The Market Is Splitting In Two — How Do We Navigate it?
Speakers
Avi Felman
— Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Jonah Van Bourg
— Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol
Summary
Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg discuss the splitting market, with alt season rally warnings and a memory supercycle. They offer actionable pair trades (MSTR/BTC, XMR/ZEC) and advocate shorting software as AI disrupts the sector. The episode also touches on tax-loss harvesting, the Iran/Hormuz tail risk, and applying crypto trading skills to equities.
- The market is exhibiting high dispersion with alt season in equities (catch-up trades like Dell) signaling potential top.
- DDR4 DRAM prices are presented as the leading indicator for the AI bubble; the rally in memory stocks is tied to physical demand.
- Pair trade ideas: short MSTR / long BTC (or IBIT) to exploit MicroStrategy's NAV premium; long XMR / short ZEC on privacy/quantum narratives.
- Software is recommended as a short because AI will disrupt the sector; the recent short squeeze provides an entry.
- Healthcare and biotech are highlighted as overlooked sectors that could benefit from AI, but no strong trade is established.
- The hosts advocate maintaining high cash levels and concentration in single names to buy dips, citing Mag 7 and uranium as conditional buys.
- The Iran/Hormuz oil tail risk is discussed as a potential macro shock that could severely impact equities.
- Crypto traders are encouraged to delete the label and apply their narrative skills to equities for better opportunities.
Trade Ideas
Long XMR, short ZEC pair
Privacy coins and quantum-resistance narratives are driving interest in Monero and Zcash. XMR has already outperformed ZEC but still has roughly 50% further upside against ZEC, making a long XMR / short ZEC pair attractive.
Long XMR, short ZEC pair
Privacy coins and quantum-resistance narratives are driving interest in Monero and Zcash. XMR has already outperformed ZEC but still has roughly 50% further upside against ZEC, making a long XMR / short ZEC pair attractive.
Short MSTR, long BTC pair
MicroStrategy trades at 1.2x NAV and as Michael Saylor faces a survival crisis and unwinds positions, the premium will likely compress, potentially to a discount. Pair short MSTR with long BTC (or IBIT) to capture the convergence while remaining notional neutral.
Short MSTR, long BTC pair
MicroStrategy trades at 1.2x NAV and as Michael Saylor faces a survival crisis and unwinds positions, the premium will likely compress, potentially to a discount. Pair short MSTR with long BTC (or IBIT) to capture the convergence while remaining notional neutral.
Short software, AI disrupts sector
Software businesses will be heavily disrupted by AI over the next three years. After a 25% short squeeze rally, the sector offers a compelling short entry as the underlying secular headwinds remain intact.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published June 03, 2026, features Avi Felman discussing XMR, ZEC, MSTR, BTC, IGV. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.