Chris Whalen: Warsh's Credibility Problem, Gold's Real Signal, & Why Your Annuity May Not Be Safe

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 01, 2026 at 13:00  |  38:49  |  Julia LaRoche Show
Speakers
Chris Whalen — Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors

Summary

Chris Whalen argues that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh lacks credibility and that the bond market is driving tightening on its own, pushing yields higher. He advocates for Gold as real money and discloses a portfolio heavy in mortgage REITs, select banks, and precious metals. The episode also highlights a warning about life insurer solvency from Tom Gober, criticizes PennyMac's earnings, and expects a home price correction.

  • Criticizes Fed Chair Warsh for inaction, recommends reversing last year's rate cuts with two quarter-point hikes.
  • Bond market is forcing rates higher; 10-year near 4.7%, mortgages heading above 7%, Treasury nearing 5% yield.
  • Gold seen as real money in Asia; Whalen keeps ~20% of portfolio in physical metals and junior miners.
  • Whalen discloses long positions in Annaly (NLY), Rhythm Capital (RITM), Flagstar (FLG), Schwab (SCHW), and Bank OZK (OZK).
  • PennyMac's (PFSI) disastrous quarter drags down the mortgage sector; stock hammered.
  • Guest post by Tom Gober warns large life insurers are short-funding annuities via offshore reinsurance, hidden by secrecy.
  • Home prices expected to correct as mortgage rates rise toward 8% and buyer exhaustion sets in.
  • Diesel and fertilizer shortages looming, but Washington ignores the issue.
Ideas
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 4:39
Yields rising, Fed should hike rates.
The bond market is driving yields higher independently of the Fed, with the 10-year near 4.7%, and the Treasury nearing 5% on 10-year notes. High deficits and an overheated economy keep pressure on the long end. The Fed should take back last year's cuts with two quarter-point hikes to confirm the market's message, otherwise credibility is at risk.
10-year US Treasuries MED
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 14:35
Gold is real money, hold as hedge.
Gold is treated as real money in Asia, India, Turkey, and the Middle East, where people take physical delivery and hold it as family wealth. In the West, gold trades mainly on paper price and market sentiment. Central banks continue to buy, and gold now qualifies as a capital asset that can be pledged for financing. Whalen keeps about 20% of his portfolio in physical precious metals and junior miners, view it as a hedge with limited downside.
GLD HIGH
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 18:31
Strong residential mortgage REIT, attractive yield.
Annaly just reported great earnings and is a highly focused residential mortgage REIT that trades at a premium to book because so many investors want its yield. The company is a big lender and issuer of securities, and its business model is a 'thing of beauty' that deserves study. Whalen holds it in a cash account to prevent stock lending.
NLY HIGH
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 19:06
Discount to book, smart management.
Rhythm Capital, run by a very smart former Bear Stearns banker, is a mortgage REIT that also diversifies into commercial real estate and other assets. It trades at a discount to book value (around 0.7x book) while offering a yield, presenting a value opportunity relative to peers like Annaly.
RITM MED
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 20:10
Turnaround team will save the bank.
Flagstar was bought well below $10 per share. Whalen has total confidence in the Flagstar team, especially CFO Lee Smith, to save the bank after the New York Community Bank mess. The team is capable of turning the institution around.
FLG HIGH
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 20:10
Low-risk growth, solid franchise.
Schwab is a low-risk growth story with a solid franchise. The only concern is the sharp increase in margin lending, but this is an industry-wide phenomenon. Whalen remains long the stock.
SCHW MED
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 21:10
Disastrous earnings, avoid the stock.
PennyMac just reported disastrous earnings, the numbers were too low, and the stock got hammered. PennyMac reports first among the mortgage group, so its stumble hurts sentiment across the sector and forces credit spreads wider. Whalen hates the quarter's statement and views the stock as unattractive.
PFSI HIGH
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 23:00
Unique construction lending model, discount.
Bank OZK has a unique construction and development lending model: it funds projects at the beginning of the life cycle and exits within a couple of years, passing the baton to permanent lenders. The bank keeps all its own cooking, does not participate out loans, and has very efficient operations with an efficiency ratio in the 30s–40s. It trades at a slight discount.
OZK HIGH
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This Julia LaRoche Show video, published August 01, 2026, features Chris Whalen discussing 10-year US Treasuries, GLD, NLY, RITM, FLG, SCHW, PFSI, OZK. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Chris Whalen  · Tickers: 10-year US Treasuries, GLD, NLY, RITM, FLG, SCHW, PFSI, OZK