Shipping CEO on Hormuz Disruptions & Yardeni's 35% Meltdown Warning | Open Interest 3/10/2026
Speakers
Ed Yardeni — President, Yardeni Research
— Yardeni Research president
Summary
- The escalating war with Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing massive volatility in energy markets, with Brent crude swinging wildly and jet fuel prices spiking up to 150%.
- Despite the geopolitical shock and supply chain disruptions, the broader equity market remains remarkably resilient, driven by underlying fundamental strength and AI enthusiasm.
- Hyperscalers are aggressively funding the AI arms race, highlighted by Amazon launching a record-setting $37B-$42B corporate bond offering to finance its infrastructure buildout.
- Ed Yardeni maintains a highly bullish long-term outlook, predicting the S&P 500 will reach 7,700 by year-end and 10,000 by the end of the decade, while forecasting Gold to hit $6,000 by year-end.
- Nancy Tengler is using the geopolitical volatility to trim defensive winners (like Walmart) and buy high-quality tech and software names that have been indiscriminately sold off.
Trade Ideas
"Amazon has kicked off a potentially record-setting corporate bond sale... targeting 37 to $42 billion... to fund its AI ambitions." Amazon's ability to easily raise massive amounts of debt in a volatile geopolitical environment demonstrates immense institutional confidence. This cheap capital allows them to aggressively build out their AI infrastructure (data centers, custom silicon) without diluting equity, solidifying AWS's competitive moat in the AI era. LONG. The market's insatiable appetite for Amazon's debt provides the company with the necessary firepower to dominate the capital-intensive AI cycle. AI investments fail to generate a sufficient return on invested capital, or a sustained high-rate environment increases the cost of future debt rollovers.
"On TSMC the juggernaut continues. The demand for AI related chips is there... TSMC sales jumped 22% in February." (Nancy Tengler also notes she owns all chip names and likes Broadcom as a "poor man's Nvidia.") The massive capital expenditure by hyperscalers (evidenced by Amazon's $40B bond raise) flows directly into the semiconductor supply chain. TSMC manufactures the physical chips, while Nvidia and Broadcom design the essential AI accelerators and networking components required for data centers. LONG. As long as hyperscalers continue their AI arms race, the foundational hardware providers are guaranteed massive, highly visible revenue streams. A macro recession forces hyperscalers to slash capex budgets, or geopolitical tensions regarding Taiwan disrupt TSMC's manufacturing capabilities.
"The move in jet fuel has been greater than the move in Brent... as some of the refiners are getting shut down. Delta does own a refinery... that should help them on the refining margin." The conflict in the Middle East is causing massive spikes in jet fuel prices, specifically blowing out refining margins. Because Delta owns its own refinery (Trainer), it is partially hedged against this specific refining margin spike, giving it a significant structural cost advantage over competing airlines that must buy jet fuel at elevated spot prices. LONG. Delta is uniquely positioned to weather the current jet fuel price shock better than its unhedged industry peers. A prolonged spike in base crude oil prices will still negatively impact Delta's bottom line, and passing higher fuel costs onto consumers via ticket hikes could destroy travel demand.
"I'm still using 6000 by the end of the year. I'm still using 10,000 by the end of the decade... It's a good diversifier." Geopolitical instability, such as the freezing of Russian central bank assets and the ongoing war in the Middle East, is driving structural demand for non-fiat stores of wealth. Gold serves as a premier long-term hedge against both inflation and the fragmentation of the global financial system. LONG. Gold is in a structural, multi-year bull market driven by central bank buying and persistent geopolitical shocks. A rapid, peaceful resolution to global conflicts or a hawkish Federal Reserve driving real yields significantly higher could pressure gold prices.
"The company was vehemently insistent that they were going to defend the triple B rating of the debt... I believe in the management team, and I believe they are pretty savvy operators." The market is currently punishing Oracle (widening CDS spreads, stock sell-offs) due to fears over its high debt load and negative free cash flow related to AI capex. However, Oracle has a proven history of successfully navigating major tech transitions (like the shift to the cloud). If management successfully defends the investment-grade rating and AI investments begin yielding productivity gains, the stock will re-rate higher. LONG. The short-term panic over Oracle's debt profile creates a compelling buying opportunity for a company with a sticky enterprise customer base and a growing AI infrastructure business. Oracle fails to generate sufficient cash flow from its AI investments, leading to a credit downgrade and significantly higher borrowing costs.
"We trim [Walmart] back and we look for undervalued opportunities. Spotify and ServiceNow have been clobbered by the market... We add to the names of the highest quality companies." During periods of macro panic (such as the recent Middle East escalation), high-quality software and consumer tech names often sell off indiscriminately as investors rush to safety. This provides a strategic window to reallocate capital from defensive outperformers (like Walmart) into high-growth tech leaders at a discount. LONG. Buying best-in-class tech and software companies during geopolitical dip-selling has historically generated strong returns once the immediate panic subsides. A sustained period of high inflation and high interest rates could further compress the valuation multiples of high-growth tech stocks.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 10, 2026, features Ed Ludlow, Savanthi Syth, Ed Yardeni, Nancy Tengler discussing AMZN, TSM, NVDA, AVGO, DAL, GLD, ORCL, NOW, AAPL, SPOT. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Ed Ludlow, Savanthi Syth, Ed Yardeni, Nancy Tengler · Tickers: AMZN, TSM, NVDA, AVGO, DAL, GLD, ORCL, NOW, AAPL, SPOT