Why We’ve Bottomed, Oil Hits $100 & The Stablecoin Trade
Speakers
Avi Felman -- Host / Analyst
— 1000x Podcast co-host, Radhan Road partner
Jonah Van Bourg -- Host / Analyst
— 1000x Podcast co-host, ex-Cumberland/Goldman trader
Summary
- Crypto market has bottomed with Bitcoin breaking out from ~66k to 73k, indicating exhausted sellers and potential for further rally to 85-90k in the short to medium term.
- Oil prices spiked near $100 due to Iran conflict, but speakers believe it won't escalate regionally; Hyperliquid offers unique weekend trading advantages, benefiting retail over institutions.
- Stablecoin adoption is a key narrative, with Circle doubling in value despite a high forward PE of ~119, driven by growth hopes; Sky Protocol shows strong revenue (~$200-420M annualized) and TVL ($21B).
- Bullish on specific crypto assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Hyperliquid, Sky, and Robin Hood (HOOD), expecting 2-3x returns over 6-8 months as risk appetite returns post-Iran fears.
- Bearish on altcoins due to infinite supply from platforms like pump.fun; specifically avoid Near Protocol (called a "money vacuum") and Curve (deemed obsolete for stablecoin swaps).
- After Iran fears pass, expect capital flow back into American tech and software companies, with sectors like technology services poised for recovery in Q2 2026.
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY) is a laggard trade at $23, down from $40, with uncertainty around AI data center monetization; worth watching for a bounce if crypto recovers.
- Macro view: U.S. assets may outperform post-conflict, with potential declines in gold, silver, and emerging markets as hedge funds like Stan Druckenmiller possibly exit positions.
- Key risks: Bitcoin breakout failure below 69k could lead to new lows; stablecoin valuations like Circle's may not justify prices if revenue growth disappoints.
- Disagreement on Near Protocol: Jonah is strongly bearish, while Avi acknowledges an AI narrative but remains skeptical; both agree on avoiding most altcoins.
Trade Ideas
Avi explicitly stated "I am bullish on Bitcoin" and noted Bitcoin broke out from 66k to 73k, clearing a key resistance level. The breakout indicates exhausted sellers after weeks of failing to make new lows, suggesting bullish momentum and a potential rally. LONG because technical breakout supports upside, with a target of 85-90k, and it's a risk-adjusted bet with a stop below 69k. If Bitcoin fails and trades back below 69k, it could signal a failed breakout and lead to new lows.
Avi stated "we've been hyperlook bulls" and highlighted Hyperliquid's unique ability to trade oil on weekends when traditional markets are closed. This advantage attracts retail traders and could drive adoption, especially with institutional interest pending regulatory whitelisting. LONG because Hyperliquid has a competitive edge in 24/7 trading, potential for growth, and could reach $150-200 in value. Regulatory hurdles delay institutional access, or competitors emerge with similar offerings.
Avi said "Ethereum looks phenomenal" and linked its performance to the stablecoin adoption narrative. Stablecoin growth drives demand for Ethereum as a platform, improving the ETH/BTC ratio and supporting price appreciation. LONG because Ethereum benefits from the stablecoin trade and technical strength, with potential for significant recovery. Stablecoin adoption slows or fails to materialize, or broader crypto sell-off impacts Ethereum.
Avi mentioned Robin Hood (HOOD) trading at $77, with a low of $70, and said it "can easily go back to 120" as crypto recovers. Increased trading activity from crypto rallies drives revenue for HOOD, making it a leveraged play on market recovery. LONG because HOOD is poised to rebound with crypto momentum, offering significant upside from current levels. Crypto rally falters, or HOOD faces competitive or regulatory pressures.
Jonah said "do not touch it with a 10-ft pole" and compared Near to a "money vacuum," citing past crashes and hype-driven narratives. Near's AI narrative (intents) is seen as unconvincing, and oversupply of altcoins crowds out investment merit. AVOID because it lacks sustainable value capture, with high risk of capital loss based on historical performance. If Near delivers on AI promises or gains unexpected adoption, it could outperform, but this is deemed unlikely.
Avi said "I'm very bullish on Sky" (rebrand of Maker Dao), noting it's up this year with strong revenue and TVL ($21B). As a decentralized stablecoin issuer, Sky benefits from the stablecoin adoption trend and has critical mass, making it a pure play. LONG because it's a direct bet on stablecoin growth with attractive fundamentals like daily buybacks and low market cap. Stablecoin adoption stalls, or regulatory issues impact decentralized protocols.
Avi stated "Curve is totally cooked" and argued that stablecoin trading is over, with decentralized swaps being less convenient. Curve faces competition from centralized options like Hyperliquid, and its stablecoin (USDS) may not gain significant adoption. AVOID because Curve's utility has diminished, and it's unlikely to recover in a market shifting towards easier trading platforms. If decentralized stablecoin trading resurges or Curve innovates, it could rebound, but this is considered improbable.
Avi discussed Galaxy as a laggard trading at $23 (down from $40), with potential if crypto and AI data center narratives rebound. Galaxy's performance is tied to Bitcoin and its Helios data center repurposing for AI, but timing and monetization are uncertain. WATCH because it could offer a spicy trade if conditions improve, but risks remain due to earnings volatility and street skepticism. AI data center delays or continued poor earnings could further depress the stock.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published March 17, 2026, features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg discussing BTC, HYPE, ETH, HOOD, NEAR, SKY, CRV, GLXY. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg · Tickers: BTC, HYPE, ETH, HOOD, NEAR, SKY, CRV, GLXY