What's Next For Markets, Will Oil Hit $150?
Speakers
Avi Felman -- Co-Host
— 1000x Podcast co-host, Radhan Road partner
Jonah Van Bourg -- Co-Host
— 1000x Podcast co-host, ex-Cumberland/Goldman trader
Summary
- The primary market overhang is the Iran war and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz closure. A swift resolution would likely resume the bull market, while prolonged closure risks stagflation.
- Current oil price action (~$110) is driven by a massive blow-up of consensus short positions and, uniquely, the physical trading community being forced to unwind hedges due to force majeure clauses, creating extreme volatility.
- A core thesis is that high commodity prices are self-correcting. The expected end-state is a political off-ramp within weeks, leading to a sharp mean reversion in oil prices as Saudi Arabia and others ramp production.
- The investment portfolio should be structured around two main scenarios: 1) War resolves, oil drops, and tech stocks rip (higher probability). 2) Stagflation emerges, requiring gold as a hedge.
- Gold's behavior has shifted; it is now seen as a "risk-on" asset that central banks sell during crises to shore up finances, rather than a classic safe-haven, limiting its upside in the current conflict.
- The market's short-term focus on the war creates a buying opportunity for long-term "mega-trends" that are being overlooked, specifically increased spending on compute/AI and the growth of on-chain/stablecoin payments infrastructure.
- Crypto (beyond just Bitcoin) is showing resilience, not selling off on bad geopolitical news, which is seen as a bullish signal indicating weak hands have already been flushed out.
- The force majeure issue is a key nuance: physical traders who are long physical oil and short futures as a hedge get caught nakedly short when producers invoke force majeure, forcing them to cover and exacerbating price spikes.
Trade Ideas
The speaker explicitly states he wants to be "as deep in gold as possible" in a scenario where the Fed must cut due to poor employment/manufacturing data but inflation remains high from oil. In a stagflationary scenario (high inflation, muted growth), gold could rally massively as a hedge against dollar pressure and inflation. Gold is a conditional hedge in the portfolio, weighted for a lower-probability outcome. It is "watched" based on incoming employment and inflation data. Gold is behaving as a "risk-on" asset, not a safe-haven; central banks are currently sellers, not buyers, capping its upside in the crisis.
The speaker states a 90% chance the Strait of Hormuz situation resolves within weeks, leading to a sharp mean reversion in oil prices, and a 10% chance of prolonged crisis/stagflation. Commodities are mean-reverting, and high prices solve high prices. Political will for a prolonged conflict is low, and an off-ramp will be found. Saudi Arabia has signaled it will max production post-conflict. The high probability scenario is for a sharp oil price decline. The extreme volatility (~$6.50 daily move) and risk of being stopped out make it an unattractive, high-risk trade despite the bearish view. The 10% stagflation scenario where the Strait remains closed, causing oil to spike much higher.
The speaker states he is "dip buying" SPY right now, viewing it as a better-hedged version of MAG7 with less volatility. The core view is that the Iran conflict is transient. If it resolves, the bull market resumes. SPY provides broad exposure to that outcome, specifically the expected rip in tech, with lower single-stock risk. SPY is a preferred vehicle to express the high-probability view that the geopolitical overhang passes and markets rally. A prolonged oil crisis leading to stagflation, which would negatively impact equities.
The speaker mentions he has "been banging the drum on Intel for a long time" and notes it has "performed extremely well off the lows." Intel is cited as an example of a way to gain exposure to the "mega-trend" of increased spending on compute/AI. It is presented as a long-term holding that can be bought during short-term market distractions like the Iran war. Intel is a long-term buy as a discounted play on the compute/AI spending trend. Company-specific execution risk within the competitive semiconductor industry.
The speaker states crypto has been "beaten down," "nobody is paying attention," and this provides opportunity. He notes resilience (BTC not dropping on war news, ETH/SOL up) and asks, "who's left to sell?" The market's short-term focus on geopolitics has created capital allocation away from long-term trends like crypto. The asset class is showing signs of price exhaustion to the downside (failure to sell off on bad news), indicating a potential bottom. The setup is becoming attractive for a broad resurgence in crypto. It is "watched" for a potential entry point as weakness appears to be ending. Further geopolitical or regulatory shocks could still trigger selling.
The speaker argues Stripe is "better positioned to capture" the value from on-chain transactions than "pretty much anybody else" and is a "wave you can kind of ride now" in secondary markets. The mega-trend is the growth of efficient, API-based, and ultimately on-chain payments. Stripe owns a dominant share of the current API-based payment stack for commerce and is actively integrating crypto/stablecoin infrastructure (Tempo, Bridge). Stripe is a long-term investment to gain exposure to the convergence of traditional e-commerce payments and crypto/stablecoin rails. Valuation risk in private secondary markets; execution risk in integrating new payment technologies.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published April 08, 2026, features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg discussing GOLD, WTI, SPY, INTC, BTC, STRIPE. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg · Tickers: GOLD, WTI, SPY, INTC, BTC, STRIPE