Everything You Need to Know About Oil
Speakers
Avi Felman — Host / Investor
— 1000x Podcast co-host, Radhan Road partner
Jonah Van Bourg — Former VTOL Partner / Oil Trader
— 1000x Podcast co-host, ex-Cumberland/Goldman trader
Summary
- The recent massive whipsaw in oil prices (spiking to $120 and crashing 30% in a day) was driven by transient geopolitical fears regarding the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbated by physical oil traders selling to lock in accidental profits from their long gamma exposure.
- The fundamental physical oil market is actually facing a severe supply glut, making the geopolitical risk premium a prime fading opportunity.
- The US/Israel military actions against Iran and Venezuela are interpreted as a strategic move to cut off China's access to cheap, secure oil, effectively dismantling the "multipolar world" thesis.
- A return to American geopolitical hegemony is expected to drive capital out of emerging markets and gold, flooding back into US equities, domestic semiconductor manufacturing, and US-aligned assets like Bitcoin.
- Geopolitical froth is providing generational buy-the-dip entry points for mega-trend assets like rare earth minerals, uranium, and Israeli equities.
Trade Ideas
I think that gold is a less good investment today than it was yesterday... the whole thesis behind gold is that if we're going into a multipolar world, people are going to want to be less exposed to America. Gold's recent bull run was heavily predicated on the rise of a multipolar world where countries diversify away from the US dollar. With the US successfully dismantling China's allied network (Iran/Venezuela), the multipolar thesis is breaking down, reducing the structural demand for gold. AVOID because the geopolitical landscape is shifting back toward US dominance, undermining the primary macro tailwind for gold. US inflation re-accelerates or the US dollar debases rapidly, driving gold demand regardless of the geopolitical power structure.
Bitcoin is going to be extremely valuable um actually specifically because of the return of American strength because Bitcoin is very tied closely to the Trump regime. The current US administration is highly favorable to digital assets. A swift and successful resolution to the Middle East conflict strengthens the administration's political capital globally, which indirectly provides a safer, more supportive regulatory environment for major cryptocurrencies. LONG because geopolitical dips offer cheap entries into crypto assets that are fundamentally supported by the current US political regime. A broader macroeconomic liquidity contraction or unexpected regulatory crackdowns outside the US could suppress digital asset prices.
What I do think is still very valuable, uranium, because we're still going to be pushing forward on energy production. The geopolitical conflict highlights the vulnerability of global energy supply chains. To ensure sovereignty and meet growing power demands, Western nations will accelerate their adoption of nuclear energy, creating a sustained demand shock for uranium. LONG because the macro necessity for secure, baseload energy production makes uranium a resilient mega-trend regardless of short-term geopolitical noise. A major nuclear accident could instantly halt global reactor development and destroy the political will for nuclear energy expansion.
I'm very very very bullish on US equities now. I think that money is going to come flooding back in because I think that this war is going to be over very soon. By neutralizing Iran and Venezuela, the US is cutting off China's proxy network and re-establishing unipolar American hegemony. This will cause global capital to flee emerging markets and rotate heavily back into US equities as the premier safe haven and growth engine. LONG because the resolution of the Middle East conflict will solidify US global dominance and trigger massive capital inflows into American markets. The conflict escalates or drags on longer than expected, causing prolonged uncertainty and delayed capital rotation.
This war gave you a phenomenal entry on Intel. Intel is going to 80 bucks. We're going to be pumping out American chips. Geopolitical conflicts create temporary market dips that offer discounted entries into long-term mega-trends. The US government's mandate to onshore semiconductor manufacturing for national security ensures massive structural support for domestic chipmakers. LONG because transient war fears have temporarily mispriced a company that is central to the US national security and re-industrialization agenda. The company fails to execute on its foundry turnaround strategy or loses further market share to competitors before government subsidies can bridge the gap.
I think we got a good entry on the Tel Aviv stock exchange too. It's off 10 15% on this. It's going to go right back to the highs once this is over. Markets have aggressively priced in existential war risk into Israeli equities. As the conflict resolves with a decisive victory that degrades hostile proxies, the risk premium will vanish, causing a rapid mean-reversion in the local stock market. LONG because the underlying economy remains intact and the current discount is purely driven by temporary kinetic conflict. The war expands into a multi-front, protracted conflict that severely damages domestic infrastructure and economic output.
The only thing you're looking at on screen when you see $88 a barrel is you're seeing geopolitical risk. This thing is worth 50... if you can find a way to get short oil without getting your nuts blown off, you should do it. The spike in oil prices is entirely driven by transient geopolitical fears regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Because the US and Israel can guarantee maritime transit and the physical market is actually facing a supply glut, the geopolitical premium will evaporate, causing prices to crash back to fundamental levels. SHORT because the underlying physical market is oversupplied and the geopolitical risk premium is artificial and temporary. An unexpected, successful kinetic closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could cause a massive short squeeze and catastrophic global economic impacts.
I've been talking about Ramx since $65. It is now 98. I'm still bullish. I think it's going to 200. As the US aggressively decouples from China and reasserts its own industrial and energy independence, securing domestic and allied supply chains for strategic metals becomes a top priority, driving massive capital into rare earth miners. LONG because rare earth minerals are a critical bottleneck for modern technology and defense, and Western governments will heavily subsidize this sector to break Chinese monopolies. China floods the market with cheap rare earth minerals to bankrupt Western competitors, or new technologies reduce the need for these specific metals.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published March 10, 2026, features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg discussing GLD, BTC, ETH, URA, SPY, QQQ, INTC, EIS, USO, REMX. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg · Tickers: GLD, BTC, ETH, URA, SPY, QQQ, INTC, EIS, USO, REMX