All Sources✓
YouTube✓
Twitter✓
Reddit✓
Substack✓
Insider✓
News✓
Loading...
0 selected
All directions✓
▲ Long✓
▼ Short✓
◦ Others✓
Any score✓
LOW+✓
MED+✓
HIGH✓
04:16
Apr 08
Apr 08
WTI
GOLD
SPY
INTC
STRIPE
▾
The speaker states a 90% chance the Strait of Hormuz situation resolves within weeks, leading to a sharp mean reversion in oil prices, and a 10% chance of prolonged crisis/stagflation. Commodities are mean-reverting, and high prices solve high prices. Political will for a prolonged conflict is low, and an off-ramp will be found. Saudi Arabia has signaled it will max production post-conflict. The high probability scenario is for a sharp oil price decline. The extreme volatility (~$6.50 daily move) and risk of being stopped out make it an unattractive, high-risk trade despite the bearish view. The 10% stagflation scenario where the Strait remains closed, causing oil to spike much higher.
WTI AVOID
The speaker explicitly states he wants to be "as deep in gold as possible" in a scenario where the Fed must cut due to poor employment/manufacturing data but inflation remains high from oil. In a stagflationary scenario (high inflation, muted growth), gold could rally massively as a hedge against dollar pressure and inflation. Gold is a conditional hedge in the portfolio, weighted for a lower-probability outcome. It is "watched" based on incoming employment and inflation data. Gold is behaving as a "risk-on" asset, not a safe-haven; central banks are currently sellers, not buyers, capping its upside in the crisis.
GOLD WATCH
The speaker states he is "dip buying" SPY right now, viewing it as a better-hedged version of MAG7 with less volatility. The core view is that the Iran conflict is transient. If it resolves, the bull market resumes. SPY provides broad exposure to that outcome, specifically the expected rip in tech, with lower single-stock risk. SPY is a preferred vehicle to express the high-probability view that the geopolitical overhang passes and markets rally. A prolonged oil crisis leading to stagflation, which would negatively impact equities.
SPY LONG
The speaker mentions he has "been banging the drum on Intel for a long time" and notes it has "performed extremely well off the lows." Intel is cited as an example of a way to gain exposure to the "mega-trend" of increased spending on compute/AI. It is presented as a long-term holding that can be bought during short-term market distractions like the Iran war. Intel is a long-term buy as a discounted play on the compute/AI spending trend. Company-specific execution risk within the competitive semiconductor industry.
INTC LONG
The speaker argues Stripe is "better positioned to capture" the value from on-chain transactions than "pretty much anybody else" and is a "wave you can kind of ride now" in secondary markets. The mega-trend is the growth of efficient, API-based, and ultimately on-chain payments. Stripe owns a dominant share of the current API-based payment stack for commerce and is actively integrating crypto/stablecoin infrastructure (Tempo, Bridge). Stripe is a long-term investment to gain exposure to the convergence of traditional e-commerce payments and crypto/stablecoin rails. Valuation risk in private secondary markets; execution risk in integrating new payment technologies.
STRIPE LONG
The speaker states crypto has been "beaten down," "nobody is paying attention," and this provides opportunity. He notes resilience (BTC not dropping on war news, ETH/SOL up) and asks, "who's left to sell?" The market's short-term focus on geopolitics has created capital allocation away from long-term trends like crypto. The asset class is showing signs of price exhaustion to the downside (failure to sell off on bad news), indicating a potential bottom. The setup is becoming attractive for a broad resurgence in crypto. It is "watched" for a potential entry point as weakness appears to be ending. Further geopolitical or regulatory shocks could still trigger selling.
BTC WATCH
17:30
Apr 07
Apr 07
WTI
SPY
STRIPE
GOLD
BTC
▾
The speaker stated that historically, fading oil price spikes during conflicts has been the correct trade (e.g., Ukraine, Iran-Israel 2024). However, he notes this event is different due to force majeure clauses crippling the physical trading community's ability to act as a volatility dampener. Physical traders are being stopped out of hedges, amplifying volatility. The extreme daily moves (~6x normal) mean the market can "remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Therefore, direct short positioning in oil futures is excessively risky and should be avoided, despite the fundamental belief that the crisis is transient. The Strait of Hormuz remains shut for a prolonged period, invalidating the mean-reversion thesis and leading to sustained high prices.
WTI AVOID
The speaker stated he is "dip buying" SPY, viewing it as a better-hedged, less volatile version of the Magnificent 7. His core macro view is a 90% probability that the Iran conflict resolves quickly, oil prices collapse, and risk assets rally. SPY provides broad exposure to this anticipated market rebound. The current market downturn caused by war fears is a transient buying opportunity for a core equity holding. The conflict escalates into a prolonged oil supply crisis, causing stagflation and broader market decline.
SPY LONG
The speaker identified Stripe as a prime way to gain exposure to the mega-trend of stablecoin/on-chain payments, comparing its potential to Amazon's role in the early growth of e-commerce. He argues Stripe owns a dominant share of the API-based payment space (the "efficient" segment), which is poised to grow significantly as more commerce moves on-chain. Stripe has already made key crypto acquisitions (Tempo, Bridge). Stripe is uniquely positioned to capture the value from the convergence of traditional and on-chain payments, making it a compelling long-term investment available on secondary markets. The adoption of stablecoins for mainstream commerce is slower than anticipated, or competitors capture more of the value stack.
STRIPE WATCH
The speaker stated he is "watching gold and silver for another massive rally" and would want to be "as deep in gold as possible" in a specific scenario: if oil stays high but the Fed is forced to cut rates due to poor employment/manufacturing data. This scenario represents a stagflationary outcome (the lower-probability 10% case). In such an environment, with inflation rising and growth faltering, gold would act as a hedge against dollar pressure and policy confusion. Gold is not a core holding in the base case, but is a conditional hedge worth monitoring closely for a shift in macroeconomic data. The high-probability scenario (war ends, oil crashes, tech rallies) plays out, making gold a poor performer. Or, central banks continue selling gold reserves.
GOLD WATCH
The speaker stated he keeps "coming back to crypto" as an overlooked area, noting Bitcoin's resilience (not falling sharply on war news) and that "nobody is paying attention." Market focus is entirely on short-term oil volatility, capital has fled the asset class, and resilience suggests weak sellers are exhausted. This creates a potential setup for a resurgence once the immediate geopolitical crisis passes. The current distraction provides an opportunity to accumulate exposure to the long-term crypto mega-trend at depressed prices and low attention. A prolonged macro crisis drives a broad-based sell-off in all risk assets, including crypto.
BTC WATCH
12:00
Apr 02
Apr 02
WTI
GOLD
S&P
▾
Kaledora reported that Ostium traders have been net long oil since January as part of a stagflation trade. Her macro thesis outlines a stagflationary environment with higher inflation and geopolitical risks, which historically supports oil prices. LONG on oil due to the alignment of trader positioning with her stagflation view and the implied validity of the thesis. A rapid resolution of geopolitical tensions or a sharp drop in inflation could undermine oil demand and prices.
WTI LONG
She stated that Ostium traders have been net long gold since January, expressing a stagflation view. Gold serves as a traditional hedge against inflation and uncertainty, which are central to her macro outlook. LONG on gold as a safe-haven asset expected to benefit from persistent inflationary and geopolitical pressures. If inflation is quickly tamed or global stability improves, gold's appeal could diminish.
GOLD LONG
She noted that Ostium traders have been lightly short the S&P since January as part of the stagflation trade. Stagflation typically harms equity markets due to rising costs and slowing growth, making short positions logical under her thesis. SHORT on S&P due to the anticipated stagflationary headwinds for equities. If the economy avoids stagflation and enters a robust growth phase, equities could rally strongly.
S&P SHORT
12:01
Mar 26
Mar 26
CANTON
HYPE
BTC
SKY
COIN
▾
Jonah said, "I was kind of bearish Canton, now I'm not." Canton may be a contrarian angle that aligns with the themes of crypto and traditional finance merging, offering a strategic investment opportunity. Long opportunity as the project gains traction in the evolving market landscape. Project-specific risks, lack of adoption, or failure to execute on its vision amidst competition.
CANTON LONG
Avi said, "I think that hyperliquid will eat commodities trading." Hyperliquid's 24/7 trading, crypto-native architecture, and ease of use make it superior for trading commodities, especially with rising stablecoin adoption. Long-term growth as crypto merges with traditional finance and institutions adopt on-chain trading for competitive advantage. Regulatory hurdles, failure to add dated futures, or slow stablecoin adoption by institutions.
HYPE LONG
Avi said, "I'm very bullish on Bitcoin." Bitcoin is a key asset in the crypto supercycle, benefiting from adoption as a store of value and the merging of financial systems. Long-term appreciation as crypto gains mainstream acceptance and serves as a hedge in volatile markets. Market cycles, regulatory changes, or technological disruptions.
BTC LONG
Avi said for betting on stablecoins, "my answers are Sky, which is a crypto project, it's Circle and it's Coinbase." These companies are positioned to capitalize on stablecoin adoption, which is expected to hot-swap the backend of the financial system and generate yield for holders. Long-term investments as stablecoins grow and integrate into traditional finance, capturing value from intermediaries. Regulatory changes, especially around yield generation for stablecoins, and execution risks.
SKY LONG
COIN LONG
Avi said, "very constructive on on Robin Hood" for 24/7 trading. Robinhood can benefit from the trend towards 24/7 trading and crypto integration, appealing to modern traders and leveraging its platform. Long-term growth as trading becomes more continuous and accessible, competing with traditional brokers. Competition from crypto-native platforms like Hyperliquid, regulatory challenges, or market downturns.
HOOD LONG
21:00
Mar 25
Mar 25
BTC
COIN
XLF
▾
Tapiero forecasts Bitcoin's value will reach $20 trillion (approximately $1 million per BTC) over the next decade, a ~10x from current levels, and states he doesn't see it staying below $50,000 for any demonstrable period. He bases this on Bitcoin's role as "digital gold" and the foundational asset of a digital asset ecosystem whose underlying fundamentals (adoption, stablecoin volume, DeFi revenue) have grown massively while its price has been flat for ~5 years. Bitcoin offers asymmetric long-term upside with controlled downside from current levels, representing a core holding for the "digitization of money and value." A catastrophic macroeconomic or regulatory shock that severs the institutional adoption narrative.
BTC LONG
Dan Tapiero explicitly stated "Coinbase trading at seven times [revenue] is not... out of whack, coinbase is way too cheap." He contextualizes this by highlighting Coinbase's successful evolution beyond a retail platform and the broader "Americanization" of crypto driving volume to U.S. regulated exchanges. The stock is significantly undervalued relative to its strategic position and revenue growth trajectory within an institutionalizing market. A prolonged crypto bear market severely depressing trading volumes and revenue.
COIN LONG
Tapiero detailed the "Americanization of crypto," noting U.S. exchange volume share has doubled from 7% to 15% of global volume and could easily reach 50% in 5-10 years due to deep capital markets and regulatory clarity. This trend directly benefits U.S.-domiciled, regulated crypto exchanges and financial infrastructure companies (like Coinbase, Kraken) as volume and value migrate on-chain within the U.S. financial system. U.S.-focused crypto finance companies are primary beneficiaries of a durable, multi-year trend of market share growth and deepening integration. A reversal towards a hostile U.S. regulatory environment or failure of listed companies to execute competitively against offshore rivals.
XLF LONG
03:39
Mar 18
Mar 18
BTC
ETH
HYPE
SKY
HOOD
▾
Avi states he is "bullish on Bitcoin," believes sellers are exhausted, and notes it has broken out of its range above $70k. The geopolitical panic failed to cause a deep or sustained dip, and the technical breakout suggests upward momentum is resuming. LONG because the breakout from a multi-week range indicates a likely rally towards $85k-$90k. A failure to hold the breakout, specifically a fall back below $69k, would invalidate the setup and could lead to new lows.
BTC LONG
Avi says "Ethereum looks phenomenal" and attributes its strength to the stable coin adoption narrative. The growing use and revenue from stable coins (like USDC) directly benefit the Ethereum network where they are primarily issued and used. LONG because Ethereum is the primary platform for stable coin activity, which is seen as a major growth driver for crypto. A breakdown in the ETH/BTC ratio or a failure of stable coin adoption to continue accelerating.
ETH LONG
Jonah states Hyperliquid is "going to eat finance" and praises its product, noting it allows retail to trade assets like oil when traditional futures markets are closed. It provides a unique advantage (24/7 trading) that even large institutions currently lack due to regulatory barriers, creating a period of asymmetric opportunity for retail. LONG because its utility drives user adoption and revenue, and it is seen as a leading indicator for trading activity in related assets. Regulatory changes that allow institutions to trade on the platform, eroding the retail edge, or failure to scale.
HYPE LONG
Avi is "very bullish on Sky" (Maker Dao rebrand), citing its annualized revenue (~$200-420M), growing TVL ($7.5B), and daily buybacks. If stable coin adoption explodes as predicted, Sky is a pure-play way to gain exposure as a decentralized issuer and beneficiary of that growth, unlike the equity of centralized issuers. LONG because it is a fundamental picks-and-shovels play on the stable coin trend with attractive tokenomics (buybacks) and a first-mover advantage. Failure to grow TVL and revenue, or competitive pressure from other stable coin models.
SKY LONG
Avi states that "once Bitcoin gets rip roaring again... Hood can easily go back to $120," from around $77. Robinhood's trading revenue is highly correlated with crypto market activity; a sustained crypto rally would drive increased user engagement and profitability. LONG as a leveraged, high-beta play on a recovery in retail crypto trading momentum. A failure of crypto markets to sustain their rally, or regulatory pressures impacting Robinhood's crypto operations.
HOOD LONG
Jonah identifies Galaxy as a laggard, noting it traded above $40 and is now at ~$23, and questions why it wouldn't rebound with crypto and AI narratives. Its valuation is heavily tied to the success of its Helios AI data center project and broader crypto market performance; a crypto rebound could lift the stock. WATCH because it is a high-risk, reflexive asset that could see a sharp move if sentiment turns, but its fundamental pivot to AI data centers remains unproven. The AI data center initiative fails to monetize effectively, or the company continues to post losses despite a crypto rally.
GLXY WATCH
Avi states that post-Iran fears, assets that got hit by both AI and Iran fears—specifically software companies and large-cap tech—will start doing really well. The dissipation of the dominant geopolitical fear is expected to cause a rotation of risk appetite back into growth-oriented tech and software sectors that sold off previously. LONG because the sector is poised for a rebound as the primary "wall of worry" (Iran/oil) recedes, creating a gap before the next fear emerges. A significant escalation in the Iran conflict or a rapid return of "AI fears" that dampen sentiment.
XLK LONG
Jonah calls Near a "money vacuum" and compares it to a "shitcoin," dismissing its "intents" narrative as irrelevant compared to centralized AI token generation. The thesis is based on hype rather than proven tokenomic demand or revenue; it lacks the fundamental buyback-driven value accrual seen in other assets. AVOID because capital is likely to be lost chasing a narrative that doesn't translate to sustainable value or price appreciation. The "intents" narrative gains unexpected traction and drives substantial, sustained adoption.
NEAR AVOID
Avi states "Curve is totally cooked" and that he doesn't think anyone is using it for stable coin swaps anymore. The utility for decentralized stable coin swapping has been eroded by more user-friendly centralized options (like Hyperliquid) and widespread availability elsewhere. AVOID because the protocol is seen as obsolete in its core function, with little prospect for a revival in usage or fees. A major resurgence in demand for non-custodial stable coin liquidity that exclusively favors Curve's model.
CRV AVOID
17:00
Mar 17
Mar 17
BTC
ETH
HYPE
SKY
HOOD
▾
Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager
Short to medium-term (next few weeks to months).
Avi explicitly stated "I am bullish on Bitcoin" and noted Bitcoin broke out from 66k to 73k, clearing a key resistance level. The breakout indicates exhausted sellers after weeks of failing to make new lows, suggesting bullish momentum and a potential rally. LONG because technical breakout supports upside, with a target of 85-90k, and it's a risk-adjusted bet with a stop below 69k. If Bitcoin fails and trades back below 69k, it could signal a failed breakout and lead to new lows.
BTC LONG
Avi said "Ethereum looks phenomenal" and linked its performance to the stablecoin adoption narrative. Stablecoin growth drives demand for Ethereum as a platform, improving the ETH/BTC ratio and supporting price appreciation. LONG because Ethereum benefits from the stablecoin trade and technical strength, with potential for significant recovery. Stablecoin adoption slows or fails to materialize, or broader crypto sell-off impacts Ethereum.
ETH LONG
Avi stated "we've been hyperlook bulls" and highlighted Hyperliquid's unique ability to trade oil on weekends when traditional markets are closed. This advantage attracts retail traders and could drive adoption, especially with institutional interest pending regulatory whitelisting. LONG because Hyperliquid has a competitive edge in 24/7 trading, potential for growth, and could reach $150-200 in value. Regulatory hurdles delay institutional access, or competitors emerge with similar offerings.
HYPE LONG
Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager
Medium to long-term (next 6-12 months).
Avi said "I'm very bullish on Sky" (rebrand of Maker Dao), noting it's up this year with strong revenue and TVL ($21B). As a decentralized stablecoin issuer, Sky benefits from the stablecoin adoption trend and has critical mass, making it a pure play. LONG because it's a direct bet on stablecoin growth with attractive fundamentals like daily buybacks and low market cap. Stablecoin adoption stalls, or regulatory issues impact decentralized protocols.
SKY LONG
Avi mentioned Robin Hood (HOOD) trading at $77, with a low of $70, and said it "can easily go back to 120" as crypto recovers. Increased trading activity from crypto rallies drives revenue for HOOD, making it a leveraged play on market recovery. LONG because HOOD is poised to rebound with crypto momentum, offering significant upside from current levels. Crypto rally falters, or HOOD faces competitive or regulatory pressures.
HOOD LONG
Jonah Van Bourg
Head of Trading, Cumberland
Long-term, but immediate avoidance due to perceived overvaluation.
Jonah said "do not touch it with a 10-ft pole" and compared Near to a "money vacuum," citing past crashes and hype-driven narratives. Near's AI narrative (intents) is seen as unconvincing, and oversupply of altcoins crowds out investment merit. AVOID because it lacks sustainable value capture, with high risk of capital loss based on historical performance. If Near delivers on AI promises or gains unexpected adoption, it could outperform, but this is deemed unlikely.
NEAR AVOID
Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager
Medium-term, as trends away from its model.
Avi stated "Curve is totally cooked" and argued that stablecoin trading is over, with decentralized swaps being less convenient. Curve faces competition from centralized options like Hyperliquid, and its stablecoin (USDS) may not gain significant adoption. AVOID because Curve's utility has diminished, and it's unlikely to recover in a market shifting towards easier trading platforms. If decentralized stablecoin trading resurges or Curve innovates, it could rebound, but this is considered improbable.
CRV AVOID
Avi Felman
Principal at GoldenTree / Crypto Portfolio Manager
Short to medium-term, depending on crypto and AI trends.
Avi discussed Galaxy as a laggard trading at $23 (down from $40), with potential if crypto and AI data center narratives rebound. Galaxy's performance is tied to Bitcoin and its Helios data center repurposing for AI, but timing and monetization are uncertain. WATCH because it could offer a spicy trade if conditions improve, but risks remain due to earnings volatility and street skepticism. AI data center delays or continued poor earnings could further depress the stock.
GLXY WATCH
14:00
Mar 11
Mar 11
QQQ
ORCL
URA
CCJ
MP
▾
if they try to really push down the dollar, it might cause equities to go up... but there's a very significant downside scenario similar to 2025 where because foreigners aren't hedged in their dollar risk... every major equity index in the world is like at all-time high valuations. The incoming administration may attempt to devalue the US Dollar to rebalance global trade. Because foreign investors hold massive, unhedged positions in US equities, a falling dollar will force them to sell their US stock holdings to manage their currency risk, triggering a broad market selloff despite domestic liquidity. WATCH. The global positioning mismatch creates a massive tail risk for US equities if the government actively pursues a weaker dollar policy. The administration abandons the weak dollar policy, or domestic retail and institutional buying absorbs the foreign selling pressure.
QQQ WATCH
SPY WATCH
Oracle is the only company that is basically levering up really aggressively and pulling all negative returns into the present and pushing all future returns into the or all exponential returns into the future. Larry Ellison is aggressively using the company's balance sheet and capex to build AI infrastructure. Because he owns 40% of the company and they have heavily bought back shares, the public float is incredibly small. The recent stock drawdown has already priced in the heavy capex, creating a bottoming formation before the exponential AI revenue is realized. LONG. Oracle is a high-conviction, leveraged play on AI infrastructure with a tightly controlled float and a founder aggressively aligning the balance sheet for massive future growth. AI capex fails to generate the expected exponential returns, or competitors like xAI outcompete them in the specific infrastructure race Ellison is betting on.
ORCL LONG
we are going to need to lean back into nuclear energy in order to fund to power these data centers. I mean basically every single grid is tapped out. The AI boom requires massive amounts of electricity that current grids cannot support, forcing a structural pivot back to nuclear energy. Western-based uranium miners will secure larger, long-term supply contracts to feed this demand, ensuring profitability regardless of short-term spot price fluctuations. LONG. Uranium miners are a derivative play on AI data center growth, benefiting from structural energy deficits and a geopolitical push for Western energy self-reliance. Regulatory hurdles for new nuclear plants, timeline delays in data center construction, or alternative energy breakthroughs.
URA LONG
CCJ LONG
the US doesn't trust China and needs to establish its own supply line. So specifically US-based rare earth minerals continue to do well. Geopolitical fracturing between the US and China is forcing Western nations to onshore critical supply chains. Companies that mine and process rare earth minerals within the US or allied nations will receive a premium valuation and likely government support as they replace Chinese imports. LONG. US-based rare earth miners are a direct hedge against US-China trade wars and a beneficiary of the onshoring megatrend. China floods the market with cheap rare earths to bankrupt Western competitors, or geopolitical tensions unexpectedly cool down.
MP LONG
gold is specifically being stockpiled by central banks as a part of this divestment from US treasuries... if that stops then I think the gold run and the silver run stops. Gold's current rally is driven by the multipolar world thesis and foreign central banks diversifying away from the US Dollar. If the US achieves a clean regime change in Iran, US global hegemony will be re-established, causing foreign capital to flow back into US equities and halting the central bank gold-buying spree. WATCH. Maintain long exposure for now, but be prepared to rotate heavily out of gold and back into US equities if the Middle East conflict resolves with a decisive US strategic victory. The Iran conflict escalates into a messy regional war, accelerating the de-dollarization trend and pushing gold much higher before a rotation is possible.
GLD WATCH
18:31
Mar 10
Mar 10
USO
SPY
QQQ
GLD
INTC
▾
The only thing you're looking at on screen when you see $88 a barrel is you're seeing geopolitical risk. This thing is worth 50... if you can find a way to get short oil without getting your nuts blown off, you should do it. The spike in oil prices is entirely driven by transient geopolitical fears regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Because the US and Israel can guarantee maritime transit and the physical market is actually facing a supply glut, the geopolitical premium will evaporate, causing prices to crash back to fundamental levels. SHORT because the underlying physical market is oversupplied and the geopolitical risk premium is artificial and temporary. An unexpected, successful kinetic closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could cause a massive short squeeze and catastrophic global economic impacts.
USO SHORT
I'm very very very bullish on US equities now. I think that money is going to come flooding back in because I think that this war is going to be over very soon. By neutralizing Iran and Venezuela, the US is cutting off China's proxy network and re-establishing unipolar American hegemony. This will cause global capital to flee emerging markets and rotate heavily back into US equities as the premier safe haven and growth engine. LONG because the resolution of the Middle East conflict will solidify US global dominance and trigger massive capital inflows into American markets. The conflict escalates or drags on longer than expected, causing prolonged uncertainty and delayed capital rotation.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
I think that gold is a less good investment today than it was yesterday... the whole thesis behind gold is that if we're going into a multipolar world, people are going to want to be less exposed to America. Gold's recent bull run was heavily predicated on the rise of a multipolar world where countries diversify away from the US dollar. With the US successfully dismantling China's allied network (Iran/Venezuela), the multipolar thesis is breaking down, reducing the structural demand for gold. AVOID because the geopolitical landscape is shifting back toward US dominance, undermining the primary macro tailwind for gold. US inflation re-accelerates or the US dollar debases rapidly, driving gold demand regardless of the geopolitical power structure.
GLD AVOID
This war gave you a phenomenal entry on Intel. Intel is going to 80 bucks. We're going to be pumping out American chips. Geopolitical conflicts create temporary market dips that offer discounted entries into long-term mega-trends. The US government's mandate to onshore semiconductor manufacturing for national security ensures massive structural support for domestic chipmakers. LONG because transient war fears have temporarily mispriced a company that is central to the US national security and re-industrialization agenda. The company fails to execute on its foundry turnaround strategy or loses further market share to competitors before government subsidies can bridge the gap.
INTC LONG
I've been talking about Ramx since $65. It is now 98. I'm still bullish. I think it's going to 200. As the US aggressively decouples from China and reasserts its own industrial and energy independence, securing domestic and allied supply chains for strategic metals becomes a top priority, driving massive capital into rare earth miners. LONG because rare earth minerals are a critical bottleneck for modern technology and defense, and Western governments will heavily subsidize this sector to break Chinese monopolies. China floods the market with cheap rare earth minerals to bankrupt Western competitors, or new technologies reduce the need for these specific metals.
REMX LONG
Bitcoin is going to be extremely valuable um actually specifically because of the return of American strength because Bitcoin is very tied closely to the Trump regime. The current US administration is highly favorable to digital assets. A swift and successful resolution to the Middle East conflict strengthens the administration's political capital globally, which indirectly provides a safer, more supportive regulatory environment for major cryptocurrencies. LONG because geopolitical dips offer cheap entries into crypto assets that are fundamentally supported by the current US political regime. A broader macroeconomic liquidity contraction or unexpected regulatory crackdowns outside the US could suppress digital asset prices.
BTC LONG
ETH LONG
I think we got a good entry on the Tel Aviv stock exchange too. It's off 10 15% on this. It's going to go right back to the highs once this is over. Markets have aggressively priced in existential war risk into Israeli equities. As the conflict resolves with a decisive victory that degrades hostile proxies, the risk premium will vanish, causing a rapid mean-reversion in the local stock market. LONG because the underlying economy remains intact and the current discount is purely driven by temporary kinetic conflict. The war expands into a multi-front, protracted conflict that severely damages domestic infrastructure and economic output.
EIS LONG
What I do think is still very valuable, uranium, because we're still going to be pushing forward on energy production. The geopolitical conflict highlights the vulnerability of global energy supply chains. To ensure sovereignty and meet growing power demands, Western nations will accelerate their adoption of nuclear energy, creating a sustained demand shock for uranium. LONG because the macro necessity for secure, baseload energy production makes uranium a resilient mega-trend regardless of short-term geopolitical noise. A major nuclear accident could instantly halt global reactor development and destroy the political will for nuclear energy expansion.
URA LONG
13:00
Mar 05
Mar 05
BTC
HYPE
GLD
MSFT
GOOGL
▾
Flood states, "I am still bullish Bitcoin... good time to rewrite, but definitely still long-term bullish." He notes that if the thesis (monetary debasement) is unchanged, lower prices are better entries. He argues that fiscal deficits and debt structuring make currency debasement inevitable. While the "nation-state adoption" thesis hasn't played out yet, the macro backdrop for a store of value remains intact. LONG. He views current apathy and price drawdowns as an accumulation opportunity. Quantum computing risks (mentioned as a specific idiosyncratic risk to BTC).
BTC LONG
Flood discusses his firm's massive bet on Hyperliquid (HYPE), noting they were a significant amount of the "hour one, day one volume." He believes the market fundamentally misprices the revenue potential of perp DEXs compared to centralized exchanges (Binance makes ~$20B/year; market priced HYPE as if the sector makes $1B). HYPE captures the "on-chain, tech-native" trader, complementing the HOOD bet. LONG. High conviction bet on decentralized perpetuals gaining market share. Smart contract risk; regulatory crackdowns on DeFi.
HYPE LONG
Flood says, "If you had to weight long societal unrest, political unrest... you should do that." Avi Felman clarifies, "that's probably the gold trade," and Flood agrees. Political volatility is increasing globally. In times of "societal unrest," capital flees to non-sovereign stores of value. While BTC is the digital version, Gold is the traditional beneficiary of this specific type of fear. LONG. A hedge against political instability and election cycles. High real rates typically hurt gold; easing of geopolitical tensions.
GLD LONG
Flood states, "I wouldn't fade AI this year, candidly... the potential upside for AI is infinite." Even for a crypto trader, the capital flows into AI are undeniable. The narrative of "infinite returns" (AGI/Digital God) overrides valuation concerns. If capital must go somewhere, it flows to the sector promising the biggest technological leap. LONG. Momentum trade based on capital flows and narrative dominance. Valuation bubbles; regulatory scrutiny on big tech; diminishing returns on LLM scaling.
MSFT LONG
GOOGL LONG
NVDA LONG
Flood explicitly says, "We've been adding recently [to Robinhood]." He notes HOOD serves the "average everyday American retail." The "App Thesis": Value accrues to the interface that owns the customer. As US regulations potentially open up for perps/crypto derivatives, Robinhood is best positioned to capture that volume because they already own the user base. LONG. A bet on the "super app" aggregation of trading (crypto + stocks + perps). Regulatory delays in allowing perps in the US; competition from DeFi if UX improves.
HOOD LONG
Flood advises, "I wouldn't short alts down here... I would just not pay attention to them." While he believes most altcoins are "zeros" or "zombie companies," the risk/reward for shorting is poor because they have high beta to BTC and can squeeze 150% randomly. The "Great Alt Short" trade has passed. AVOID. Do not long (most are scams), do not short (squeeze risk). Missing a specific idiosyncratic runner (e.g., a meme coin mania).
ALTS AVOID
19:44
Feb 23
Feb 23
POLYMARKET
GOLD
XLE
URA
XLU
▾
The market is entering a period of extreme uncertainty and volatility where "hedge funds are moving money around like crazy." In high-volatility environments, you want to own "anti-fragile" assets that benefit from churn and volume, rather than directional bets on the economy. Long volatility-based platforms like Prediction Markets (Polymarket) and high-throughput exchanges (Hyperliquid) that earn fees from uncertainty. Regulatory crackdowns on prediction markets or crypto exchanges.
POLYMARKET LONG
HYPE LONG
The hosts agree that if AI causes a credit crisis or deflationary spiral, the government response is predictable. Unlike 2008, the response to a white-collar unemployment crisis will be immediate monetary expansion. The Fed and Treasury will "gang up and start blasting money into the economy." In a scenario of massive liquidity injection to combat deflation, hard assets and debasement hedges perform best. If the deflationary shock is severe enough to crush all asset prices before the printing begins (liquidity crunch).
GOLD LONG
BTC LONG
AI growth is currently bottlenecked by physical constraints: data centers, chips, and specifically energy. While software costs collapse, the demand for the physical inputs required to run AI (electricity) will skyrocket. Utilities and energy producers have pricing power. Long energy majors (Exxon, Chevron), Uranium (nuclear resurgence), and Utilities (Constellation Energy) as they provide the critical infrastructure for the AI buildout. A faster-than-expected efficiency in AI compute reducing energy needs.
XLE LONG
URA LONG
XLU LONG
CEG LONG
XOM LONG
CVX LONG
The "Catrini" article suggests computing will move to the "edge" (local devices) to reduce costs and latency. Apple owns the most valuable "edge" real estate (the iPhone). As AI models run locally on devices rather than in the cloud, the hardware provider becomes the gatekeeper and beneficiary of increased compute usage per person. Apple is the prime beneficiary of the shift to edge computing, yet sold off on the news, creating a buying opportunity. If AI models remain too large to run effectively on consumer hardware.
AAPL LONG
Anthropic recently announced that cloud code can automate COBOL modernization (updating old banking/mainframe code). IBM's business model relies heavily on human consulting and legacy system maintenance (COBOL). If AI automates this "human friction," IBM's moat evaporates. Short "human output" businesses like IBM that charge for services AI can do for free. IBM successfully pivoting to become a dominant AI service provider (unlikely according to speaker).
IBM SHORT
If the AI-driven deflation thesis plays out, the cost of goods and wages will collapse. In a deflationary environment, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to zero immediately to stimulate the economy. Long duration Treasuries (TLT) rip higher when rates collapse to zero. If the response is inflationary printing (stagflation) rather than pure deflation, bonds could suffer.
TLT LONG
The "Catrini" thesis argues AI removes friction. Companies like DoorDash and Salesforce exist largely to manage friction or act as a middleman. If AI agents can navigate the web and order food/manage data directly, the "app layer" and "middleman fees" (interchange fees, platform fees) get compressed to zero. Avoid companies whose primary value is acting as a user interface or friction-reducer, as AI agents will bypass them for the cheapest underlying service. These companies successfully integrating AI to lower their own costs and retaining pricing power.
CRM AVOID
DASH AVOID
UBER AVOID
The world is undergoing massive structural changes and geopolitical instability. Governments are forced to spend on security regardless of the economic cycle. European defense stocks specifically are highlighted as a "mega trend" with good entry points coming up. Geopolitical de-escalation or cuts in government spending.
ITA LONG
13:47
Feb 17
Feb 17
AERODROME
MEMECOINS
CRM
TEAM
INTU
▾
"This is the dot com implosion moment where your pets.com goes to zero, but everything else ends up going up... things like Morpho and things like Uniswap... things like Hyperliquid that are generating real capital." The crypto market is bifurcating. Speculative assets with no revenue are entering a deep bear market. However, protocols that generate actual fees and have product-market fit (Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Aerodrome) are currently being dragged down by the broader market beta but represent the "Amazon" opportunities of this cycle. Long high-quality DeFi protocols with real revenue. A prolonged "Crypto Winter" (9-18 months) drags all assets down regardless of fundamentals.
AERODROME LONG
HYPE LONG
UNI LONG
"In these violent bare markets, you get squeezes. If you're just sitting there ready to with the hammer in your hand, ready to play some whack-a-ole... you can whack some moles." The meme coin supercycle is over, and these assets are in a secular downtrend. However, they experience violent dead-cat bounces. These bounces are not recovery signals but liquidity exit opportunities for short sellers. Short meme coins specifically during 15-20% relief rallies. "Animal spirits" return unexpectedly, causing a short squeeze before the asset goes to zero.
MEMECOINS SHORT
"The revenues from all these companies are basically going to get back in and reinvested in the mega caps... I guarantee you that a lot of people are getting rid of Salesforce because they've just built their own internal tools." AI drastically lowers the barrier to entry for software creation. Companies will stop paying premium subscriptions for "System of Record" software (Salesforce, Atlassian, Intuit, Adobe, Workday) when they can build bespoke internal solutions for a fraction of the cost using AI. This leads to a structural collapse in B2B SaaS revenue. Short legacy B2B SaaS providers on bounces. AI adoption slows down, or these legacy companies successfully pivot to becoming essential AI platforms themselves.
CRM SHORT
TEAM SHORT
INTU SHORT
ADBE SHORT
WDAY SHORT
GOOG LONG
META LONG
AMZN LONG
MSFT LONG
"Hype's trading as much volume as Coinbase now... Coinbase is just imploding." Decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid are eating Coinbase's market share in volume, yet trade at a fraction of the valuation. As on-chain trading becomes superior, Coinbase's centralized dominance erodes. Short Coinbase (or pair trade: Long HYPE / Short COIN). Regulatory crackdowns on DeFi force users back to compliant centralized exchanges.
COIN SHORT
"My take is that there is value at like 60 to 64k per BTC and that's where I would look at accumulating longterm." Despite the lack of a current bullish narrative (Gold decoupling, liquidity pause), price action suggests deep value support in the low 60k region. The "Quantum FUD" is a non-issue fundamentally, as the chain would simply fork to a quantum-resistant version. Accumulate Bitcoin in the $60k-$64k zone; aggressive buy at $52k. Global liquidity crunch or a breakdown of the "digital gold" narrative.
BTC LONG
07:12
Feb 17
Feb 17
AERODROME
MEMECOINS
MONAD
GOOG
META
▾
"Hyperliquid is trading as much volume as Coinbase now... Uniswap are getting bought up by large institutions... these things are actually generating real revenues." This is the "dot-com implosion moment" where 99% of projects die (Pets.com), but the real businesses (Amazon) survive. Protocols generating actual cash flow and volume are being dragged down by the broader crypto bear market, creating a deep value opportunity. Long DeFi protocols with real revenue/volume (Uniswap, Hyperliquid, Aerodrome). Regulatory crackdowns on DeFi interfaces or a prolonged 18-month "crypto winter" that suppresses all assets regardless of quality.
AERODROME LONG
HYPE LONG
UNI LONG
"Whiff... traded from 25 cents up to 50 cents and now it's trading 23 cents. Like in these violent bear markets, you get squeezes." In a bear market, "garbage" assets (memecoins) trend to zero but have violent dead-cat bounces. These bounces provide liquidity to enter short positions. Short Memecoins (specifically WIF mentioned) into strength/squeezes. "Animal spirits" return suddenly, causing a short squeeze (memecoins can 10x irrationality).
MEMECOINS SHORT
"Why bet on some random crypto project... why bet on Layer Zero or Monad... or Sei or Sui or Aptos when you can gamble on [Prediction Markets]?" Retail liquidity is shifting away from "Tech" coins (L1s/Interop) toward pure gambling (Prediction Markets). Without the "casino" aspect of community pumps, these high-valuation infrastructure plays have no buyer of last resort. Avoid generic L1s and "Zombie Chains" as attention shifts to gambling/prediction markets. A specific app breakout on one of these chains attracts liquidity back.
MONAD AVOID
SUI AVOID
APT AVOID
ZRO AVOID
"The revenues that were going to those companies [SaaS] are going to be absorbed into savings from Google... profit go up." Large tech companies are vertically integrated "Exxon Mobiles of compute." They have the capital to build internal software replacements using AI, cutting out third-party SaaS vendors. This reduces OpEx and increases margins for the Hyperscalers, making them the ultimate beneficiaries of the AI productivity boom. Long Mega Cap Tech as they capture the value previously leaked to SaaS vendors. Regulatory breakup risks or a failure of AI to deliver actual coding productivity gains.
GOOG LONG
META LONG
AMZN LONG
MSFT LONG
"In the next three years, I guarantee you that a lot of people are getting rid of Salesforce because they've just built their own internal tools." The "SaaS Apocalypse." AI allows companies to build bespoke "System of Record" tools in-house rather than paying expensive per-seat licensing fees. This creates a secular downtrend for B2B SaaS companies that rely on high switching costs that AI is now eroding. Short legacy SaaS providers. (Tactical note: Do not short in the hole; wait for 15-20% rallies/bounces to enter shorts). Institutional inertia; companies may be slower to switch off legacy systems than anticipated.
CRM SHORT
TEAM SHORT
INTU SHORT
WDAY SHORT
ADBE SHORT
"Hyperliquid is trading as much volume as Coinbase now... Coinbase is just imploding." Decentralized exchanges (like Hyperliquid) are eating Coinbase's market share in volume, yet trade at a fraction of the valuation. As on-chain trading becomes superior, the centralized incumbent (Coinbase) loses its moat. Short Coinbase as a hedge against Long DeFi. Regulatory moat protects Coinbase; institutional flows (ETFs) continue to favor Coinbase custody.
COIN SHORT
"My take is that there is value at like 60 to 64k per BTC... maybe we get down to 52K at which case you really can back up the truck." Bitcoin is currently in a liquidity air-gap. While momentum is down, the fundamental value zone is 60-64k. The "Quantum FUD" is noise because the chain will simply fork to solve it, preserving value for active holders. Accumulate Bitcoin in the low 60s; aggressive buy at 52k. Global liquidity crunch or "Crypto Winter" lasts 18 months (Mike Ippolito thesis).
BTC LONG
08:01
Feb 12
Feb 12
XLI
ITB
MEMECOINS
GOOGL
URA
▾
Jonah argues against buying raw commodities (like Nat Gas) due to supply gluts, stating one should focus on the "manufactured commodity" or the "machine." Data centers don't need raw gas; they need *electricity* (the manufactured commodity) and physical structures. The alpha is not in the fuel (which is abundant), but in the conversion (Utilities) and the build-out (Construction/Industrials) of the data centers themselves. Long the "Pick and Shovel" plays of the AI build-out (Utilities, Grid, Construction). High interest rates slowing down physical construction projects.
XLI LONG
ITB LONG
XLE LONG
Avi says, "If you get a pop for memes that's free money. You just short the [__] out of that." The market regime has shifted fundamentally. We are in a "reality sets in" phase where assets without revenue or utility are repricing to zero. Any rally in speculative assets is simply exit liquidity, not a new bull run. Sell rips / Short rallies in speculative tokens. A sudden return of "mania" retail liquidity (low probability according to speakers).
MEMECOINS SHORT
Avi states, "Capital concentration is the name of the game... Mag 7... going to outperform all other tech companies." While skeptics cite high Capex as a negative, this spending builds an insurmountable moat. The massive productivity gains and infrastructure ownership (data centers) will accrue astronomical capital to these incumbents before any regulatory or AGI-level disruption occurs. Long the incumbents. The "underperformance" due to Capex fears has already played out. Regulatory breakup or a faster-than-expected shift to AGI that breaks the current corporate model.
GOOGL LONG
AMZN LONG
FNGS LONG
Avi identifies a "geopolitical mega trend" and notes "Uranium... is going to be very critical to powering the next stage of energy production." The convergence of AI (massive energy demand) and Geopolitics (US isolationism/supply chain security) creates a bottleneck for power and critical minerals. Nuclear (Uranium) and domestic sourcing of Rare Earths are the only viable solutions to power data centers independent of foreign reliance. Long Uranium and Rare Earth miners. Regulatory hurdles for new nuclear plants or environmental pushback on mining.
URA LONG
REMX LONG
Jonah states, "I think the lows are in... when we wicked down to... 60k I think that was it." The market is flushing out "useless" crypto assets (the Dot Com bust phase), but Bitcoin remains the premier "hard asset." The current chop is a transfer of value from impatient retail to institutions. The regulatory backdrop is constructive, and the "washout" creates a clean base for the next leg up. Accumulate at 60k-65k levels. A "real financial crisis" (Lehman style) contagion event that forces a deeper liquidation of all assets.
BTC LONG
02:35
Feb 03
Feb 03
GOLD
SILVER
HYPE
REMX
URA
▾
Jonah Van Bourg
Global Head of Trading at Cumberland (Implied role based on context/history)
Short-term (Wait for stabilization)
Gold fell ~22% in weeks; Silver crashed harder. Volatility has exploded. Second-Order Thinking regarding CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors). CTAs target specific volatility levels. When Gold was slow/steady, they sized up massively. Now that volatility has spiked, their risk models force them to sell to reduce variance. Jonah estimates they are only "25% of the way" through their forced selling. Do not catch the falling knife. The "unwind" will take weeks as quants systematically reduce exposure. Central banks could step in aggressively to buy the dip earlier than expected.
GOLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
Jonah Van Bourg
Global Head of Trading at Cumberland (Implied role based on context/history)
Medium to Long-term
Hyperliquid is trading ~$31 (up 50% recently) while the rest of the market nukes. Volumes on the exchange are hitting billions, rivaling traditional finance venues. "Usage is King." In a bear/choppy market, revenue-generating infrastructure outperforms speculative assets. Hyperliquid is capturing market share from both crypto (CEXs) and TradFi (commodities/stocks on-chain). Jonah explicitly mentions selling "out of the money" Bitcoin tax lots to rotate into HYPE. High conviction Long. It is viewed as the "Google/Coinbase" of this cycle—a product with genuine product-market fit regardless of asset prices. Regulatory intervention (though mitigated if Trump administration is lenient) or competition from other DEXs.
HYPE LONG
Jonah Van Bourg
Global Head of Trading at Cumberland (Implied role based on context/history)
Long-term (Mega Trend)
Uranium (URA) is at $53 and Rare Earths (REMX) at $85. These assets plummeted alongside Gold and Silver during the recent crash. This is a "correlation failure." Retail and algos treated these assets as high-beta plays on Gold. When Gold crashed, these were sold indiscriminately. However, their fundamentals (nuclear energy ramp-up) are uncorrelated to Gold's monetary premium. The sell-off is technical, not fundamental. Buy the "unfairly dragged around" assets. The "Mega Trend" (nuclear/critical minerals) timeline exceeds the short-term volatility of the metals crash. Continued broad market "risk-off" flows could suppress all commodities regardless of fundamentals.
REMX LONG
URA LONG
Avi Felman
Principal / Portfolio Manager at GoldenTree (Implied role based on context/history)
Short-term (Trade) / Long-term (Allocation)
Bitcoin retraced from highs to the $74k-$78k range. Avi states, "This is what you wait for... the risk/reward on this trade is great." The $74k level represents a critical support zone (previous "original buy zone"). The market is currently in a "range" structure; buying at the bottom of the range ($74k) with a stop loss just below allows for a high R/R trade targeting a bounce to $90k-$92k. Buy spot or long perps in the $74k-$78k zone. A sustained break below $74k invalidates the range thesis and signals a deeper bear market.
BTC LONG
Avi Felman
Principal / Portfolio Manager at GoldenTree (Implied role based on context/history)
Short-term
"ETH really got absolutely nuked on high volume." Unlike Bitcoin (which has a clear support structure at $74k) or Solana (defending $100), Ethereum is showing relative weakness and technical breakdown without clear buyer interest. Capital is better deployed in BTC (safety) or HYPE (growth). An unexpected rotation back into L1s could squeeze shorts.
ETH AVOID
19:21
Feb 02
Feb 02
GOLD
SILVER
URA
REMX
BTC
▾
Jonah Van Bourg
Global Head of Trading at Cumberland (Implied role based on context/history)
short-term
Gold fell 22% rapidly; Silver "nuked." Prices have crossed below the 50-day and likely 100-day moving averages. Volatility has spiked to historic highs. CTAs (systematic funds) manage risk via volatility targeting. When volatility spikes, they *must* reduce position size to keep variance constant. Additionally, crossing moving averages triggers sell signals. Jonah estimates CTAs are only 25% through their required selling. Do not catch the falling knife. The systematic unwind will take weeks/months, not days. Central banks (sovereign buyers) could step in earlier than expected to arrest the price drop.
GOLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
Jonah Van Bourg
Global Head of Trading at Cumberland (Implied role based on context/history)
long-term
Uranium (URA ETF at $53) and Rare Earths (REMX at $85) have sold off aggressively alongside Gold and Silver. This is a correlation dislocation. Retail and algos sold "all metals" blindly. However, Uranium and Rare Earths are driven by a "mega trend" (nuclear energy ramp-up) and are not monetary assets like Gold. The sell-off is a liquidity event, not a fundamental one. Buy the dip. These assets were "unfairly dragged around" and offer a better entry than the crowded precious metals trade. Continued broad market risk-off sentiment could suppress all commodities regardless of fundamentals.
URA LONG
REMX LONG
Avi Felman
Principal / Portfolio Manager at GoldenTree (Implied role based on context/history)
medium-term
Bitcoin dropped 40% from highs, piercing the $74k level before bouncing to $78k. Volume on the selling drives is decreasing, signaling seller exhaustion. The 40% drawdown flushes out "tourist" leverage. The $74k-$77k zone represents a high-time-frame support level where risk/reward flips heavily in favor of long-term allocators. The "disgusting" chart scares retail, which is usually a buy signal. Accumulate in the $74k-$77k zone. A sustained break below $74k invalidates the range support; further macro "indigestion" from tariffs.
BTC LONG
Jonah Van Bourg
Global Head of Trading at Cumberland (Implied role based on context/history)
medium-term
Hyperliquid volumes are trending up significantly, trading billions in real-world assets (Silver/Gold) and crypto. The token is up 50% recently despite the market crash. In crypto, "usage is king." Hyperliquid is capturing market share from traditional exchanges (like Nasdaq) and crypto competitors because it is a superior product with no supply overhang. It is transitioning from a "crypto play" to a revenue-generating financial infrastructure play. High conviction Long. Jonah suggests selling underwater Bitcoin positions to harvest tax losses and rotating that capital into HYPE. Regulatory intervention (though Trump administration perceived as favorable); competition from other decentralized exchanges.
HYPE LONG
Avi Felman
Principal / Portfolio Manager at GoldenTree (Implied role based on context/history)
short-term
Ethereum "got absolutely nuked on high volume" and broke key levels. Unlike Solana (defending $100) or Bitcoin (at long-term support), ETH shows no relative strength or clean support structure. The high-volume sell-off indicates institutional exit or capitulation without a clear floor. Focus capital on BTC or SOL instead. An unexpected rotation back into ETH if the "value" proposition resurfaces.
ETH AVOID
08:24
Jan 27
Jan 27
GOLD
SILVER
XMR
ZEC
REMX
▾
Avi Felman
Principal / Portfolio Manager at GoldenTree (Implied role based on context/history)
Short-term
Avi notes Silver is up nearly 300% and trading like a crypto memecoin, driven by retail panic rather than central bank buying (unlike Gold). Jonah notes that CTAs are "max long" and will dump aggressively once the trend breaks. When an asset moves vertically due to retail FOMO and algorithmic trend-following, it creates a "blow-off top." Once the price dips below key moving averages (50-day/100-day), CTAs will flip from long to short, causing a catastrophic cascade. AVOID buying here. Look to SHORT only after momentum breaks and price crosses below the 50-day moving average. "Irrational exuberance" can last longer than solvency; shorting a parabolic move before the confirmed breakdown is dangerous.
GOLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
Avi Felman
Principal / Portfolio Manager at GoldenTree (Implied role based on context/history)
Long-term
Avi notes that "humans will always commit crime" and need a place to store/move illicit value, explicitly naming Monero (XMR) and ZCash (ZEC). As geopolitical instability rises and governments weaponize the banking system (seizing assets), the utility value of privacy coins—which act as digital bearer assets outside the surveillance state—increases fundamentally. LONG. A hedge against total surveillance and banking censorship. Delistings from major centralized exchanges (Binance/Coinbase) due to regulatory pressure.
XMR LONG
ZEC LONG
Avi Felman
Principal / Portfolio Manager at GoldenTree (Implied role based on context/history)
Long-term (10-15 years)
Avi states that unlike Silver, assets like Rare Earths (REMX), Copper, and Uranium have genuine industrial and national security demand. He explicitly mentions the US will likely increase investment in domestic mining in the next 6-12 months. In a "fractured, multipolar world," nations must secure their own supply chains for energy and defense. This creates a structural supply deficit for these specific commodities that does not exist for speculative metals like Silver. LONG. These are "buy the dip" assets because they are supported by a multi-decade secular trend of deglobalization. A global recession could dampen industrial demand for Copper specifically.
REMX LONG
COPX LONG
URA LONG
Avi Felman
Principal / Portfolio Manager at GoldenTree (Implied role based on context/history)
Medium-term
Avi argues "Crypto is dead" as a sector, but specific fintech-adjacent protocols like Hyperliquid are generating massive revenue and have worked through supply overhangs. As the market matures, speculative "governance tokens" will die, and value will accrue solely to protocols that function like equities (generating cash flow/revenue). LONG. Focus on revenue-generating infrastructure rather than narrative plays. Regulatory crackdowns on DeFi protocols that act like unregistered securities.
HYPE LONG
Avi Felman
Principal / Portfolio Manager at GoldenTree (Implied role based on context/history)
Short-term
Avi describes the Bitcoin chart as "the ugliest chart I've ever seen," noting it is languishing below 90k and failing to break out despite the Gold rally. Gold profits are *not* rotating into Bitcoin because the buyer bases are different (Central Banks/Boomers vs. Speculators). Without a narrative catalyst or a flush to reset leverage (potentially below 80k), capital is flowing elsewhere. WATCH. Wait for a flush or a reclaim of momentum. Currently in "no man's land." If Bitcoin is viewed purely as a risk-on asset, a stock market correction could drag it down further.
BTC WATCH
Choose Sources
Loading sources...