Ted Oakley: We're Toward The End, Late Stage Market, Lemmings Everywhere

Summary

Ted Oakley, founder of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, warns that markets are in a late-stage, lemmings-like phase where everyone is in and IPOs are booming. He is adding back gold after its correction, buying copper and natural gas as AI infrastructure plays, and positioning for a commodity supercycle driven by countries hoarding raw materials. Oakley finds energy dramatically cheap with high dividends and depleted reserves, and highlights specific names in energy, tungsten, and railroads while cautioning on private credit and overinvested baby boomers.

• Markets exhibit late-stage signs (IPO frenzy, everyone in, any strategy works) reminiscent of 1999.
• Gold has become the new global reserve currency as countries dump Treasuries; recent correction to $4,000 offers a buying opportunity.
• Copper and natural gas are cheap, fundamental ways to play AI infrastructure demand.
• A commodity supercycle is in early innings as nations hoard oil, minerals, and critical materials.
• Energy stocks pay 6-8% dividends, reserves are low, and pipeline/midstream assets are irreplaceable.
• Elante is a tungsten company set to benefit from China restricting exports.
• Union Pacific has an irreplaceable rail network and a potential merger catalyst.
• Private credit is a blowup risk, and baby boomers are dangerously overexposed to equities.