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20:07
Aug 22
Aug 22
U.S. Long-End Treasuries
UUP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Term premium driven by debt supply.
The rise in long-end US yields is mostly a term premium story: investors are demanding extra compensation to hold US debt because there is more debt supply and buyers are more reluctant. Real-rate increases have been driven by term premium, not inflation breakevens, which points to continued upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields.
U.S. Long-End Treasuries SHORT
Dollar weak despite rising real rates.
The unusual current setup is that US real rates are rising while the dollar is weakening. Normally higher real rates attract inflows into dollar assets and lift the dollar; that is not happening, which suggests unfavourable investor appetite for dollar assets and argues for watching or avoiding the dollar.
UUP AVOID
HIGH
16:05
Aug 22
Aug 22
U.S. Long-End Treasuries
AI data center debt
Tech corporate bonds
Chinese AI/technology
U.S. beef/cattle market
▾
HIGH
Buybacks won't lower long-term Treasury yields.
Treasury Secretary Bessent's bond-market intervention is politically motivated and too small to move the $30 trillion Treasury market. The administration's tariffs, geopolitical entanglements, and repeated gimmicks are adding upward pressure on inflation and long-end yields; without these interventions, inflation would likely be in the low 2s and long-end Treasury yields substantially lower.
U.S. Long-End Treasuries SHORT
AI data-center debt is not Treasury-safe.
AI/data-center-related tech bonds are not as safe as U.S. Treasuries despite being marketed that way. They are corporate issuance, complex, and subject to technological disruption; Moore's Law suggests data-center hardware will be far less demanding in 10-15 years, likely causing overbuild and misallocation similar to fiber after the dot-com crisis.
AI data center debt AVOID
Tech corporate bonds AVOID
Chinese AI models rapidly close US gap.
The U.S. lead in AI is rapidly narrowing: the gap between top U.S. and Chinese models has shrunk from over a year to a few months, Chinese model usage on a major AI access platform has surpassed U.S. models, and Chinese models are increasingly capable, cheaper, and open-weight, driving adoption even by U.S. companies.
Chinese AI/technology LONG
Beef imports likely pressure US cattle prices.
The Trump administration's plan to allow more tariff-free beef imports and sell them 25% below market prices is designed to lower beef prices ahead of the midterms, but it undermines U.S. cattle ranchers just as they are seeing rare profits, creating downside risk for domestic beef and cattle prices.
U.S. beef/cattle market SHORT
HIGH
14:21
Aug 22
Aug 22
IRAN 1ST
Iranian rial
USO
▾
HIGH
Iran economy strained by sanctions pressure.
US economic pressure on Iran has already crashed the Iranian currency, inflation is around 66%, unemployment has risen since the start of the year, and the UAE is cutting trade ties; further sanctions tightening should deepen economic strain, making broad Iranian exposure unattractive even without a predicted regime collapse.
IRAN AVOID
Iranian rial AVOID
Strait of Hormuz bypass reduces Iran leverage.
The US and regional players are working to bypass the Strait of Hormuz to neutralize Iran's leverage, a shift that could reduce the strategic oil chokepoint risk and alter the regional energy security calculus.
USO WATCH
HIGH
14:00
Aug 22
Aug 22
AI
XLE 1ST
S&P 493
▾
HIGH
AI creates dynamic economy, more jobs.
AI is making it easier to start businesses; weekly Census data show U.S. business formation at the highest level ever, which Slok says is creating a more dynamic economy. He argues AI is a 'miracle drug' likely to create both higher productivity and higher employment, making him very optimistic on AI's effects on the U.S. and global economy.
AI LONG
XLE LONG
S&P 493 margins should improve next.
Enterprises are investing heavily in AI, but margins for the S&P 493, meaning the S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent Seven, have not yet risen. Slok expects margin improvements over the next several quarters and says industries that can implement and adopt AI will become the next winners as the technology develops.
S&P 493 LONG
HIGH
13:52
Aug 22
Aug 22
American whiskey
▾
HIGH
Canada access loss pressures American whiskey
Canada’s provincial removal of American whiskey from shelves cut US spirits exports to Canada by roughly 70% year-over-year, and restoring market access is only the first challenge; even if American whiskey returns to shelves, producers must rebuild demand because many Canadian consumers have shifted to local products and remain frustrated with the US.
American whiskey WATCH
HIGH
13:10
Aug 22
Aug 22
TLT
AI Data Center Bonds
▾
HIGH
Treasury can't control long-term bond yields
Treasury buybacks and Bessent's bond-market intervention may provide short-term relief, but they cannot override the forces driving long-term Treasury yields. Persistent sticky inflation from pandemic fiscal stimulus, supply-chain disruptions, tariff uncertainty, energy prices, and large fiscal deficits remain problems. The bond market is a roughly $100 trillion global market, and the market, not the Fed or Treasury, sets long-term bond yields, so any one country has limited ability to support long-term bond prices over the long haul.
TLT AVOID
AI data center bonds aren't Treasuries
AI data center bonds are not as safe as US Treasuries. They are corporate issuance with complex structures and are heavily exposed to technological disruption. Moore's law keeps shrinking chips and hardware requirements, so today's massive data centers backed by 10-, 20-, and 30-year financing may be overbuilt. Like fiber-optic dark cable after the dot-com bust, data storage capacity could become cheaper and less demanding, making these bonds riskier than perceived.
AI Data Center Bonds AVOID
HIGH
12:16
Aug 22
Aug 22
Chinese AI models
▾
HIGH
Chinese AI models gain share on price.
Chinese AI models are narrowing the performance gap with US models and are winning on price and usage. Usage of Chinese models reached over 60% on OpenRouter in July and surpassed US models for the first time the month before. Most top Chinese models are open-weight, meaning they can be downloaded, modified, and deployed locally without sending data to China. In a website-building test, China's Kimi K3 produced a similar site for about a quarter of the roughly $50 charged by a leading Anthropic model, and could go below $5 with design and speed trade-offs. That capable-enough, low-price, open-weight combination is becoming irresistible for companies, including Airbnb, DoorDash, and Coinbase.
Chinese AI models LONG
HIGH
12:00
Aug 22
Aug 22
SKYY
FXI
AI data center and energy buildout
US AI GPU capacity
▾
HIGH
Hyperscalers control AI capacity; others squeezed.
Because data centers, semiconductors and nuclear energy capacity take years to build, the large hyperscalers making near-term bets will lock up scarce AI infrastructure and control the market, while smaller competitors and would-be participants are likely to be squeezed out.
SKYY LONG
Chinese open-source AI takes global share.
Chinese open-source AI models such as DeepSeek are a lower-cost alternative that needs less GPU capacity than US proprietary models; China can deploy them at massive scale and low cost to capture the roughly 75% of the global market outside the US, taking share from US AI models and constraining returns on US GPU-intensive AI capacity.
FXI LONG
US AI GPU capacity AVOID
AI infrastructure buildout vulnerable to adoption slowdown.
The announced AI infrastructure buildout is largely MOUs and commitments that may be variable; even a modest slowdown in AI adoption would stretch the assumed adoption curve and cause data center and energy capacity buildout to be delayed or cut, leaving developers and bondholders to absorb shortages and forcing a revision of today's aggressive AI infrastructure plans.
AI data center and energy buildout WATCH
HIGH
11:54
Aug 22
Aug 22
US long-end Treasury yields
▾
HIGH
Intervention won't tame long-end Treasury yields.
The Treasury Secretary's planned bond-market intervention is very small relative to the $30 trillion-plus Treasury market and is a political attempt to appear responsive before the midterms. The administration's prior backdoor measures have only bought temporary relief and have not fixed the long-end yield problem, so the intervention is unlikely to tame long-end Treasury yields.
US long-end Treasury yields LONG
HIGH
08:30
Aug 22
Aug 22
Pokémon cards
▾
MED
Pokémon card vending machines are performing well
Micah Stanley is bullish on Pokémon cards as a vending product, citing $300,000 worth of Pokémon card inventory and Pokémon vending machines placed in gas stations around Cleveland, with one machine doing about $1,000 in its first two weeks, which he calls really good.
Pokémon cards LONG
MED
02:48
Aug 22
Aug 22
DKNG 1ST
FanDuel 1ST
MGM Grand
FOXA 1ST
▾
MED
Sports betting faces integrity, addiction blowback.
Sports betting has become ubiquitous and carries pernicious effects, including creating a new generation of gambling addicts. Steinberg also warns it is an existential threat to sports integrity: one player sharing inside information or shaping performance could make fans question whether games are fixed, which would undermine the health and perceived validity of sports betting.
DKNG AVOID
FanDuel AVOID
MGM Grand AVOID
Fox benefits from Sunday NFL audience.
NFL television revenue has exploded from about $2 million per team in 1975 to roughly $300 million per team today. Steinberg argues live NFL programming works as a loss leader for networks, specifically citing Fox using Sunday NFL broadcasts to promote its Monday-to-Friday programming and build the network's bottom line.
FOXA LONG
MED
01:08
Aug 22
Aug 22
September Fed Funds Futures
▾
HIGH
Fade September Fed rate hike expectations
The CME FedWatch probability of a September Fed rate hike has fallen from nearly 60% to about 30% because the August employment report showed clear labor-market weakness and core CPI at 2.5% indicated inflation is mostly energy-driven rather than broad-based. The combination gives the Fed reason to stand pat in September, so the near-term rates setup is to fade a September hike, though headline CPI at 3.4% and oil volatility leave the broader inflation path unresolved.
September Fed Funds Futures WATCH
HIGH
00:42
Aug 22
Aug 22
SOYB 1ST
CORN
▾
HIGH
Tight soybean stocks; El Niño threatens supplies.
Despite record Brazilian soybean harvests and a 6.6% increase in US soybean acres, global soybean stocks are still projected to decline by nearly 1 million tons because rising crush capacity tied to biofuel initiatives is boosting demand. A potentially historic El Niño threatens the next South American crop, which could tighten global soybean supplies further.
SOYB LONG
Lower corn production tightens global corn stocks.
USDA estimates US corn production will be 1 billion bushels less than last year due to lower harvested acres and yield, and combined with crop losses in other exporting countries, global corn production is estimated to fall by 31 million tons, reducing global corn stocks by 8% year-over-year. A potentially historic El Niño adds further supply risk for the next South American crop.
CORN LONG
HIGH
23:00
Aug 21
Aug 21
AI 1ST
SKYY 1ST
FXI 1ST
S&P 493
U.S. manufacturing
▾
HIGH
AI is productivity and employment miracle
AI is creating a more dynamic US economy with record business formation and competitive pressure, and he believes AI will act as a miracle drug that raises both productivity and employment.
AI LONG
Hyperscalers control AI market; smaller rivals squeezed
Large hyperscalers are uniquely positioned to make the big near-term AI bets, secure data center capacity and energy, and will likely control the market, while smaller competitors trying to participate are likely to be squeezed out.
SKYY LONG
China's open-source AI scales globally
China's cheaper open-source AI models, such as DeepSeek, require less GPU capacity and can be scaled at low cost and high quality to capture the large international market outside the US, repeating its industrial playbook.
FXI LONG
S&P 493 margins improve with AI
Margins for the S&P 493 have not yet risen from AI investment, but he expects margin improvements over the next several quarters and sees industries that implement and adopt AI as the next winners.
S&P 493 LONG
Permanent auto/steel tariffs hurt North American manufacturing
Accepting permanent tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, cars and car parts is self-mutilating for both Canada and the US because these inputs raise costs for US manufacturers and will especially hurt Detroit's integrated North American auto production.
U.S. manufacturing AVOID
CARZ AVOID
Walmart deploys AI with employee involvement
Walmart is cited as a company handling AI implementation well by involving employees at every stage and empowering them to use AI to improve their jobs, supporting workforce motivation and successful adoption.
WMT LONG
AI infrastructure investors may face reset
AI infrastructure buildout may follow the historical pattern of an installation cycle followed by a correction that resets the cost base, which is good for capitalism but not necessarily good for investors who invested in the buildout.
AI infrastructure buildout AVOID
HIGH
23:00
Aug 21
Aug 21
EWC 1ST
Canadian steel
Canadian aluminum
Canadian automobiles
BNO
▾
HIGH
Trade deal reduces Canadian tariff risk.
A U.S.-Canada trade deal would avoid the threatened 50% tariffs and reduce tariffs on key Canadian export sectors such as steel, automobiles and aluminum; that progress improves predictability and supports Canada as an investable destination.
EWC LONG
Canadian steel LONG
Canadian aluminum LONG
Canadian automobiles LONG
Brent sideways; gasoline and diesel rise.
Brent crude in the $90s reflects a delicate balancing act between both sides in the Iran conflict; until a diplomatic breakthrough or new off-ramp, Brent is likely to trade sideways, while gasoline and diesel remain in short supply and continue to tick higher.
BNO WATCH
UGA LONG
DIESEL LONG
Indonesia offers growing middle-class market.
Canada is diversifying trade and investment toward Asia; Indonesia is the fourth most populous country, has a growing economy and a rising middle class, making it an attractive market for Canadian businesses.
EIDO LONG
Maximum pressure adds energy risk premium.
If the U.S. pursues maximum economic pressure on Iran, including pressuring China, energy prices would probably move higher in the short term because Iran can retaliate against shipping and critical oil and gas infrastructure, forcing a risk premium into prices.
WTI LONG
HIGH
21:57
Aug 21
Aug 21
Equities
TLT FLIP
LQD
QUAL 1ST
XLK 1ST
▾
HIGH
Earnings justify buying equity dips.
Earnings are running around 35% year-over-year with no sign the cycle is ending, and equities act as an inflation hedge through corporate pricing power, so he stays overweight equities and buys dips despite higher bond yields.
Equities LONG
Underweight credit and fixed income.
Credit spreads are near all-time lows across credit sectors while the debasement trade and rising bond yields make fixed income unattractive, supporting underweight credit and fixed income versus equities.
TLT AVOID
LQD AVOID
Prefer high-margin quality over cyclicals.
As the small/mid/value cyclical outperformance moves into the rearview, he prefers high-margin quality stocks, especially tech and communication services paired with consumer staples and utilities, arguing yields have peaked.
QUAL LONG
XLK LONG
XLC LONG
XLP LONG
XLU LONG
Nvidia attractive on AI growth.
Nvidia remains his largest position because earnings growth plus out-year valuation still looks attractive, AI spending growth is durable, and Nvidia is returning more capital to shareholders via a significant dividend increase.
NVDA LONG
Software names resilient despite AI fears.
Software and SaaS names have undergone multiple contraction but have resilient business models, and Salesforce is adjusting to AI and should continue to grow, so he has been nibbling at software despite uncertainty.
CRM LONG
Software/SaaS LONG
International equities benefit from dollar depreciation.
International markets have outperformed US equities for a second consecutive year, and continued dollar depreciation should provide tailwinds, suggesting the trend of US equity dominance is near an end.
International equities ex-US LONG
Bitcoin rally driven by money supply.
Bitcoin's rally was triggered by Fed Treasury buybacks and money supply growth, with a weaker dollar also supportive, but he says it is too early to tell where it is actually headed and would not get too excited.
BTC WATCH
Robinhood diversified crypto hedge.
Robinhood is a better bet than a pure crypto buying spree because it is well diversified, gets less than 20% of revenue from crypto, is a share gainer expanding in Europe and Asia, and has upside to his price target.
HOOD LONG
MicroStrategy benefits from crypto momentum.
Strategy is liked as a pure-play crypto beneficiary and carries an Outperform rating, supported by continued crypto momentum if dollar weakness persists.
STRATEGY LONG
Go long diesel as escalation hedge.
China stabilizes crude but not products, and refining supply constraints from Middle East and Russia outages argue for using long diesel as the best hedge against further Iran-related escalation.
DIESEL LONG
Allocate to gold amid debasement.
Gold is Goldman's preferred commodity because central bank buying is structurally higher, no Fed hikes should revive ETF demand, and gold provides insurance against macro policy and fiscal tail risks; year-end price target has upside risk.
GLD LONG
Health care and financials broaden market.
The market is broadening beyond AI into health care and financials with attractive opportunities in health care equipment and financial services; he specifically likes Goldman Sachs, American Express, and Stryker on multiple contraction and rising estimates.
GS LONG
AXP LONG
SYK LONG
AI supercycle drives semiconductor growth.
The semiconductor industry is seeing historic growth from the generative AI supercycle, with no indication that society, companies, or governments will back off increasing AI usage and AI compute investment.
SMH LONG
Power becomes next AI bottleneck.
The AI supply chain bottleneck is moving from chips to power, requiring at least 150 gigawatts of new capacity and roughly $5 trillion of capex, making power suppliers and power infrastructure a major investment theme.
Power infrastructure LONG
POWL LONG
HIGH
21:28
Aug 21
Aug 21
SPY
Short-to-intermediate duration bonds
TLT 1ST
MAGS
RSP
▾
HIGH
Young investors favor stocks over housing.
Gen Z and younger millennials increasingly do not view housing as a wealth generator because housing is frozen and out of reach; they are shifting money into the stock market instead of saving for large down payments. This creates a different, ongoing source of demand for equities.
SPY LONG
Favor short-to-intermediate bonds over long end.
Schwab's guidance is that the bond backdrop is favorable from a coupon and yield perspective, but not necessarily out to the long end or the 10-year; the preferred exposure is right below duration, meaning short-to-intermediate duration bonds.
Short-to-intermediate duration bonds LONG
TLT AVOID
Favor equal-weight S&P and small caps.
The market is in a multi-year rotation and breadth phase rather than narrow mega-cap leadership. The largest Mag 7 companies are no longer automatically the best performers; leadership is broadening across the S&P 500, with more than 70% of companies above their 200-day moving average, and small caps are the poster child. Unlike late 2021, breadth is improving, so this rotation is not signaling a bear market.
MAGS AVOID
RSP LONG
IWM LONG
HIGH
21:28
Aug 21
Aug 21
TLT
GLD
short-term fixed income
USD
AIQ
▾
HIGH
Avoid long bonds; favor cash, gold
She has been nervous about longer-term bonds because fiscal policies are increasing deficits, growth and inflation, likely keeping rates higher, and this week's Treasury-driven rate volatility makes the yield pickup on long bonds not worth the risk. She prefers cash or short-term fixed income and gold for diversification.
TLT AVOID
GLD LONG
short-term fixed income LONG
Dollar rangebound; not falling off cliff
She is in the range camp on the US dollar and does not expect a cliff decline; a weaker dollar would push up US inflation and tighten financial conditions at the margin, potentially making the Fed more likely to hike, but she is not positioning for a dollar collapse.
USD WATCH
Watch AI stocks and corporate bonds
She warns that a catalyst pulling down sentiment toward artificial intelligence could hit AI stocks and spill into AI-linked debt and the global corporate bond market, making AI and corporate credit an important systemic risk to monitor for a disorderly fiscal adjustment.
AIQ WATCH
Global corporate bonds WATCH
HIGH
21:27
Aug 21
Aug 21
XLY 1ST
Hobby/Leisure Retailers
▾
MED
Hobby spending is outpacing discretionary purchases.
Hobby spending has grown year-over-year every month since April 2025 and is outpacing overall discretionary purchases, spanning all generations. Consumers are making room in budgets by cutting elsewhere or drawing down savings, and hobby-focused retailers like Michaels report larger purchases, supporting a bullish view on hobby/leisure-related consumer discretionary spending.
XLY LONG
Hobby/Leisure Retailers LONG
MED
21:25
Aug 21
Aug 21
30-Year US Treasury Bond
MAGS
▾
MED
Higher yields squeeze borrowers, reward savers.
The Treasury market has shifted from low-drama to a changing game board: borrowers will face more expensive money, while those with cash have more attractive places to deploy it; even if yields pull back, the market is entering a longer period of uncertainty.
30-Year US Treasury Bond WATCH
Texas election could extend Magnificent Seven cycle.
Citing BofA's Michael Hartnett, a pro-data-center Greg Abbott victory in Texas could extend the life of the current AI/data-center-driven cycle and the longer-lasting bubble in the Magnificent Seven.
MAGS WATCH
MED
21:00
Aug 21
Aug 21
DIESEL 1ST
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Energy and diesel costs rising on tight supply.
Diane Swonk argues that energy prices are rebounding with diesel costs picking up dramatically. She sees refinery capacity constraints and slowing Canadian imports from scheduled maintenance adding to supply tightness, which will make this a tough inflation period for the Federal Reserve.
DIESEL LONG
XLE LONG
HIGH
20:56
Aug 21
Aug 21
GLD 1ST
SPY
ITG Communications
GDX 1ST
NEM 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold rises despite Treasury yield moves.
Gold is moving higher again even as Treasury yields move, and the failure of rate moves to reverse gold suggests investors are using gold as a different-angle hedge that may be anticipating further market movement.
GLD LONG
S&P 500 vulnerable if earnings growth slows.
S&P 500 earnings growth is the best since 1998 outside recession recovery, signaling that the market has been underestimating the power of the AI boom. Earnings are broadening beyond technology and should continue to power stocks higher, supporting profit momentum even as comparisons get tougher.
SPY WATCH
ITG is fiber-optic picks-and-shovels AI infrastructure.
ITG is a digital infrastructure services company building fiber-optic networks for communications providers and data centers, making it effectively the picks and shovels of the AI boom. The company benefits from a multiyear fiber upgrade cycle plus AI data center connectivity, and even if total AI data center forecasts are cut by 40-50%, there would still be years of investment runway for its growth.
ITG Communications LONG
Gold miners supercharge gold's rally.
Gold's rally is spilling over into gold mining stocks, which offer a supercharged way to bet on the metal because miners have sturdy fundamentals, better margins at higher gold prices, and extended runway. Newmont is up 47% since July lows, triple the rally in gold.
GDX LONG
NEM LONG
Ross Stores guidance shows resilient consumer.
Ross Stores raised its full-year profit forecast and reported strong second-quarter sales growth supported by new customers and higher engagement from existing customers. Third-quarter comparable sales guidance of 6-7% is double analyst expectations, indicating resilient US consumer spending despite Walmart's more cautious signals.
ROST LONG
Moderna cancer vaccine news fuels upside.
Moderna is extending gains to all-time highs after positive personalized cancer vaccine trial news for melanoma, giving mRNA technology a second act after COVID. Analysts are raising price targets, including Goldman Sachs boosting its target to $160, though earnings must still deliver on elevated expectations.
MRNA LONG
HIGH
20:34
Aug 21
Aug 21
AIQ
US Interest Rates
AI debt
Global corporate bonds
French sovereign debt
▾
MED
AI shock may hit stocks and credit.
An AI-driven sentiment shock could spread beyond AI stocks, because AI is now embedded in AI debt and the global corporate bond market. She frames this as a catalyst that could force US austerity by hitting risk assets broadly.
AIQ WATCH
AI debt WATCH
Global corporate bonds WATCH
Sticky inflation may force Fed hikes.
Sticky inflation could force the Federal Reserve to raise rates more than expected, creating another catalyst for an ugly market-driven US austerity event.
US Interest Rates WATCH
France debt crisis may hit US.
A French debt crisis could create contagion into US markets even though US investors think in dollars, making French sovereign debt stress a key overseas risk to monitor.
French sovereign debt WATCH
MED
20:29
Aug 21
Aug 21
30-year Treasury bond
▾
MED
Thirty-year bond yields face extended uncertainty.
David Gura argues that the sudden mainstream alarm over the 30-year Treasury yield is not necessarily warranted because the yield has already been at 2007 levels for weeks, but the bond market's new prominence signals a longer period of uncertainty for investors even if yields dip near term.
30-year Treasury bond WATCH
MED
20:24
Aug 21
Aug 21
MU 1ST
SAM 1ST
GLD 1ST
BTC 1ST
TLT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Smart money exiting memory and chips.
The smart money is moving on from the memory trade; the fact that Micron and chip names gave up much of their recent bounce in just a couple of days shows weak hands, with momentum coming out of the semiconductor trade and Nvidia lower despite no major fundamental news.
MU AVOID
NVDA AVOID
CFO exit threatens margin recovery.
Boston Beer shares fell after CFO Diego Reynoso's announced departure; Citi called his exit a meaningful loss because of his key role in the company's margin recovery program, making the management change a negative for the stock.
SAM AVOID
Debasement trade favors hard assets, equities.
Signs of a debasement trade are everywhere, with capital aggressively rotating out of bonds and into hard assets and structural growth equities; gold and bitcoin are higher as investors seek hedges and safety outside the bond market.
GLD LONG
BTC LONG
TLT AVOID
Structural Growth Equities LONG
Cancer vaccine data boosts Moderna, Merck.
Moderna's surge is driven by late-stage data showing its personalized cancer vaccine developed with Merck reduced melanoma recurrence, raising expectations for treating the deadliest form of skin cancer and boosting the broader strategy of using the body's immunity to fight disease. Merck also hit an all-time high on the news.
MRNA LONG
MRK LONG
Raised EPS guidance on strong comps.
Ross Stores boosted its full-year EPS forecast and reported strength throughout the second quarter, with comparable store sales growth supported by both new customers and higher engagement from existing customers.
ROST LONG
Beat and raised annual earnings guidance.
BJ's Wholesale beat second-quarter sales and adjusted EPS expectations, and management raised its annual earnings guidance, showing strong retail execution.
BJ LONG
HIGH
19:59
Aug 21
Aug 21
ROST 1ST
U.S. manufacturing sector
Ground beef
BNO
▾
HIGH
Discount retail wins as consumers trade down
Ross Stores is proving that consumers still seek bargains when money is tight. The discount retailer raised its profit forecast for the second time this year, same-store sales jumped 10%, and the contrast with Walmart's consumer-pressure results supports a trade-down thesis for off-price retail.
ROST LONG
Steel and aluminum tariffs weaken U.S. manufacturing
Permanent U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum hurt U.S. manufacturing because these are inputs into the manufacturing sector. Freeland argues aluminum tariffs are especially self-harming because aluminum is effectively electricity in solid form, so the U.S. is taxing its own manufacturers.
U.S. manufacturing sector AVOID
Tariff-free beef imports lower beef prices
Trump's move to allow tariff-free ground beef imports that must be sold 25% below current market prices is an admission that tariffs raised consumer beef prices. The policy should lower beef prices for consumers but creates a political trade-off by angering U.S. ranchers and agriculture interests.
Ground beef SHORT
Iran blockade keeps oil supply uncertain
The U.S. blockade has severely impacted Iran's oil export earnings, and cutting off the Strait of Hormuz could effectively stop Iranian oil from reaching global markets. However, Bolton also argues the U.S. should help Gulf Arab producers get their oil out through the Strait, creating two-sided supply uncertainty for crude.
BNO WATCH
HIGH
19:53
Aug 21
Aug 21
TLT
Cash and short-term fixed income
Short-duration US bonds
GLD
USD
▾
HIGH
Avoid long bonds, own cash, gold.
Patterson has been cautious on longer-term bonds because fiscal policies are increasing the deficit, growth, and inflation, pushing rates higher; with this week's Treasury volatility, she prefers cash or short-term fixed income and other diversifiers such as gold rather than reaching for long-duration yield.
TLT AVOID
Cash and short-term fixed income LONG
GLD LONG
Favor short-duration bonds over long end.
Schwab's guidance is that the bond backdrop is favorable, but not necessarily out to the long end or the 10-year; he recommends focusing on the area right below duration for coupon and yield without taking long-end interest-rate risk.
Short-duration US bonds LONG
Long-end US Treasuries AVOID
Dollar range-bound, not falling sharply.
Patterson is in the range camp on the US dollar and does not think it is about to fall off a cliff; a weaker dollar would tend to push up US inflation and at the margin could make the Fed more likely to hike, but she is not predicting a sharp decline.
USD WATCH
Young investors shifting to stocks supports equities.
Younger investors, especially Gen Z, no longer see housing as the classic American Dream wealth generator and have shifted a lot to the stock market, creating a source of equity demand that continues unabated.
SPY LONG
Favor small caps, avoid mega-cap concentration.
Gordon argues the market is in a multi-year rotation: the largest mega-cap companies are no longer the best performers and are ceding leadership to previously lagging parts of the market; small caps are the poster child, and with over 70% of S&P 500 companies above their 200-day moving average, breadth supports a rotational market rather than a top-heavy late-2021 setup.
RSP LONG
IWM LONG
MAGS AVOID
HIGH
19:30
Aug 21
Aug 21
Long-end US Treasuries
BNO
SPY
IWM
▾
HIGH
Higher-for-longer rates pressure long-end Treasuries
Higher deficits, sticky inflation, and structurally higher nominal growth are combining to create a higher-for-longer interest rate world, making it very hard to pull down yields especially at the long end.
Long-end US Treasuries SHORT
Oil market hinges on China import rebound
Oil markets face a key swing factor from China, where a collapse in import activity could reverse; the longer the conflict persists, the greater the risk of energy shortages abroad and elevated gasoline and oil prices, with oil-yield correlations near all-time highs.
BNO WATCH
Stock-bond correlation now negative pressures equities
This is not a late-1990s repeat because the factor most correlated with strong performance into the 1990s peak was negative earnings, whereas today's equity market is supported by profitability and broad participation, with more than 70% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day moving average.
SPY WATCH
Small caps participate in broadening market
Market gains are broadening beyond mega-cap AI leadership, with previously dormant areas such as small caps participating, so investors do not need to be singularly focused on mega caps.
IWM LONG
HIGH
19:29
Aug 21
Aug 21
19:11
Aug 21
Aug 21
EWW
REMX
Mexican autos
SLX
▾
MED
Mexico likely seeks similar tariff relief.
Mexico is closely watching the US-Canada negotiations and will likely come quickly to the US after a deal to ask for similar Section 232 tariff relief, especially for autos; a full USMCA extension is less clear because of issues such as transshipment and Chinese investment.
EWW WATCH
Mexican autos WATCH
China's rare earth leverage constrains US.
China has shown it will use rare earths and critical minerals as leverage, which she says helped force the US to pull back from very high Chinese tariffs last year and still constrains the administration despite US domestic and allied efforts; rare earth policy remains a strategic watch.
REMX WATCH
Steel tariff details remain critical.
Steel quota and derivative details are critical to the US-Canada tariff negotiations, and the administration has been very tough about easing steel tariffs partly because it believes there were too many exemptions last time; this makes steel tariff policy a key watch for steel markets.
SLX WATCH
MED
18:22
Aug 21
Aug 21
Detroit automakers
Canadian aluminum sector
US manufacturing sector
Canadian steel sector
Canadian auto and auto parts sector
▾
HIGH
Car tariffs will hurt Detroit automakers
Permanent tariffs on Canadian cars and car parts will particularly hurt Detroit because the US and Canada have built vehicles together for more than a century and the cross-border auto supply chain is deeply integrated.
Detroit automakers AVOID
Canadian steel, aluminum, autos face tariff harm
Permanent tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, cars and car parts are a bad outcome for Canada and are harmful to those sectors, even though Canadians support their prime minister during the trade dispute.
Canadian aluminum sector AVOID
Canadian steel sector AVOID
Canadian auto and auto parts sector AVOID
Tariffs on Canadian inputs weaken US manufacturing
Permanent US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum make US manufacturers weaker by raising input costs; 2018 tariff studies show net harm to US manufacturing, and aluminum tariffs are especially self-harming because aluminum is effectively electricity in solid form.
US manufacturing sector AVOID
HIGH
18:09
Aug 21
Aug 21
ANTHROPIC 1ST
STRIPE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Still buying Anthropic; IPO should reward.
Anjney Midha remains heavily invested in Anthropic, says he did not sell and has tripled down or quadrupled down since the seed round, making it AMP's largest portfolio position. He argues Anthropic has a simple, predictable business: each dollar of compute becomes about ten dollars of intelligence via scaling laws, and public markets will reward that richly when Anthropic goes public.
ANTHROPIC LONG
Stripe buying OpenRouter for AI security.
Anjney Midha argues Stripe's acquisition of OpenRouter is fundamentally a security acquisition, not a billing or routing expansion. OpenRouter has a cross-model behavioral dataset on AI agent transactions that helps identify when agents go rogue, and Stripe is really a payments fraud and internet defense company, making this a strategic bet on securing the agentic internet.
STRIPE LONG
HIGH
18:09
Aug 21
Aug 21
WTI
LCTD
▾
MED
US sanctions may disrupt Iranian crude flows
The US Treasury is expected to unveil tangible economic pressure on Iran, potentially including targeted actions against those facilitating Iran's oil trade. China buys about 90% of Iran's petroleum exports, and previous Chinese blocking orders raise compliance questions, creating an event-driven risk of disrupted Iranian crude flows.
WTI WATCH
Tariff-free beef imports pressure cattle prices
The White House announced it will allow 300,000 metric tons of ground beef to be imported without a tariff and sold at 25% below current market rates to lower beef prices. Beef volumes were already down 0.3% year over year and consumers are buying more chicken, though previous beef-related measures have not brought prices down.
LCTD WATCH
MED
17:13
Aug 21
Aug 21
CASH 1ST
short-term fixed income
Non-US bond funds
GLD 1ST
TLT FLIP
▾
HIGH
Prefer cash, short-duration assets, gold.
The surprise this week is not just high yields but volatility in rates driven by Treasury supply/demand; for retail investors, she would prefer cash or short-term fixed income and diversified assets like gold rather than taking duration risk.
CASH LONG
short-term fixed income LONG
GLD LONG
Prefer non-US bonds over US.
The US bond market increasingly behaves like a developing market with elevated volatility; if she wanted that kind of volatility she would invest in another country's funds rather than the US, implying a preference for non-US bond funds over US bonds.
Non-US bond funds LONG
Long-term Treasury risk not worth yield.
Long-term bonds such as TLT have produced yield-up/price-down losses; the extra yield from longer-term bonds is not worth the duration risk right now, so she prefers even shorter-duration holdings like money markets for retirement and wealth management.
TLT AVOID
Emerging markets outperform US on fundamentals.
Emerging market stocks and bonds have outperformed the US this year, partly on fundamentals; Korea and Taiwan are benefiting from AI demand and commodity-exporting countries may be helped by commodity exports.
EWY LONG
EEM LONG
EWT LONG
Dollar range-bound, not cliff-diving.
A weaker dollar would push up US inflation and tighten financial conditions, potentially making the Federal Reserve more likely to raise rates, but she is in the range camp and does not think the dollar is about to fall off a cliff.
USD WATCH
HIGH
16:25
Aug 21
Aug 21
REMX
CRML 1ST
▾
HIGH
US processing bottleneck keeps supply tight.
The US is still years away from breaking China's grip on key rare-earth metals because processing capacity, not mining, is the biggest hurdle. Western strategic reserves of gallium, terbium and hafnium could dwindle before new mines like Critical Metals' enter production, keeping the rare-earth supply setup tight and China-dependent.
REMX WATCH
Greenland rare earth mine on track.
The Greenland rare earth mine is on track for 2029 production despite analyst downgrades. The project has favorable logistics, with pits 250 meters from a fjord so no rail or road is needed, manageable Southern Greenland climate, strong local and Greenland government support, and a cruise ship to house workers. The Tambriz asset is described as the world's largest heavy rare-earth deposit, needed by US defense and tech buyers, and the company has adequate post-merger funding to avoid near-term cash pressure.
CRML LONG
HIGH
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