation.
In a long-term monetary inflation environment due to high debt levels, gold is a store of value and should be held as part of a core portfolio.
GOLD LONG
Quality equities with pricing power long-term.
In a long-term monetary inflation environment, good quality equities with pricing power are essential because they can pass on cost increases and should be held as core holdings.
QUAL LONG
Bitcoin for long-term monetary inflation.
Treasury QE (shifting issuance to bills) is providing liquidity that may lead to stabilization in Bitcoin prices in the short term, as shown by a correlation chart.
BTC LONG
Prime residential real estate long-term.
Prime residential real estate is a good long-term investment in a monetary inflation environment and should be part of a core portfolio.
VNQ LONG
HIGH
13:00
Apr 11
Apr 11
CVX 1ST
WMB 1ST
KBE 1ST
NLY
ITB 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid oil stocks after their run-up.
He liquidated positions in Chevron and Williams after significant gains and is not a buyer of oil stocks at current elevated levels. He would consider re-entering at lower prices but is currently avoiding the sector.
CVX AVOID
WMB AVOID
Avoid bank stocks.
He is not a buyer of bank stocks. He mentions this in the context of a defensive portfolio and his broader caution on the market.
KBE AVOID
Focus on income assets like mortgage REITs.
His portfolio is defensive and focused on income-generating assets. He mentions Annaly and AGNC as examples of mortgage REITs that are good for income, not for price appreciation (alpha).
NLY LONG
AGNC LONG
US home prices have peaked and will be flat.
Home prices in the US have peaked for this cycle, with Q1 2026 likely being the statistical peak. He expects flat to slightly lower prices for the year and potentially years of sideways action, citing affordability issues and specific market weaknesses in Houston and Clearwater. He advises sellers to consider taking offers now.
ITB AVOID
Gold and silver are asymmetric bull trades.
Gold is a monetary play with global central banks accumulating and supply constraints. Silver has commercial applications and also faces insufficient deliverable supply. Asia has become the dominant price setter for precious metals. He is actively buying gold ETFs and accumulating, viewing both gold and silver as asymmetric bull trades.
SILVER LONG
GOLD LONG
HIGH
14:00
Apr 09
Apr 09
GM 1ST
XLF
▾
General Motors reported falling Q1 sales, with Escalade sales down by double digits. The aspirational/high-end consumer is typically the last to weaken; a decline here signals broadening consumer stress and reduced discretionary spending. Avoid GM as a leading indicator of deteriorating consumer health, particularly in durable goods. A sudden Fed policy pivot or fiscal stimulus could temporarily revive consumer spending.
GM AVOID
medium-term
Private credit contagion risk is rising, evidenced by Fed loan reclassifications and Morgan Stanley reporting negative investment grade bond flows. Stress in private credit and shadow banking can lead to a broader credit seizure, tightening liquidity for all financial institutions and impacting their balance sheets. Watch the finance sector closely for signs of spreading credit stress and systemic risk. Swift regulatory intervention or a surge in Fed liquidity could contain the contagion.
XLF WATCH
short-term to medium-term
14:01
Apr 08
Apr 08
SILVER
GOLD
QQQ 1ST
▾
Speaker states silver has shown multiple bearish weekly technical patterns and expects a correction of "60 even more percent" from recent highs. Similar to gold, silver's rally is seen as premature relative to the business cycle stage. Technical analysis points to a substantial mean-reversion. WATCH for a deep correction. The expected decline is even more severe than for gold. Industrial demand for silver surges independently, providing support that offsets macro and technical headwinds.
SILVER WATCH
medium-term
Speaker is long-term bullish on gold but explicitly states "we are going to see another decline in gold" and expects "at least 50%" correction from recent highs. The recent spike exceeded expectations. Based on the business cycle phase (comparable to mid-2007), a period of liquidity shortage is still ahead, which historically pressures gold before its major bull run. WATCH for a significant pullback as a better entry point. The view is tactical (expecting a decline) within a strategic long-term bullish stance. A systemic crisis erupts sooner than modeled, triggering immediate flight to safety and bypassing the anticipated correction.
GOLD WATCH
medium-term
Speaker explicitly states "we have not seen the top yet," identifies the current ~10% pullback as a "buy the dip opportunity," and forecasts a "30%+ rally" in the Nasdaq to above 30,000. The economic deterioration (labor market, credit) is real but has not reached the critical "waterfall moment." Market technicals (bullish engulfing candle after >4 weeks of decline) and historical parallels (2000, 2007) show major indices can surge dramatically just before a crash. LONG because the set-up favors a powerful, final risk-on rally before the cycle truly turns. The speaker is personally "full risk on" in anticipation. The coincident indicators in the business cycle model cross into recession territory sooner than expected, aborting the rally.
QQQ LONG
short-term to medium-term
13:01
Apr 04
Apr 04
ARES
OWL
GLD,SLV
APO
▾
Whalen describes private credit as a "slow-motion trainwreck" with redemptions, reputation damage, and a potential "Lehman moment" for firms like Apollo, Ares, and Blue Owl. These firms face liquidity issues due to illiquid strategies, public scrutiny, and reliance on bank credit lines; Washington regulators are ignoring the problem, exacerbating risks. Avoid due to high redemption pressures, liquidity risks, and regulatory neglect, which could lead to defaults or severe losses. If regulators intervene or market conditions stabilize, the situation might improve.
ARES AVOID
OWL AVOID
APO AVOID
short to medium-term
Whalen states he is "buying some [physical metals] in the last couple of weeks" and is "more confident about staying long metals" due to supply constraints in Asia. The sell-off in gold and silver is driven by liquidity needs of Gulf states (e.g., selling for cash), but fundamental supply-demand imbalances persist, especially in Asia. The dip presents a buying opportunity for long positions, as prices may not return to these levels. Continued liquidity pressures from Gulf states or a resolution to supply constraints could dampen prices.
GLD,SLV LONG
medium-term
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