Finding Edge as a Trader, The Hyperliquid Thesis & Trades For 2026 | Capital Flows
Speakers
Avi Felman — Host
— 1000x Podcast co-host, Radhan Road partner
Summary
- Discretionary traders currently hold a structural edge over systematic funds due to elevated implied volatility, headline risks, and the sheer size of encumbered asset managers who cannot maneuver quickly.
- A decisive US victory or clean regime change in Iran could severely handicap China's geopolitical apparatus, extending US hegemony and forcing global capital out of emerging markets and gold back into US equities.
- The AI data center build-out has tapped out local power grids, creating a structural, long-term bull market for Western-based nuclear energy and uranium miners.
- A major tail risk for US equities exists if the incoming administration actively devalues the US Dollar to rebalance global trade, as foreign investors hold massive unhedged US equity positions and would be forced to sell to cover FX risk.
- Hyperliquid (via the PER treasury stock) and Oracle represent two idiosyncratic, high-conviction long ideas based on unique capital structures, regulatory moats, and aggressive founder-led value creation.
Trade Ideas
gold is specifically being stockpiled by central banks as a part of this divestment from US treasuries... if that stops then I think the gold run and the silver run stops. Gold's current rally is driven by the multipolar world thesis and foreign central banks diversifying away from the US Dollar. If the US achieves a clean regime change in Iran, US global hegemony will be re-established, causing foreign capital to flow back into US equities and halting the central bank gold-buying spree. WATCH. Maintain long exposure for now, but be prepared to rotate heavily out of gold and back into US equities if the Middle East conflict resolves with a decisive US strategic victory. The Iran conflict escalates into a messy regional war, accelerating the de-dollarization trend and pushing gold much higher before a rotation is possible.
we are going to need to lean back into nuclear energy in order to fund to power these data centers. I mean basically every single grid is tapped out. The AI boom requires massive amounts of electricity that current grids cannot support, forcing a structural pivot back to nuclear energy. Western-based uranium miners will secure larger, long-term supply contracts to feed this demand, ensuring profitability regardless of short-term spot price fluctuations. LONG. Uranium miners are a derivative play on AI data center growth, benefiting from structural energy deficits and a geopolitical push for Western energy self-reliance. Regulatory hurdles for new nuclear plants, timeline delays in data center construction, or alternative energy breakthroughs.
the US doesn't trust China and needs to establish its own supply line. So specifically US-based rare earth minerals continue to do well. Geopolitical fracturing between the US and China is forcing Western nations to onshore critical supply chains. Companies that mine and process rare earth minerals within the US or allied nations will receive a premium valuation and likely government support as they replace Chinese imports. LONG. US-based rare earth miners are a direct hedge against US-China trade wars and a beneficiary of the onshoring megatrend. China floods the market with cheap rare earths to bankrupt Western competitors, or geopolitical tensions unexpectedly cool down.
if they try to really push down the dollar, it might cause equities to go up... but there's a very significant downside scenario similar to 2025 where because foreigners aren't hedged in their dollar risk... every major equity index in the world is like at all-time high valuations. The incoming administration may attempt to devalue the US Dollar to rebalance global trade. Because foreign investors hold massive, unhedged positions in US equities, a falling dollar will force them to sell their US stock holdings to manage their currency risk, triggering a broad market selloff despite domestic liquidity. WATCH. The global positioning mismatch creates a massive tail risk for US equities if the government actively pursues a weaker dollar policy. The administration abandons the weak dollar policy, or domestic retail and institutional buying absorbs the foreign selling pressure.
Oracle is the only company that is basically levering up really aggressively and pulling all negative returns into the present and pushing all future returns into the or all exponential returns into the future. Larry Ellison is aggressively using the company's balance sheet and capex to build AI infrastructure. Because he owns 40% of the company and they have heavily bought back shares, the public float is incredibly small. The recent stock drawdown has already priced in the heavy capex, creating a bottoming formation before the exponential AI revenue is realized. LONG. Oracle is a high-conviction, leveraged play on AI infrastructure with a tightly controlled float and a founder aggressively aligning the balance sheet for massive future growth. AI capex fails to generate the expected exponential returns, or competitors like xAI outcompete them in the specific infrastructure race Ellison is betting on.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published March 11, 2026, features Avi Felman, Capital Flows discussing GLD, URA, CCJ, MP, QQQ, SPY, ORCL. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Avi Felman, Capital Flows · Tickers: GLD, URA, CCJ, MP, QQQ, SPY, ORCL