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10:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
Empire
20h
ARB FLIP
ETH
HOOD
ENA
HYPE
▾
HIGH
Ethereum captures too little value; Arbitrum wins.
Ethereum L1 is capturing only a tiny and falling share of fees from Robinhood/Arbitrum growth, while Arbitrum is positioned to take roughly 10% of Robinhood Chain's fees; among HOOD, ARB and ETH, ETH is the least attractive and hard to justify at its $300B valuation.
ARB LONG
ETH AVOID
Robinhood Chain can double HOOD revenue.
Tokenized-stock memecoins such as Boner/HIMS create weekend dislocations and can look like unregulated equity derivatives or coordinated market manipulation; regulators focused on market integrity are likely to target them if they grow, creating a legal/regulatory overhang for Robinhood and tokenized equities.
HOOD LONG
Ethena Pay expands Ethena beyond crypto.
Ethena is evolving beyond the synthetic dollar into Ethena Pay, a neobank with 6% daily balances, 5% cash back, zero FX markups and multicurrency accounts; it has built distribution via Robinhood Chain and Coinbase, and the speaker's firm is a large investor expecting it to scale beyond crypto natives.
ENA LONG
Hyperliquid US path is major catalyst.
Hyperliquid is pursuing a US path via Kraken/Bitnomial's regulated DCM/DCO; if approved, US KYC/AML participants could trade on Hyperliquid, arbitrageurs would link liquidity between the US and international venues, and this would be a huge win for Hyperliquid volume and revenue. The speaker expects some version could be resolved this year.
HYPE WATCH
Own deposit takers like Nubank.
Remittance-only businesses are low-margin and lack customer loyalty; long-term value accrues to whoever owns deposits. Felix Pago's partnerships drive deposit growth to Nubank, so investors should prefer owning the deposit-owning institution, Nubank, rather than the remittance wedge.
NU LONG
Bitcoin uptrend can continue through year-end.
Bitcoin is in an uptrend through year-end; it was up 25% in August and could easily see another 25% over the next four months, supported by crypto's reflexive uptrend and improving fundamentals even with macro uncertainty.
BTC LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 31
Aug 31
Empire
4d
POKEMON CARDS
Tokenized collectibles
Collector Crypt token
GME 1ST
▾
HIGH
Pokemon cards outperform stocks and crypto.
Pokemon cards are one of the best-performing assets of the year, outperforming Bitcoin and the S&P 500. The IP transcends generations, and nostalgia plus pack-opening dopamine create durable demand from kids and older collectors.
POKEMON CARDS LONG
Onchain collectibles are fairer and more liquid.
Putting collectibles on chain is a more efficient way to distribute and trade cards than physical repacks or legacy marketplaces. Blockchain adds transparent odds, instant buybacks, vaulting, redemption, and open trading on venues such as Magic Eden or zero-fee marketplaces, creating deeper liquidity and a larger universe of uses for collectors.
Tokenized collectibles LONG
Collector Crypt token has ongoing buybacks.
Collector Crypt's token allows the community to participate early in platform growth. The protocol has a wallet that continuously buys back tokens, and the team also does non-programmatic buybacks around sell pressure and VC exits. The team says it has not sold token since launch, and more details are coming next week.
Collector Crypt token LONG
Avoid GameStop's collectible pack model.
GameStop and other non-crypto digital repack platforms offer no positive expected value and impose significant haircuts on buybacks. They operate as a turnstile with little collector retention, so genuine collectors migrate to platforms where they can sell commons and keep higher-tier hits.
GME AVOID
HIGH
10:00
Aug 28
Aug 28
Empire
7d
BTC
GLD
XLK 1ST
HYPE
ENA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin is a high-beta debasement trade.
With financial media declaring the debasement trade back on, there is a clear reason to buy gold, but Bitcoin serves as a higher-beta version of that trade.
BTC LONG
GLD LONG
Technology is the best inflation-proof asset.
In a scenario of untenable US government debt and potential currency debasement, investors should hide in inflation-proof assets, specifically technology, because it produces the most growth.
XLK LONG
Hyperliquid will continue generating massive cash flows.
From a traditional equity multiple perspective, Hyperliquid is fully valued, but recent political comments about bringing it into the US market have expanded its perceived total addressable market to include large US institutions, driving its venture-style valuation outcome.
HYPE LONG
Tokenomics overhaul and collateral diversification drive Ethena.
Ethena's tokenomics overhaul—including removing monthly VC unlocks, implementing a fee switch, and aligning value accrual to the token—enables real price discovery, while its diversification into higher-yielding collateral positions it to become the foundational yield asset for on-chain finance.
ENA LONG
Pump is undervalued relative to its revenue.
Despite strong revenue, Pump lacks a compelling long-term vision or narrative beyond meme coins and buybacks, making its future less exciting compared to infrastructure plays with massive addressable markets like Hyperliquid.
PUMP LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 20
Aug 20
Empire
15d
BITO
BTC
HYPE
UNI
▾
HIGH
SEC framework boosts US token issuance
The SEC/CFTC crypto asset proposal is a real catalyst because it creates the first US fit-for-purpose token offering framework, including a $75 million fundraising exemption and a safe harbor. Jason argues it lets teams collapse offshore lab and foundation structures into Delaware entities, improve token design, and onshore issuance, even if the market did not react strongly on day one.
BITO LONG
Don't nibble Bitcoin yet
Santi is not nibbling Bitcoin yet even with the four-year cycle conversation pointing toward mid-October. He wants to see option/leverage signals and believes there are more interesting sectors to park capital than BTC, implying near-term Bitcoin risk/reward is not compelling until the cycle inflection becomes clearer.
BTC AVOID
HYPE could reignite crypto interest
Rob calls himself a huge Hyperliquid bull: the tech is best-in-class, execution is strong, and Hyperliquid is serving demand for weekend price discovery and offshore perps that others are not serving. However, he warns that centralized venues and Nasdaq's move toward 24/5 and 24/7 will make the product access market much more competitive over the next 18 months.
HYPE WATCH
Uniswap may be regulatory first mover
Uniswap is the first project that comes to mind as a regulatory first mover under the new SEC framework. It has been through SEC scrutiny, is sufficiently decentralized, has community-driven fee switch discussions, and could reduce regulatory risk around a future fee switch by certifying under the new framework.
UNI WATCH
HIGH
10:00
Aug 17
Aug 17
Empire
18d
HOOD 1ST
UNI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Robinhood Chain benefits HOOD and UNI.
Robinhood Chain's launch with Uniswap as a liquidity partner has been an immediate success, generating some of Uniswap's highest volumes and traction in memecoins and tokenized RWAs. Hayden sees the chain continuing to grow, making it a new revenue line for Robinhood and validating Uniswap's value for fintech chain partners.
HOOD LONG
UNI LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 14
Aug 14
Empire
21d
COIN
ALTCOINS 1ST
FOMO 1ST
MU
SNDK
▾
HIGH
Stablecoin adoption benefits Coinbase and issuers.
Stablecoin adoption is strong even while token prices struggle. Companies like Coinbase launching their own chain have shown other boards that stablecoin and onchain infrastructure can print money, making stablecoin issuers and related projects broadly bullish.
COIN LONG
Token emissions and vesting pressure altcoins.
Retail has been repeatedly burned by token emissions and low-float, high-FDV launches. With heavily telegraphed vesting schedules, there is little interest in longing many altcoins or tokens, creating a structural wall of worry for token prices.
ALTCOINS AVOID
FOMO platform likely remains successful.
FOMO and Pump.fun are somewhat synergistic because FOMO routes meaningful volume into Pump's pre-graduation bonding curve. Rob believes FOMO and Pump will both be successful as speculative and social trading grows.
FOMO LONG
AI capex makes memory stocks long-term winners.
AI capex is climbing, neocloud contracts are being renewed, and AI hardware life is extending. Santi sees memory and semiconductors as a new long-term AI-driven upcycle, comparing memory today to Nvidia's earlier AI breakout, and says he would add to Micron on weakness.
MU LONG
SNDK LONG
SMH LONG
000660.KS LONG
NFTs cut collectible marketplace friction and margins.
Collector marketplaces have high take rates because they solve provenance, settlement, and verification problems. Crypto NFTs can remove physical possession and centralized intermediary costs, so Santi ranks NFT-based collectible infrastructure as an attractive sector despite verification still being expensive.
NFTS LONG
HIGH
15:10
Aug 10
Aug 10
Empire
25d
UNI
MORPHO
▾
HIGH
Uniswap token is investable due to design.
Uniswap's token design aligns incentives and represents equity in the decentralized network, making it one of the few truly investable crypto projects; Paul is a big fan of their approach.
UNI LONG
Morpho token is a compelling investable network.
Morpho has strong network effects, deep enterprise integrations, and targets a $200 trillion credit market, making its token a compelling investable project with a network equity model.
MORPHO LONG
HIGH
07:00
Aug 10
Aug 10
Empire
25d
MORPHO
UNI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Morpho will win on-chain credit.
Morpho is positioned to dominate on-chain credit because it functions as an open, easy-to-underwrite network with a public token, strong network effects where maximum connectivity between all lenders and borrowers yields the best product, and a modular curator ecosystem that already holds billions in liquidity. The upcoming Midnight fixed-rate protocol will unlock traditional finance obligations, and partnerships with major fintechs like Coinbase and Robinhood validate the infrastructure play. Winner-takes-all dynamics in DeFi credit favor the leading neutral protocol.
MORPHO LONG
Uniswap token design aligns incentives well.
Uniswap has done a very good job at unifying its token design to truly represent network equity, aligning incentives and making it one of the few investable tokens in DeFi, as few projects understand or structure tokens properly.
UNI LONG
HIGH
07:00
Aug 07
Aug 07
Empire
28d
NET
USDC 1ST
COIN
V 1ST
WU 1ST
▾
MED
Cloudflare captures agent identity and authorization.
Cloudflare's programmable wallet system for agents positions it at the center of identity and authorization for the agentic internet, using stablecoins and the X42 protocol. With 25% of internet traffic flowing through Cloudflare and agents expected to handle most transactions, owning the authorization layer will accrue significant value.
NET LONG
Circle is undervalued, diversified, resilient.
Circle stock is fairly valued at around 20–22x forward EBITDA, in line with Visa, but faces headwinds from rising distribution costs that consume over 60% of reserve income and a competitive stablecoin landscape (Tether, OSD, white-label solutions). The addressable market for institutional stablecoins may take longer to materialize, creating more downside than upside at current levels.
USDC LONG
Coinbase has better risk-reward than Circle.
Coinbase is preferred over Circle in a pair trade due to its larger market cap, more diversified business lines, and stronger relative upside potential. Coinbase has 12 product lines each generating over $100 million annualized, making it a more resilient crypto stock.
COIN LONG
Visa will lead stablecoin settlement evolution.
Visa is an incredible business actively investing in stablecoin settlement and tokenized credentials. As the world moves toward on-chain settlement for payments, Visa's existing network and its push into stablecoin infrastructure position it to dominate the next era of payments, making it a very bullish long-term play.
V LONG
Western Union faces stablecoin adoption hurdles.
Western Union's remittance customer base heavily prefers cash and USDT, and they have historically shunned digital card products. The addressable market for stablecoin-based remittances is smaller than bulls expect over the next few years, and while Western Union has trust and a vast network, the stock faces more downside as the stablecoin thesis takes longer to prove out.
WU AVOID
MED
07:00
Jul 31
Jul 31
Empire
1mo
UNI 1ST
ETH
SMH 1ST
HOOD
ENA 1ST
▾
MED
DeFi apps outperform Ethereum L2 infrastructure.
Amidst low TVL, increased hacks, and declining user activity on Ethereum L2s, DeFi applications like Uniswap and Ethena stand to benefit more than the infrastructure layers such as Arbitrum and Ethereum; the value accrual may shift to applications.
UNI LONG
ENA LONG
DeFi apps outperform Ethereum L2 infrastructure.
Ethereum/L2 infrastructure is framed as losing value accrual to applications amid low TVL, hacks, and weak user activity; bearish but no explicit short/puts call.
ETH AVOID
AI capex strong, semis long intact.
AI and semiconductor capex remains robust as Meta, Microsoft, and Google maintain or increase capex guidance; the useful life of GPU racks is longer than anticipated, supporting the long-term AI investment case; the AI trade is still very much intact despite volatility.
SMH LONG
Robinhood leading crypto, earnings beat estimates.
Robinhood is the most forward-leaning traditional company in crypto, with prediction markets, Robinhood chain, tokenized stocks, strong earnings growth (1.3B, +32% YoY), distribution advantage, and could serve as a leading indicator for crypto flows; the stock benefits from these crypto initiatives.
HOOD LONG
DeFi apps outperform Ethereum L2 infrastructure.
Arbitrum/L2 infrastructure is framed as losing value accrual to applications amid low TVL, hacks, and weak user activity; bearish but no explicit short/puts call.
ARB AVOID
MED
07:00
Jul 27
Jul 27
Empire
1mo
Tokenized Equities
▾
MED
Tokenized equities underhyped, poised for growth.
Tokenized equities are underhyped. They enable global access to US stocks and ETFs in a cheaper, easier way, particularly for non-US users. In time, tokenization will extend to real estate, art, private equity, and international stocks. Regulatory clarity will further accelerate adoption, and we are still at the very beginning of this trend.
Tokenized Equities LONG
MED
07:00
Jul 23
Jul 23
07:00
Jul 17
Jul 17
Empire
1mo
HOOD
ETH FLIP
MU
COIN 1ST
SNDK
▾
HIGH
Buy Robinhood, avoid Ethereum.
Robinhood's deployment on Arbitrum captures 90% of fees while Ethereum L1 receives under 1%, demonstrating broken value capture for ETH. Robinhood equity is a better investment because the application layer monetizes users directly, cutting out intermediaries. The risk/reward for Ethereum is poor relative to Robinhood stock.
HOOD LONG
ETH AVOID
Buy memory stocks on dip.
AI CapEx cycle remains robust with TSMC's strong earnings and CEO game theory preventing cuts. Memory stocks Micron and SanDisk have sold off over 30% from peak, creating a buying opportunity as demand stays high.
MU LONG
SNDK LONG
Coinbase leadership change is underpriced.
Coinbase's appointment of Kobe to lead trading products is a underappreciated catalyst. Kobe's trader background can improve the product and re-engage active users, similar to Kraken's revitalization under new leadership. Wall Street has not priced in this leadership change.
COIN LONG
HIGH
07:00
Jul 10
Jul 10
Empire
1mo
STRIPE
SOL 1ST
HOOD 1ST
COIN
BNB 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy Stripe, Robinhood for crypto gains.
After extensive research, Santiago concluded that the ROI of implementing crypto in small traditional businesses is insufficient and that larger platforms like Stripe and Robinhood are much better positioned to capture value from crypto adoption, making their equities attractive investments for those wanting exposure to crypto business transformation.
STRIPE LONG
HOOD LONG
Favor ETH, SOL, HYPE as pure tokens.
In the current market, pure-play, single-token ecosystems like Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid are the best-performing and most straightforward vehicles for betting on crypto growth. Projects with dual token/equity structures will be discounted, making these clean tokens the preferred expression for long-term ecosystem bets.
SOL LONG
ETH LONG
HYPE LONG
Long Coinbase and BNB as chain winners.
Centralized exchanges are steadily moving trading onchain to own the infrastructure and improve margins. Coinbase (via Base) and Binance (BNB) are among the best-positioned to become some of the largest blockchains, with their equity and token respectively set to benefit from this shift.
COIN LONG
BNB LONG
HIGH
12:00
Jul 03
Jul 03
Empire
2mo
HOOD 1ST
NET 1ST
▾
MED
Robinhood's wallet will drive growth.
Robinhood's dedicated crypto wallet is a very good product that will see high engagement, and deep integrations with protocols like Lighter and Morpho will make the offering best-in-class. This positions Robinhood to capture more of users' financial lives, drive on-chain trading volume, and build a moat, which should ultimately benefit the stock.
HOOD LONG
Cloudflare gateway opens new revenue stream.
Cloudflare's new monetization gateway enables pay-per-request stablecoin payments for millions of websites, potentially becoming a significant new revenue stream. As a dominant internet infrastructure provider with unique insight into AI agent traffic, Cloudflare is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of agentic commerce, even if volumes grow slowly at first.
NET LONG
MED
12:00
Jun 29
Jun 29
Empire
2mo
BETR 1ST
▾
HIGH
Market underestimates Better's AI platform transformation.
Better (BETR) is misunderstood by the market as a traditional refinance mortgage business that depends on falling interest rates. The company has transformed into an AI platform that modernizes the entire mortgage and home equity industry, with a structural cost advantage, a rapidly growing platform business serving partners like Coinbase and Credit Karma, and partnerships with Sky for tokenized mortgages. The CEO believes the stock is significantly undervalued and is personally buying it.
BETR LONG
HIGH
11:30
Jun 27
Jun 27
Empire
2mo
AI semiconductor stocks
POLYMARKET 1ST
Kraken (secondary shares)
SPY
▾
HIGH
AI market not rolling over near term
AI compute demand shows no signs of rolling over near-term. Short-term spot H100 rates fell 40% month-over-month, but long-term contracts are still increasing, as corporates continue to plow into multi-year AI infrastructure. Earnings growth remains intact, and each quarter the nervousness about AI capex ROI fades. The speaker explicitly says a real rollover for AI in the near term seems unlikely, implying the AI bull market continues.
AI semiconductor stocks LONG
Very long Poly Market
Poly Market has grown into the leading direct-to-consumer prediction market platform, posting huge volumes and now seeing institutional block trades and RFQ activity. The clearing opportunity is enormous, and the business could expand into a modern digital exchange far beyond sports. The speaker is an early investor and explicitly states they remain very long and very excited about the future of Poly Market specifically, calling the market undervalued relative to the opportunity.
POLYMARKET LONG
Kraken secondary at deep discount
Kraken secondary shares have sold off significantly from the last round valuation of ~$15 billion down to an implied ~$10-12 billion, a meaningful discount. The speaker views this as a pretty interesting discount, presenting a buying opportunity given Kraken’s ongoing product launches, acquisitions, and eventual IPO path via Payward.
Kraken (secondary shares) LONG
Equities top after SpaceX IPO
At the start of the year the speaker called that the US equities market would top once the SpaceX IPO happens. The thesis is that the IPO will mark the peak of the AI/capital flow cycle, after which equities will roll over. The speaker is watching for this event as a bearish turning point.
SPY WATCH
HIGH
13:00
Jun 22
Jun 22
Empire
2mo
ETH 1ST
▾
MED
ETH competes with Bitcoin as store of value.
Ethereum is wildly misunderstood by the ecosystem. Its primary competitor is Bitcoin as a decentralized store of value, not Solana or Hyperliquid. Ethereum's direction towards maximal decentralization, credible neutrality, and security positions it to compete with Bitcoin for global store-of-value status, while L2s handle differentiated execution competition.
ETH LONG
MED
12:00
Jun 19
Jun 19
Empire
2mo
LLY 1ST
MSTR FLIP
HYPE FLIP
ZEC 1ST
SPCX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long Eli Lilly on GLP-1 boom
Believes the only way to reverse public AI backlash is to show health benefits; GLP-1 drugs like Eli Lilly's are a massive, underappreciated market that will benefit from AI-driven health narratives. He is very long Eli Lilly.
LLY LONG
Short MicroStrategy blow-up risk
MicroStrategy's aggressive financial engineering and convertible note structure make it prone to a blow-up; Monte Carlo simulations suggest eventual collapse. He is extremely bearish on the stock.
MSTR SHORT
Hyperliquid overvalued, scale out
Hyperliquid's revenue has been stagnant and its valuation multiple is driven by ETF/Dapp buying rather than fundamental growth; fee increases face headwinds, and stakeholder conflicts may emerge. They are scaling out of longs.
HYPE AVOID
Buy Zcash as monetary hedge
Zcash at current prices (low 400s) is a good hedge as a potential alternative monetary instrument; they are actively buying more.
ZEC LONG
Short SpaceX on unlock overvaluation
After a strong rally, SpaceX has become a low-float meme-like asset with looming unlocks and overvaluation; they are flattening longs and preparing to short.
SPCX SHORT
Buy Bitcoin on dips
Bitcoin remains undervalued as the primary digital monetary instrument; large pools of capital (e.g., Jane Street, Tether) will step in on any deep dip, and Bitcoin will perform when dollar worries resurface. He is buying more on the current dip.
BTC LONG
HIGH
12:00
Jun 15
Jun 15
Empire
2mo
BTC
ETH 1ST
HYPE
ZEC 1ST
SOL
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin is digital gold worth holding.
Bitcoin is digital gold and one of the very few crypto assets that a global capital allocator would actually want to own. It has no problematic token unlocks and would see strong buying demand if the price fell to levels where conviction is high (e.g., 30K or 60K).
BTC LONG
Avoid Ethereum; no growth.
Ethereum lacks growth and its valuation at $200B market cap is hard to justify unless one believes it will become the next digital gold. The speaker is not a buyer of ETH.
ETH AVOID
Hyperliquid is the everything exchange.
Hyperliquid is building an everything exchange with unified margin to trade any asset (crypto, equities, commodities, prediction markets). It already has a dominant product with institutional-grade experience, a visionary founder, community-driven scaling, and revenue buybacks. Its true competitor is Binance, not just on-chain perp exchanges. The token has minimal early unlocks and the team is executing toward becoming the 'house of all finance', potentially capturing a massive share of global trading volume over time.
HYPE LONG
Avoid Zcash; privacy is just feature.
Privacy is a feature, not a standalone asset class. Revealed preference (e.g., DuckDuckGo, Signal) shows the addressable market for extreme privacy is small. Zcash's recent run-ups were driven by derivatives and FOMO, not fundamental conviction. It has no meaningful use outside its own ecosystem.
ZEC AVOID
Buy Solana for growth.
Solana is one of the few quality L1s that has real growth and working products. The speaker is a buyer at current levels (around $40B market cap) and would not buy Ethereum instead. Growth is the key metric, and Solana's ecosystem is delivering.
SOL LONG
HIGH
12:30
Jun 05
Jun 05
Empire
3mo
SPACEX 1ST
BTC 1ST
MSTR
▾
HIGH
SpaceX is a multi-trillion opportunity
Ryan believes SpaceX is undervalued at $1.75T IPO valuation based on a probabilistic sum of parts valuing 12 business lines including Starlink, Starshield, Colossus, and future space opportunities; revenues could reach $1.2T by 2035. He has been accumulating since 2018 and will not sell through lockup.
SPACEX LONG
Bitcoin could crash to $10k
Ryan thinks Bitcoin could drop below $40,000 and possibly to $10,000 due to a forced unwind of MicroStrategy's leveraged positions, reflexive market dynamics, and the fragile structure of DATs.
BTC SHORT
MicroStrategy's leverage will blow up
Ryan views MicroStrategy as a ticking time bomb because of its use of financial engineering (convertible notes) on a highly volatile asset; he compares it to Luna and expects the leverage to eventually unwind, causing the stock to collapse.
MSTR SHORT
HIGH
12:00
Jun 01
Jun 01
Empire
3mo
HYPE 1ST
VVV 1ST
REI 1ST
ETH 1ST
ZEC 1ST
▾
HIGH
HYPE is a catalyst for token re-rating.
HYPE is a breakout app with real product-market fit, fee streams, and buybacks. It can serve as a catalyst for token re-rating, similar to how the Google IPO validated internet stocks. The market is underestimating its value and the potential for token-based participatory capitalism.
HYPE LONG
VVV token enables participatory capitalism.
VVV token allows holders free usage of the LLM and captures upside in the protocol through participatory capitalism. It is a real example of tokens providing economic value and is a productive application of programmable money.
VVV LONG
REI offers real yield through reinsurance.
REI is a reinsurance business using stablecoin capital markets to offer 12-14% real yield. It leverages on-chain capital formation for productive underwriting, with the token capturing a portion of the cash flows. This is a real, sustainable business model undervalued by the market.
REI LONG
ETH is a neutral global settlement layer.
Ethereum (ETH) is the only credible neutral global financial settlement layer denominated in US dollars that cannot be unilaterally controlled or seized by the US. This makes it invaluable for central banks, countries, and institutions seeking a dollar-denominated system outside US control, driving long-term value for ETH as a store of value and collateral asset.
ETH LONG
ZEC benefits from growing privacy demand.
Zcash (ZEC) is a privacy-focused token that early adopters have identified as essential. As privacy becomes more important in the crypto ecosystem, ZEC exposure offers a hedge and bet on the growing demand for private transactions.
ZEC LONG
HIGH
12:00
May 29
May 29
Empire
3mo
IBIT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy IBIT for Bitcoin exposure.
MicroStrategy's financial engineering (leveraged Bitcoin via convertible debt and equity) creates NAV compression risk and may require more Bitcoin sales if dividend coverage shrinks. Directly owning Bitcoin through the spot ETF IBIT is a cleaner, less risky way to gain exposure to Bitcoin.
IBIT LONG
HIGH
12:00
May 22
May 22
Empire
3mo
ETH
BTC 1ST
HYPE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Ethereum overvalued, slow death expected.
Ethereum is overvalued; the rollup roadmap is broken, value is being sucked away by L2s, talent is leaving, and the asset will not recover to its all-time high without a major shift. It is a slow death for ETH.
ETH AVOID
Own Bitcoin for crypto exposure.
If you want to be long crypto broadly, you should own Bitcoin for its institutional adoption and network effect. Bitcoin is a sensible holding.
BTC LONG
HYPE best crypto bet, still early.
Hyperliquid's non-token markets (real-world assets like oil, commodities, stocks) continue to grow and crypto will rebound, making HYPE the best bet to express that view. The downside is limited relative to the rest of crypto.
HYPE LONG
HIGH
16:00
May 19
May 19
Empire
3mo
FGRS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Own Figure for high stock lending yield.
Figure stock (FGRS) offers an attractive risk/reward because the high short interest (85% of float) and correspondingly high borrow cost (30%+) create a strong incentive for long holders to lend their shares and earn that yield. This dynamic counterbalances short-selling pressure around lockup expiries and provides a differentiated reason to own the stock beyond fundamentals.
FGRS LONG
HIGH
12:01
May 14
May 14
Empire
3mo
SNDK 1ST
MU 1ST
▾
HIGH
LONG SanDisk and Micron on AI memory demand
Memory stocks like SanDisk and Micron are rerating because AI agentic workflows require more memory, shifting the industry from cyclical to structural growth. They trade at low forward PEs, have five-year contracts, and the demand for inference memory is secular. I bought spot and auto-call notes.
SNDK LONG
MU LONG
HIGH
12:00
May 04
May 04
Empire
4mo
DeFi tokens
▾
HIGH
DeFi tokens are fundamentally uninvestable.
DeFi protocol tokens lack fundamental value, have near-perfect correlation with the broader crypto market, and give token holders no direct claim on protocol cash flows or earnings. This makes them uninvestable for fundamentals-based investors. The sector needs better token frameworks, investor protections, and standardized disclosures to become investable.
DeFi tokens AVOID
HIGH
12:00
May 01
May 01
Empire
4mo
PUMP 1ST
▾
MED
PUMP token is undervalued with strong cash flow.
Pump Fun is the cheapest protocol in crypto, trading at half its market cap despite generating over $300 million in annual revenue from memecoin trading. The business has strong cash flow and durability, making the token undervalued relative to its fundamentals.
PUMP LONG
MED
12:00
Apr 27
Apr 27
Empire
4mo
ZEC 1ST
▾
LOW
Zcash benefits from quantum narrative.
Zcash has proactively embraced post-quantum cryptography, giving it a potential competitive advantage as the quantum threat becomes more imminent, making it a more secure and attractive network compared to Bitcoin and others that are slower to upgrade.
ZEC LONG
LOW
12:15
Apr 24
Apr 24
Empire
4mo
CLARITY ACT (POLYMARKET)
▾
MED
33% chance, theta decay, likely fail.
Rob believes the Clarity Act has only a 33% chance of passing based on conversations with DC lobbyists and the deadline before Memorial Day, with theta decay decreasing probability over time.
CLARITY ACT (POLYMARKET) SHORT
MED
12:01
Apr 20
Apr 20
Empire
4mo
BTC 1ST
HYPE 1ST
ETH 1ST
TSLA 1ST
NVDA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia to outperform Bitcoin in 12 months.
Nvidia will outperform Bitcoin over the next 12 months because Nvidia is a business with strong fundamentals in AI, while Bitcoin's thesis relies on continued money printing and is less compelling from a business perspective.
BTC AVOID
NVDA LONG
Hyperliquid better risk-adjusted return than Solana.
Hyperliquid offers a more compelling risk-adjusted return than Solana because it has a cleaner trajectory, a loyal customer base, successful expansion into commodities, and a more focused product that breaks correlation with crypto assets.
HYPE LONG
Ethereum overvalued due to lack of revenue model.
Ethereum is the most overvalued asset in the world because it relies on a monetary premium and lacks a sustainable business model based on execution and trading volume, and this overvaluation may not sustain in 5-10 years.
ETH AVOID
Tesla bullish on autonomy and robots.
Tesla is a long-term bullish investment because of its potential to achieve generalized autonomy in cars and to scale humanoid robots, which are underappreciated by the market, with most terminal value tied to robo-taxis and robots.
TSLA LONG
HIGH
12:01
Apr 17
Apr 17
Empire
4mo
HOOD
HYPE
ARB 1ST
KRAKEN 1ST
OP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Robin Hood benefits from increasing user engagement.
Based on personal spending patterns and the idea that companies where consumption increases consistently are good investments, Robin Hood has been held and added to as user engagement grows, similar to past successes like Amazon.
HOOD WATCH
Hyperliquid growth driven by weekend commodities trading.
Hyperliquid is capturing significant interest from traditional hedge fund managers due to its weekend markets for commodities like oil, which provide price discovery when traditional markets are closed. This could lead to commodities volume surpassing Bitcoin on Hyperliquid, making it a top-five crypto asset with a path to $100 billion valuation.
HYPE WATCH
L2 tokens are risky and may decline.
Layer 2 networks like Scroll, Optimism, and Arbitrum are underperforming due to lack of user traction and volume compared to leaders like Hyperliquid, and some protocols might go to zero as the market consolidates.
ARB AVOID
OP AVOID
SCR AVOID
Kraken well-positioned for growth.
Kraken is a well-run exchange with growth potential similar to Coinbase, especially after raising $200 million from Deutsche Börse, and it might be considered for investment in secondary markets.
KRAKEN LONG
DoorDash usage growth drives investment.
Following the same thesis as Robin Hood, DoorDash is bought because personal spending on the platform has increased year-over-year, indicating strong growth and investment potential.
DASH WATCH
HIGH
12:01
Apr 13
Apr 13
Empire
4mo
BTC
PREDICTION MARKETS
MORPHO PRIME VAULTS
STABLECOINS
DEFI FIXED RATE LENDING
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin as insurance reserve reduces volatility.
Bitcoin's volatility could decrease and its long-term value increase if it becomes a reserve asset for long-dated balance sheets like life insurance companies, which have a multi-decade investment horizon and would be uncorrelated, patient buyers. This would change Bitcoin's price behavior from being dominated by traders and arbitrageurs.
BTC WATCH
Prediction markets are a great uncorrelated risk primitive.
Prediction markets are a superior primitive for expressing and hedging uncorrelated, long-dated risks, which is a major need in crypto currently dominated by short-term, correlated trading assets. They represent an area where crypto's permissionless, global distribution channel is a clear advantage over traditional finance.
PREDICTION MARKETS WATCH
Prime vault yields are too low for the risk.
Prime vaults (overcollateralized Bitcoin/ETH lending vaults, e.g., on Morpho) offer yields too close to the risk-free rate and do not adequately compensate lenders for the underlying risks, which include market risk (volatility gaps), smart contract risk, hack risk, and operational security risk. The current low yields are driven by an imbalance of excess supply over demand and the protocols being 'brutal for the borrower' with instant liquidations, requiring low borrow rates to attract users. A fair spread above risk-free should be several hundred basis points.
MORPHO PRIME VAULTS AVOID
Stablecoins should stream risk-free yield on-chain.
Stablecoins should be allowed to stream the risk-free rate (e.g., from treasury holdings) directly to holders on-chain. Current regulation prevents this, forcing the risk and search for yield onto DeFi protocols and retail users. Enabling this would repricing the entire DeFi yield curve and make markets more efficient.
STABLECOINS WATCH
DeFi fixed-rate lending should yield above variable.
The fixed-rate term lending structures being experimented with (e.g., in Morpho v2) should, in an efficient market, settle at a yield above the variable rate to compensate lenders for the borrower's protection against instant liquidation (i.e., the 'phone call' restructuring benefit). This presents a developing opportunity in DeFi term structure.
DEFI FIXED RATE LENDING WATCH
HIGH
12:01
Apr 10
Apr 10
Empire
4mo
DASH 1ST
▾
The speaker explicitly states he is "piling into DoorDash" (DASH) and describes the founder as "the GOAT." He explains his personal spending on the service has increased every year for 5-6 years, a pattern he last observed with Amazon. He posits that in an AI-dominated market, "operationally heavy" companies will disproportionately benefit. DoorDash is cited as a prime example of an operationally intensive business. LONG. The thesis combines observed personal consumption trends with a macroeconomic view that AI will favor complex logistics businesses over pure software, suggesting structural growth and potential market outperformance. A macroeconomic downturn reducing consumer discretionary spending on delivery services, or regulatory challenges impacting the gig economy model.
DASH LONG
medium-term
12:00
Apr 09
Apr 09
Empire
4mo
VENICE 1ST
HYPE 1ST
BTC 1ST
ENA 1ST
NEAR
▾
Speaker names Venice and NEAR as interesting AI tokens, citing that teams are "still building" during the bear market. He states Venice's growth has been "through the roof" but is underappreciated. In a bear market, attrition makes high-quality, building teams more visible. Venice's significant but under-the-radar user growth and NEAR's continued development position them well for the next growth phase in AI and compute. Bullish on these specific AI-related crypto assets due to strong fundamental development and growth metrics that are not fully priced in. The broader AI narrative in crypto fades; growth metrics fail to translate into sustainable value capture.
VENICE LONG
NEAR LONG
Medium-term
Speaker lists Hype as a core holding, expecting it "will do well as RWA becomes a bigger share of their OI," and notes positive headlines around volume and their evolution into "everything exchanges." The growth of Real-World Assets (RWA) on-chain directly increases the open interest and utility of the Hype perpetual exchange. Its upcoming Hippo 4 upgrade expands its product suite into prediction markets and unified accounts, potentially capturing new market share. Bullish due to fundamental growth drivers in its core business and successful product expansion. The protocol, like others discussed, carries significant admin key risk which could lead to a catastrophic exploit.
HYPE LONG
Medium-term
Speaker states he is "pretty long" on Bitcoin, citing favorable positioning and highlighting the news that Iran may charge for tolls in Bitcoin or Yuan as a "huge" fundamental development. Bitcoin's value proposition as a neutral, global store of value is strengthened in an increasingly multipolar world where the U.S. is no longer the undisputed guarantor of order, and nation-state adoption increases its utility. Bullish on Bitcoin as it fulfills its core purpose amid geopolitical fragmentation and new demand channels. A smooth geopolitical resolution reduces safe-haven demand; the toll news may be more headline than substance.
BTC LONG
Medium-term
Speaker bought ENA after its announcement to diversify yield sources beyond treasuries, calling it "insanely underowned, super beaten down," and noting USDe supply has hit a floor. Ethena's plan to integrate new yield sources (e.g., prime lending, other debt) demonstrates the team's ability to find creative growth avenues. A floor in USDe supply establishes a base for potential future expansion. Bullish as the token is undervalued relative to the team's execution capability and the protocol's capacity for growth beyond the initial carry trade. New yield sources fail to perform or introduce unexpected risks; competition from other yield-bearing stablecoins intensifies.
ENA LONG
Medium-term
12:00
Apr 06
Apr 06
Empire
5mo
XLY 1ST
PYUSD
USDG
GOLD 1ST
BTC 1ST
▾
The speaker discusses the challenges of building a consumer-facing crypto exchange/brokerage, noting Paxos consciously avoided this path. He states, "the biggest businesses have been built around monetizing the fact that you can create retail access to crypto assets... I would never believe that." The regulatory window that allowed firms like Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken to acquire millions of customers was an anomaly created by ambiguous rules that hindered traditional brokers. This window is now closing with greater clarity, and the initial land grab phase is over. Future competition with entrenched incumbents will be fierce. AVOID new ventures aiming to directly acquire retail customers for crypto trading, as the regulatory and competitive landscape has normalized, favoring large incumbents and B2B infrastructure plays. A new, massive, and speculative retail wave could create demand for new consumer-facing platforms, but this is seen as cyclical and unpredictable.
XLY AVOID
Medium-term
The speaker is the CEO of the issuer for PayPal USD (PYUSD) and the Global Dollar (USDG). He states Paxos-issued stablecoins have grown from ~$1B to $6B in a year, gaining significant market share, and have unique regulatory advantages (multi-jurisdictional primary regulation). The stablecoin market is won on regulation, economics, utility, and liquidity. Paxos's white-label model and the member-owned Global Dollar Network address economic sharing. GENIUS Act clarity forces institutions to adopt compliant options. Liquidity builds a flywheel: higher market cap enables larger holders, driving more usage. WATCH as potential challengers to USDC and USDT, given their compliant structure, growing institutional partnerships, and the scalability of the issuer's infrastructure. Their growth trajectory is a key indicator of market structure shift. Liquidity is the hardest factor to build and is dominated by incumbents. Network effects are powerful, and competitors like Circle and Tether have massive head starts in integration and user familiarity.
PYUSD WATCH
USDG WATCH
Medium-term
The speaker states gold is "really widely considered" a risk-free asset and that you need to "be long the solution" like gold. He frames its recent price rise as indicative of how much the dollar has gone down. Gold is "geological proof of work," a tangible store of value that has preserved purchasing power (e.g., one ounce historically bought a fine suit or a month's soldier salary, which it still roughly does). In an environment of fiat debasement and global instability, it serves as a trusted, enduring asset. LONG as a permanent, non-correlated asset that protects against currency debasement and systemic financial instability, acting as a foundational "solution" in a portfolio. Central bank selling (e.g., Turkey, Poland) can create momentum-driven price swings to the downside, and it offers no yield.
GOLD LONG
Long-term
The speaker defines Bitcoin as "mathematical proof of work" competing with gold's "geological proof of work," while fiat currency is unsustainable "future proof of work" (debt). He states, "I think Bitcoin as a store of value is like in a very good position to continue to go up." Global fiat systems are debased (M2 up ~10%/year) to support excessive debt, creating a "disequilibrium." Assets tied to real "proof of work" (energy) are the antidote. Bitcoin's volatility is part of its path from speculative asset to store of value. LONG because Bitcoin is positioned as a scarce, non-debt-based asset that benefits from the structural decline of fiat purchasing power and is early in its adoption curve versus gold's $40T+ market cap. The "wall of worry" around upgrading Bitcoin's cryptographic algorithms over decades to ensure its longevity as a store of value, which is not yet proven like gold's millennia of history.
BTC LONG
Long-term
12:00
Apr 03
Apr 03
Empire
5mo
NOW
XLF 1ST
GOOG
▾
Santi names ServiceNow as a specific position he holds, citing a disconnect where some enterprise software/SaaS names are trading at compelling multiples. His background as an enterprise software analyst informs this view. He is accumulating equities he wants to hold long-term as they trade down. WATCH. He holds a position and finds the valuation compelling, but it is presented as part of a broader basket of opportunities rather than a standalone high-conviction call. Enterprise IT spending contraction in a recession; competition in the SaaS space.
NOW WATCH
medium-term to long-term
Santi describes a "crypto VC mass extinction event," where too much capital chased a not-that-big space, hit rates are falling, and "only a few funds will survive." The causal chain is that the easy money era in crypto venture is over, returns are collapsing, and the industry must consolidate. This implies most venture funds (a subset of Finance) are unattractive and will fail. AVOID. The implication is that broad exposure to the crypto venture capital sector carries high risk of failure and capital impairment; capital should flow only to the proven top performers. A sudden new bull market in crypto could temporarily resurrect fundraising and returns, delaying consolidation.
XLF AVOID
medium-term
Santi states he has a position in Google, finds it comfortable to own for multi-year periods because "it's a monopoly" and he doesn't think they will be unseated. He is accumulating names on his shopping list that are down significantly, focusing on long-term secular tailwinds. Google fits this thesis as a high-conviction, durable business. LONG. He is explicitly buying and holding Google as a core, long-term position based on its dominant market position and discounted price. Prolonged macro downturn impacting all equities; regulatory action against monopolies.
GOOG WATCH
long-term
14:00
Mar 30
Mar 30
Empire
5mo
CANTON 1ST
BTC 1ST
▾
Speaker is "super bullish on canton" because "when Wall Street is... writing daml you kind of like don't really need to know more." He notes Daml engineers are already at banks writing code, implying deep, real integration. Canton's technology (Daml) has achieved deep, technical integration within major financial institutions (Wall Street banks). This isn't theoretical partnership talk but actual engineering work, signaling a high probability of future large-scale, production-grade adoption for on-chain traditional finance. LONG. The depth of existing integration within the incumbent financial system provides a tangible moat and a clear path to significant adoption and value accrual as traditional assets move on-chain. Slow time to market or failure of bank-led projects to reach production scale, delaying Canton's growth and adoption timeline.
CANTON LONG
long-term
Speaker is "pretty bullish" on the "big three" including "Bitcoin soul." He notes the realized price (global average cost basis) is ~$56k and that Bitcoin historically doesn't dip far below this level. He also bought Bitcoin when it dipped into the $60ks, feeling it was a bottom. The realized price acts as a strong historical support level. Market participants are psychologically bad at realizing paper losses, making a sustained drop below this average cost basis statistically unlikely based on past cycles. LONG. The combination of a key technical metric (realized price) providing support, contrarian buying at perceived lows, and his overarching bullish market view indicates a positive outlook. A macro shock or regulatory event that breaks the historical pattern of the realized price acting as support.
BTC LONG
medium-term
13:01
Mar 27
Mar 27
Empire
5mo
SKY
WU
▾
Better, a traditional mortgage originator, is using a credit facility from Sky (a crypto credit protocol) to lower its cost of capital, aiming to squeeze out ~100 basis points. This demonstrates a real-world, non-crypto company using on-chain capital markets to supplement its traditional financing. The value proposition is lower cost and efficiency for the borrower, with no direct change for the end customer. Sky's model is gaining traction with legitimate financial institutions, showcasing a pragmatic path for DeFi to service traditional finance (TradFi) and capture value from real economic activity. Governance risk within the DeFi protocol. Scaling this model requires convincing more traditional companies to take on the operational and perceived risk of using on-chain capital.
SKY WATCH
medium-term
The CEO of Western Union stated stablecoins are "the most amazing thing" he's seen in 20 years in payments. The company can free up its multi-billion dollar daily float used for real-time settlements by using stablecoins. Liberating this trapped capital would allow for significant stock buybacks (the company's market cap is $3.6B) and improve capital efficiency dramatically. They also plan to roll out stablecoin-backed debit cards via Ramp to 100M customers, transforming receivers into banking customers. This represents a fundamental operational and business model shift for a major, legacy financial institution. If executed, it could re-rate the equity and validate the stablecoin thesis at scale. Execution risk. The CEO has promised blockchain initiatives before (with Ripple, Stellar) that never materialized. The company's large, legacy operational structure may slow or derail implementation.
WU WATCH
medium-term
13:00
Mar 20
Mar 20
Empire
5mo
HYPE
▾
Hyperliquid generated $140M in revenue over the last 90 days, leads in on-chain perpetual markets, and recently partnered with S&P to license S&P 500 perpetuals. High revenue and strategic partnerships indicate strong product-market fit, growth in on-chain derivatives, and potential to capture institutional interest as seen with S&P's involvement. Positive outlook due to dominance in a high-growth niche, but regulatory risks and competition warrant monitoring rather than immediate action. Regulatory challenges could hinder expansion, and fee compression or increased competition (e.g., from other chains launching perps) may impact revenue growth.
HYPE WATCH
medium-term
13:00
Mar 13
Mar 13
Empire
5mo
HOOD
MA
ONDO 1ST
AAVE
COIN 1ST
▾
Robinhood behaves better, has a more interesting customer acquisition funnel, and is doing interesting things around capturing the customer lifecycle from their titanium card to IPO access. As the regulatory environment normalizes, retail users will prefer all-in-one financial super-apps over pure-play crypto exchanges. Robinhood's superior product development and broader suite of traditional financial services give it a structural advantage in acquiring and retaining retail capital. LONG. Robinhood's product velocity and diversified revenue streams make it a safer and faster-growing bet for retail financial dominance. A severe downturn in retail trading volumes across both equities and crypto would disproportionately hurt their transaction-based revenue.
HOOD WATCH
medium-term
Visa is doing over six billion of annualized direct stablecoin settlement on the network now, and Mastercard is launching a crypto partner program to catch up. The narrative that stablecoins will disrupt Visa and Mastercard is false. Instead, these legacy networks will integrate stablecoins as backend settlement rails to lower their own costs and aggressively grow their highly profitable B2B and non-bank transaction segments (Visa Direct and Mastercard Send). LONG. Visa and Mastercard are successfully co-opting blockchain technology to enhance their existing monopolies rather than being displaced by it. Native crypto payment apps could eventually build closed-loop merchant networks that bypass Visa/Mastercard entirely.
MA WATCH
V WATCH
long-term
Ondo is a low revenue business that would not be valued at $2.5 billion in a public equity market. Crypto markets are currently pricing certain Real World Asset (RWA) tokens purely on narrative rather than fundamental cash flows. As the industry matures and begins valuing projects based on actual net revenue and take-rates, tokens with massive fully diluted valuations and low fee generation will face severe downward repricing. AVOID. The token is trading at a massive premium to its fundamental business value, making it highly vulnerable to a correction. The RWA narrative could continue to drive irrational retail bidding, or the team could announce a major structural change that accrues unexpected value to the token.
ONDO AVOID
medium-term
Aave is one of the only DAOs that has figured out how to make this work, with revenue going to the DAO, and it benefits from being a permissionless protocol that can operate across jurisdictions as a global money market layer. While many sub-scale DeFi apps will need to convert to equity to survive, base-layer financial protocols like Aave actually benefit from the token/DAO model. It allows them to bypass traditional corporate regulatory bottlenecks and scale globally as a monopolistic, borderless infrastructure layer. LONG. Aave is successfully executing the DAO model with real revenue accrual, giving it a unique moat against traditional fintechs. Regulatory crackdowns on permissionless money markets or smart contract vulnerabilities could impair the protocol.
AAVE WATCH
long-term
Kraken's product velocity has been better than Coinbase's, they just announced a deal with NASDAQ for tokenized stock registry, and they secured a Federal Reserve Master account. Coinbase is losing its institutional monopoly and product edge in the US market. Because Coinbase has historically tried to build everything in-house and compete directly with legacy players, they are being boxed out of major traditional finance partnerships, which will bleed their market share. AVOID. Coinbase needs a massive strategic acquisition to regain momentum, and until then, faster competitors are eating into their core business. Coinbase's Base Layer 2 network could generate enough on-chain revenue to offset exchange market share losses, or a massive retail bull market could lift all boats.
COIN AVOID
medium-term
Across Protocol posted a temperature check proposal exploring the move from a DAO to a US C-Corp where token holders could exchange tokens for equity at a 1:1 ratio or redeem at a 25% premium. The market fundamentally values the cash flows and M&A potential of a traditional equity structure higher than a governance token. This creates a direct arbitrage opportunity and sets a precedent for repricing undervalued DeFi tokens that choose to privatize. LONG. The explicit buyout premium and the structural shift to a value-accruing equity model provide a hard floor and upside catalyst for the asset. The DAO vote could fail, or regulatory hurdles regarding KYC and securities conversion could stall the transition.
ACX WATCH
short-term
13:30
Mar 06
Mar 06
Empire
6mo
BTC
XLU
GSOL
XLE
ICE
▾
Bitcoin rallied back to $72k-$73k with over $1B in ETF inflows. Despite equity market volatility and geopolitical fears (Iran), Bitcoin remained range-bound, indicating a lack of structural sellers. The derivatives market shows short-term downside hedging but long-term bullish positioning for the rest of the year. The resilience against bad news suggests a strong setup for medium-term upside. LONG Bitcoin as a resilient asset with strong institutional flows. Escalation in geopolitical conflicts (Iran) lasting longer than the market's current "4-week" expectation.
BTC WATCH
medium-term
Santiago discusses the "compute, intelligence, energy flywheel" and states that the "biggest bottleneck is just energy." As software and AI demand grows, the physical constraint is power generation. This implies a structural bull market for energy producers and utilities required to power data centers. LONG Energy and Utilities sectors as the "picks and shovels" for the AI boom. Regulatory caps on energy consumption for data centers; rapid advancements in chip efficiency reducing power needs.
XLU WATCH
XLE WATCH
long-term
Santiago argues that Solana (SOL) and other L1s have been "overly punished" and that crypto demand is still trending "up and to the right." While acknowledging many tokens aren't investable, the sell-off in major L1s like Solana is viewed as excessive relative to the continued usage and demand growth. LONG Solana (via Grayscale Trust or direct) as a mean-reversion trade. Continued regulatory pressure or a shift in developer activity to other chains.
GSOL WATCH
medium-term
Rob mentions "Jeffreer [Jeff Sprecher] and the ICE guys" are incredibly forward-thinking, citing their investment in Polymarket and now OKX (via NYSE/ICE connectivity). Traditional finance exchanges (ICE/NYSE) are effectively co-opting crypto infrastructure (prediction markets, spot crypto pricing). This positions them to capture value from the asset class without the direct volatility of holding tokens. LONG ICE as a proxy for institutional crypto infrastructure adoption. Regulatory blocks on traditional finance integrating crypto services.
ICE WATCH
long-term
Santiago highlights that Western Union is up 6% while Solana is down 52% (in the context of their bet). He notes excitement for their upcoming earnings and margin improvements. Legacy fintech companies are integrating stablecoins to improve margins and efficiency. This fundamental improvement makes them "more investable" than speculative tokens that lack cash flow. LONG Western Union as a value play on fintech modernization. Failure to execute on digital transformation; continued decline in traditional remittance volumes.
WU WATCH
medium-term
16:01
Mar 05
Mar 05
Empire
6mo
BAESY 1ST
BE 1ST
NEAR 1ST
GLXY 1ST
CEG
▾
Europe has committed 800 billion euros to rearmament by 2030. Trump is forcing NATO members to hit 5% spending targets. Regardless of the US election outcome, Europe is structurally forced to re-arm. This creates a guaranteed revenue pipeline for European defense contractors that is decoupled from the US tech cycle. Long European Defense Prime Contractors (Rheinmetall, BAE Systems). Geopolitical de-escalation reducing urgency for spending.
BAESY LONG
RNMBY LONG
long-term
Hyperscalers are becoming hardware businesses with compressing margins, but the compute build-out will last for 5 years. The primary bottleneck is energy. To play the AI boom without the crowded hyperscaler valuation risk, capital must flow to the power generation infrastructure required to run the chips. Gas turbines (Siemens, Bloom) and nuclear/grid infra (Constellation) are the "picks and shovels" of the next phase. Long Energy Infrastructure and Gas Turbine manufacturers. Regulatory hurdles for new energy deployment or a slowdown in AI capex.
BE LONG
CEG LONG
SIEGY LONG
medium-term
Near Protocol is launching "Near AI" (private models with Trusted Execution Environments) and has pivoted successfully to "Intents." The token is now slightly deflationary due to fee burns. Near is positioning itself as the "User-Owned AI" stack, competing with centralized models by offering privacy and sovereign control. The deflationary tokenomics provide a fundamental floor that didn't exist in previous cycles. Long NEAR as a beta play on the intersection of Crypto and AI. Failure to gain traction against centralized AI giants; "pivot fatigue" if the narrative shifts again.
NEAR LONG
medium-term
Galaxy Digital is "coming back from the dead" (up 12%) and investors are repurposing Bitcoin miners for High-Performance Computing (HPC). As the market hunts for compute capacity, companies with existing power and hardware infrastructure (miners/Galaxy) are being repriced as AI infrastructure plays rather than just crypto proxies. Long Galaxy Digital (US OTC ticker for Galaxy). Bitcoin price crash or failure to execute on the HPC transition.
GLXY LONG
short-term
Leopold Aschenbrenner (referenced investor) has shorted Infosys. The Indian IT outsourcing sector is a $300B industry representing 8% of the economy. AI agents are rapidly becoming capable of performing the specific white-collar tasks (coding, support, data) that are currently outsourced. This structural displacement renders the traditional "body shop" outsourcing model obsolete. Short IT Outsourcing firms. AI adoption takes longer than expected; companies successfully pivot to "AI-enabled" services.
INFY SHORT
medium-term
Speaker is traveling to China to meet founders; believes the market is mispricing the innovation happening there. Contrarian stance—while the West focuses on US AI, Chinese markets have been battered and offer deep value, particularly in tech and manufacturing sectors that are innovating independently of US supply chains. Long China Tech/Indices. Further US sanctions or domestic regulatory crackdowns in China.
FXI LONG
KWEB LONG
medium-term
Bitcoin held strong (-5% to -7% historically, but flat/up this time) while equities sold off on bad weekend news (Iran strikes). It is breaking important technical levels at $73k. The decoupling of crypto from equities during a "risk-off" geopolitical event signals a shift in market structure and renewed institutional appetite. Long Bitcoin as a hedge and momentum play. Escalation of war in the Middle East leading to a broader liquidity crunch.
BTC LONG
short-term
14:00
Mar 03
Mar 03
Empire
6mo
CCJ 1ST
HOOD 1ST
HNT 1ST
MKR 1ST
SOL FLIP
▾
"I think nuclear has a ton of opportunity... not just because of demand side because of AI but also I think the innovations to build safe nuclear reactors will be faster." AI drives a dual-tailwind for nuclear: 1) Massive energy demand from data centers, and 2) AI accelerates the material science required to build safer, cheaper reactors. This creates a structural supercycle for uranium and nuclear infrastructure. LONG Nuclear producers and miners. Regulatory gridlock; public perception of nuclear safety; long lead times for reactor construction.
CCJ LONG
URA LONG
long-term
"Whoever owns the customer relationship... and whoever owns the liquidity [wins]." AI agents and users will seek the path of least resistance. The value in crypto infrastructure won't accrue to the "pipes" (blockchains) but to the regulated endpoints that own the customer (Robinhood) and the deep liquidity pools (Coinbase). They are "natural monopolies." LONG Regulated Crypto/Fintech Infrastructure. Fee compression; decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like Hyperliquid stealing market share.
HOOD LONG
COIN LONG
long-term
"Markets hate uncertainty and with the two cap table structure right now markets perceive some uncertainty on value capture." Helium is undervalued because of the complex split between the company (Nova Labs) and the token (HNT). As the industry consolidates these structures (folding labs into protocols to align value), the uncertainty discount will vanish, repricing the asset higher to match its utility. LONG HNT as a restructuring play. Regulatory "hangover" persists; failure to successfully merge/align the entities.
HNT LONG
medium-term
"Applications capture 60% of the value but have a minority of the market cap... that to me looks like an opportunity." As professional investors enter the space, they will value assets based on discounted cash flows (DCF). DeFi protocols (Aave, Maker) generate sustainable revenue ($10s of millions), whereas Layer 1 blockchains are priced on speculative monetary premiums. Capital will rotate into these cash-flowing "equities of crypto." LONG DeFi "Blue Chips" with proven revenue models. Regulatory hurdles remain; "fee switches" (returning capital to token holders) could face legal challenges.
MKR LONG
AAVE LONG
UNI LONG
medium-term
"I don't think stable coin transfers deliver almost any value to a blockchain... they have to be essentially free." The market overvalues L1 blockchains based on the metric of "transfer volume." If transaction fees race to zero (to support AI agents and payments), L1s lose their primary revenue driver. The "fat protocol" thesis is dead; value accrues to the app, not the base layer. AVOID Layer 1s relative to Applications (The short leg of the pair trade). L1s could develop new monetization layers or maintain a monetary premium as "digital gold/oil."
SOL AVOID
ETH AVOID
long-term
"I think we're going to see ASICs everywhere because chip design has been one of the most human capital constrained things out there." Chip design software (EDA) has been limited by the number of human engineers. AI removes this bottleneck, allowing companies to design custom chips (ASICs) for every specific workload. This leads to an explosion in volume for the software providers that power chip design. LONG EDA Software monopolies (Cadence/Synopsys). AI models eventually writing their own chip design code without legacy EDA tools (disintermediation).
SNPS LONG
CDNS LONG
long-term
"The winners in the equity markets right now have been concentrated in... memory stocks... areas of scarcity where there's a supply demand imbalance." While the rate of change for general Hyperscaler Capex may slow, specific components like High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) remain the bottleneck for AI compute. These companies hold pricing power regardless of the broader tech cycle. LONG Memory manufacturers. Cyclical nature of the memory market; oversupply if Capex slows significantly.
MU LONG
short-term
"AI is not making any more land." In a future where AI creates an abundance of digital goods and labor (deflation), capital will flee to assets that cannot be printed or automated. Physical land becomes the ultimate store of value and scarcity. LONG Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Commercial real estate collapse due to remote work/AI displacing office jobs.
VNQ LONG
long-term
13:01
Feb 27
Feb 27
Empire
6mo
XLF
PLTR
HOOD
KRE
COIN 1ST
▾
The OCC released guidance effectively prohibiting stablecoin issuers from passing yield to end customers. The speaker notes, "This is basically just being done to protect the banks... banks are scared shitless." While the speaker views this as "regressive" for innovation, the second-order effect is bullish for incumbent banks. By legally blocking fintechs/stablecoins from offering yield on deposits, the government is enforcing a "regulatory moat" that protects the banks' Net Interest Margin (NIM) and prevents deposit flight to higher-yielding digital alternatives. LONG (Regulatory Capture Play). The banking lobby is successfully neutralizing the fintech threat. The guidance is just a proposal; future legislation could reverse this and allow yield pass-through.
XLF WATCH
KRE WATCH
medium-term
The host highlights Michael Burry's recent analysis on Palantir, calling it "pretty eye-opening." Michael Burry is a legendary contrarian value investor. His attention on a specific ticker usually signals a deep dislocation (either a value buy or a conviction short). While the specific direction wasn't detailed in the clip, the endorsement of the *analysis* suggests PLTR is at a pivotal inflection point worthy of immediate attention. WATCH. Burry's positions are often volatile and contrarian; without reading the specific Substack entry, the direction is ambiguous.
PLTR WATCH
short-term
Robinhood is launching a "billion-dollar closed-end fund" (likely an IPO'd vehicle) that holds shares in high-demand private companies like Stripe, SpaceX, and Databricks. Historically, Robinhood struggled to offer private shares due to transfer restrictions (RoFRs) and operational friction (SPVs). By aggregating this into a public closed-end fund, they solve the "access" problem for retail and the "liquidity" problem for employees/founders. This creates a highly differentiated product with a recurring 2% management fee, positioning HOOD as the bridge between retail and private equity. LONG. This is a scalable structural advantage that competitors lack. Volatility in the underlying private marks; potential discount to NAV for the closed-end fund.
HOOD WATCH
medium-term
Circle (issuer of USDC) posted strong earnings (beating consensus $0.43 vs $0.16) and its secondary market stock price is up ~50% ($60 to $90). Coinbase is the primary strategic partner and equity holder in Circle. While the speaker notes a "mix shift" where more USDC is off-Coinbase (meaning Coinbase takes a smaller % of the *total* pie), the massive expansion of the pie (Circle's valuation and adoption) directly benefits Coinbase's balance sheet and equity investment. If Circle is the "only pure play" on stablecoins and is winning, Coinbase is the best public proxy. LONG. Regulatory crackdowns on stablecoins; continued margin compression if USDC moves off-platform.
COIN LONG
medium-term
14:45
Feb 23
Feb 23
Empire
6mo
BLK 1ST
ICE
PYPL 1ST
▾
Bryan mentions "14 trillion dollar BlackRock saying every day that public chains... there actually is real appetite for using public chains." The launch of institutional-grade, high-throughput chains (like Zero) removes the technical bottlenecks (speed/cost) that prevented asset managers from tokenizing funds at scale. BlackRock is explicitly named as a driver of this demand. As infrastructure matures, BlackRock's tokenized AUM (e.g., BUIDL) is likely to expand significantly. LONG. BlackRock is positioning itself to be the dominant issuer of tokenized real-world assets (RWA). Slow regulatory approval for tokenized securities.
BLK LONG
long-term
Bryan explicitly lists the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) as a launch partner for Zero, stating they "stood on stage with... DTCC and the Intercontinental Exchange." He notes that institutions are driven by the fear of disruption and the desire to own the infrastructure of "next-generation markets" (24/7 trading). ICE (parent company of the NYSE) partnering with a high-throughput blockchain indicates a strategic pivot toward 24/7 settlement and tokenized equity trading. If Zero succeeds in becoming the rail for institutional capital, ICE is positioned to be the primary regulated bridge/venue for this volume, protecting its moat against crypto-native disruptors. LONG. ICE is effectively hedging its legacy monopoly by integrating the technology that threatens it. Regulatory roadblocks for 24/7 equity markets; failure of the Zero blockchain to gain traction.
ICE LONG
long-term
Bryan identifies PayPal (PYUSD) as a key customer/asset issuer they are building for. He states, "Our customers are USDT, WBTC... and PYUSD from PayPal." He argues that asset issuers are the "pull" that brings value to a chain. PayPal is aggressively pushing into the stablecoin market. By integrating with a 2 million TPS chain, PayPal can offer micro-transaction payments (paying "1/10,000th of a penny" in fees) that are impossible on Ethereum Mainnet. This enables new high-volume merchant use cases, driving PYUSD velocity and float revenue. LONG. PayPal is moving faster than other fintechs to utilize high-performance rails for actual commerce, not just speculation. Stablecoin regulation; lack of merchant adoption of crypto payments.
PYPL LONG
medium-term
13:01
Feb 20
Feb 20
Empire
6mo
COIN
ETHE
HOOD
GSOL
▾
Rob notes that while Base (Coinbase's L2) doesn't strictly "need" a token to function, if they launch one, "The easiest thing for them to do will be for to put a significant amount of it on the Coinbase balance sheet... and then you tell the investors that you are getting exposure to the base token through the Coinbase balance sheet holdings." Unlike standalone L2 projects (like Optimism) where value leakage occurs between the equity company and the token, Coinbase is positioning to capture the full economic value of the Base network. Whether through sequencer fees or holding a future token on the balance sheet, COIN equity becomes the direct proxy for the success of the Base ecosystem. LONG. COIN acts as a diversified infrastructure play (Exchange + L2 + Stablecoin yield) without the "worthless governance token" risk of standalone L2s. Regulatory action against Coinbase regarding staking or token classification; Base decentralization failing.
COIN WATCH
Medium-term
"For the L1's... you have to decentralize like that is the only way the L1's work over time... you have to launch a token... The L2s frankly don't need tokens... they can use ETH, right, as a gas token." There is a fundamental "Reason to Exist" gap between L1 and L2 tokens. L1 tokens (Solana, Ethereum) are structurally required for network security (paying validators). L2 tokens are often superfluous governance instruments. Therefore, long-term investment capital will concentrate in the L1 assets that accrue real network value, while L2 tokens will suffer from a lack of utility. LONG L1 proxies (Solana/Ethereum) as the superior asset class over L2s. Technological obsolescence of current L1s; fragmentation of liquidity.
ETHE WATCH
GSOL WATCH
Long-term
"Robinhood for instance... they've kind of got this Arbitrum side chain but you're taking a Robinhood counterparty risk... They really want to move into this kind of like exchange for everything model." Robinhood is attempting to replicate the Coinbase/Base model but with a more centralized approach (sidechain vs. L2). While they are entering the "on-chain settlement" race, their closed-loop system presents higher counterparty risk compared to decentralized L1s, potentially limiting institutional adoption of their specific chain infrastructure. WATCH. Monitor if their "Arbitrum sidechain" gains traction or if users prefer the more decentralized Base (Coinbase) ecosystem. Failure to attract developers to a centralized chain; regulatory scrutiny on crypto offerings.
HOOD WATCH
Medium-term
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