Name: State of The Market, The Prediction Market Wars & Kraken Pursues Aave
Uploaded: 2026-06-27T11:30:00+00:00
Duration: 3217 s

Speakers

Rob Hadick — General Partner, Dragonfly

Santiago R. Santos — Co-Host, Empire / Founder, Inversion Capital

Summary

Hosts Jason Yanowitz and Santiago Santos, along with guest Rob Hadick (Dragonfly), review the current macro and crypto market malaise, anchored by weak deal count and a risk-off tone. They discuss why Rob sees no near-term AI rollover and stays very long Poly Market. The episode also covers the Kraken/Aave deal rumors, the hot secondary market for Kraken shares, Fomo's $75M raise, and a bullish stance on the World Cup.

Crypto VC deal count hits lowest since Q4 2020, while later-stage and stablecoin fintech picks up
Rob argues AI demand is not rolling over near-term, with long-term compute contracts still rising
Rob reiterates a strong conviction long in Poly Market and prediction markets more broadly
Santi flags Kraken secondary shares as an interesting discount after the pullback
Kraken's rumored Aave investment is seen as a strategic move to deepen onchain lending relationships
Fomo raised $75M from Benchmark, Index, USV to build a social trading platform across asset classes
Content: US men's national team World Cup run, Henry Kravis blog posts, and Bending Spoons IPO prep

Ideas

Santiago R. Santos Co-Host, Empire / Founder, Inversion Capital 2:56

Equities top after SpaceX IPO

At the start of the year the speaker called that the US equities market would top once the SpaceX IPO happens. The thesis is that the IPO will mark the peak of the AI/capital flow cycle, after which equities will roll over. The speaker is watching for this event as a bearish turning point.

Rob Hadick General Partner, Dragonfly 4:30

AI market not rolling over near term

AI compute demand shows no signs of rolling over near-term. Short-term spot H100 rates fell 40% month-over-month, but long-term contracts are still increasing, as corporates continue to plow into multi-year AI infrastructure. Earnings growth remains intact, and each quarter the nervousness about AI capex ROI fades. The speaker explicitly says a real rollover for AI in the near term seems unlikely, implying the AI bull market continues.

Rob Hadick General Partner, Dragonfly 31:32

Very long Poly Market

Poly Market has grown into the leading direct-to-consumer prediction market platform, posting huge volumes and now seeing institutional block trades and RFQ activity. The clearing opportunity is enormous, and the business could expand into a modern digital exchange far beyond sports. The speaker is an early investor and explicitly states they remain very long and very excited about the future of Poly Market specifically, calling the market undervalued relative to the opportunity.

Santiago R. Santos Co-Host, Empire / Founder, Inversion Capital 46:52

Kraken secondary at deep discount

Kraken secondary shares have sold off significantly from the last round valuation of ~$15 billion down to an implied ~$10-12 billion, a meaningful discount. The speaker views this as a pretty interesting discount, presenting a buying opportunity given Kraken’s ongoing product launches, acquisitions, and eventual IPO path via Payward.

This Empire video, published June 27, 2026, features Santiago R. Santos, Rob Hadick discussing SPY, AI semiconductor stocks, POLYMARKET, Kraken (secondary shares). 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Santiago R. Santos, Rob Hadick · Tickers: SPY, AI semiconductor stocks, POLYMARKET, Kraken (secondary shares)

State of The Market, The Prediction Market Wars & Kraken Pursues Aave

Summary

Ideas

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