Could El Niño Spark a Global Grain Supply Crunch? | Presented by CME Group
Спикеры
Narrator
— Narrator
The video argues that global soybean and corn supply-demand balances are tightening. Despite record Brazilian soybean production and a jump in US soybean acres, biofuel-driven crush demand is drawing down global soybean stocks. For corn, lower US production and crop losses elsewhere cut global production by 31 million tons, shrinking stocks 8% year-over-year. A potentially historic El Niño adds upside risk to grain prices by threatening the next South American crop.
- Global grain output faces headwinds from El Niño impacts in Southeast Asia.
- Brazil posted back-to-back record soybean harvests, but soybean expansion has stalled.
- US soybean acreage rose 6.6% year-over-year.
- Global soybean stocks are still projected to decline nearly 1 million tons due to biofuel crush demand.
- USDA estimates US corn production down 1 billion bushels from the prior year.
- Global corn production is estimated down 31 million tons, reducing global stocks by 8% year-over-year.
- A potentially historic El Niño threatens the next South American crop and could tighten supplies further.
Идеи
Tight soybean stocks; El Niño threatens supplies.
Despite record Brazilian soybean harvests and a 6.6% increase in US soybean acres, global soybean stocks are still projected to decline by nearly 1 million tons because rising crush capacity tied to biofuel initiatives is boosting demand. A potentially historic El Niño threatens the next South American crop, which could tighten global soybean supplies further.
Lower corn production tightens global corn stocks.
USDA estimates US corn production will be 1 billion bushels less than last year due to lower harvested acres and yield, and combined with crop losses in other exporting countries, global corn production is estimated to fall by 31 million tons, reducing global corn stocks by 8% year-over-year. A potentially historic El Niño adds further supply risk for the next South American crop.
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