Ryan Watkins 2.4 6 ideas

Watkins admits, "We're still figuring out what is the point of this stuff... it could actually be another 3 to 5 years." These sectors are currently in the "trough of disillusionment." Unlike DeFi/Perps which have current PMF, these sectors require a longer gestation period for technology and consumer behavior to align. The opportunity cost of holding these assets is high compared to productive crypto assets. Avoid for now. Wait for signs of life before re-entering. A breakout hit game or viral NFT trend could spark a localized rally.

The sector is in a "trough of disillusionment" because the old model (giving tokens to hardware providers) is broken and inflationary. However, new projects like "Daylight" are finding alternative financing mechanisms. The sector is not dead, but it is undergoing a necessary pivot in business models. It is currently too early to buy the broad sector, but specific projects solving the "token inflation" problem represent the next wave of winners. Neutral/Watch. Monitor for projects that don't rely solely on token emissions to bootstrap hardware. The hardware-heavy nature of DePin makes it capital intensive and slow to scale compared to software-only crypto.

Watkins explicitly mentions Twitter/X announcing integrations with Solana (e.g., "hashtags," minting NFTs) and the potential for stablecoin payments on platforms like X or WhatsApp. As Web2 giants (Social Media, Fintech) finally integrate crypto rails after the 2025 regulatory clarity, they will choose high-throughput chains that are already leading. Solana is the named beneficiary of these specific Web2 integrations. Long. It benefits from the "inevitability" of stablecoin/payment adoption. Web2 companies might opt to build their own proprietary L2s or blockchains instead of using public chains like Solana.

Watkins notes that wallets which haven't touched Bitcoin for 10-12 years are selling the most they ever have, capping price despite the debasement narrative. This selling is a one-time transfer of wealth from early adopters to new entrants, not a structural flaw in Bitcoin. The macro backdrop (Gold at all-time highs, dollar debasement) remains valid. Once this specific "OG" supply overhang is absorbed, the artificial price cap is removed. Long-term accumulation. The underperformance is flow-driven, not thesis-driven. The selling pressure from vintage wallets continues for another 6-12 months, delaying the breakout.

Watkins highlights that Hyperliquid has seen "extraordinary" growth, doing billion-dollar volume days in equity and commodity perpetuals. There is clear Product-Market Fit (PMF) for trading real-world assets (stocks, commodities) with leverage directly on-chain. Unlike other sectors struggling for utility, users actively want this *now*. This sector is capturing volume from traditional brokers and centralized exchanges. High conviction Long. This is one of the few sectors with actual growing revenue and user demand in the current market. Regulatory crackdowns on offering unregistered derivatives/equities on-chain.