Trading The $100 Oil Rally
Speakers
Avi Felman -- Host
— 1000x Podcast co-host, Radhan Road partner
Jonah Van Bourg -- Host
— 1000x Podcast co-host, ex-Cumberland/Goldman trader
Summary
- Bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum due to a technical breakout above $70k, exhausted sellers, and the stable coin narrative driving adoption.
- Hyperliquid is highlighted as a superior trading platform that gives retail an edge by allowing weekend/overnight trading (e.g., in oil) while large institutions are locked out.
- Stable coin adoption is a core macro thesis; Sky (Maker Dao rebrand) is favored as a direct bet due to its revenue, TVL, and buybacks, while Circle's high valuation is viewed with skepticism despite its growth potential.
- Bearish on the broader altcoin ecosystem due to infinite, frictionless supply creation via platforms like pump.fun, which crowds out projects even with merit.
- Specific assets to avoid include Near Protocol (seen as a hype-driven "shitcoin" without substance) and Curve (viewed as obsolete for stable coin swaps).
- The geopolitical panic from the Iran conflict is considered overblown; the belief is that oil prices (e.g., a spike above $120) would force global intervention to reopen trade routes, limiting sustained impact.
- Post-conflict, a rotation into previously battered assets is expected: software, large-cap tech (e.g., Google), and crypto-related equities like Robinhood and Galaxy are seen as rebound plays.
- Overall market sentiment is judged as excessively fearful ("wall of worry"), creating a contrarian opportunity to accumulate quality assets.
Trade Ideas
Avi states he is "bullish on Bitcoin," believes sellers are exhausted, and notes it has broken out of its range above $70k. The geopolitical panic failed to cause a deep or sustained dip, and the technical breakout suggests upward momentum is resuming. LONG because the breakout from a multi-week range indicates a likely rally towards $85k-$90k. A failure to hold the breakout, specifically a fall back below $69k, would invalidate the setup and could lead to new lows.
Jonah states Hyperliquid is "going to eat finance" and praises its product, noting it allows retail to trade assets like oil when traditional futures markets are closed. It provides a unique advantage (24/7 trading) that even large institutions currently lack due to regulatory barriers, creating a period of asymmetric opportunity for retail. LONG because its utility drives user adoption and revenue, and it is seen as a leading indicator for trading activity in related assets. Regulatory changes that allow institutions to trade on the platform, eroding the retail edge, or failure to scale.
Avi says "Ethereum looks phenomenal" and attributes its strength to the stable coin adoption narrative. The growing use and revenue from stable coins (like USDC) directly benefit the Ethereum network where they are primarily issued and used. LONG because Ethereum is the primary platform for stable coin activity, which is seen as a major growth driver for crypto. A breakdown in the ETH/BTC ratio or a failure of stable coin adoption to continue accelerating.
Avi states that "once Bitcoin gets rip roaring again... Hood can easily go back to $120," from around $77. Robinhood's trading revenue is highly correlated with crypto market activity; a sustained crypto rally would drive increased user engagement and profitability. LONG as a leveraged, high-beta play on a recovery in retail crypto trading momentum. A failure of crypto markets to sustain their rally, or regulatory pressures impacting Robinhood's crypto operations.
Avi states that post-Iran fears, assets that got hit by both AI and Iran fears—specifically software companies and large-cap tech—will start doing really well. The dissipation of the dominant geopolitical fear is expected to cause a rotation of risk appetite back into growth-oriented tech and software sectors that sold off previously. LONG because the sector is poised for a rebound as the primary "wall of worry" (Iran/oil) recedes, creating a gap before the next fear emerges. A significant escalation in the Iran conflict or a rapid return of "AI fears" that dampen sentiment.
Jonah calls Near a "money vacuum" and compares it to a "shitcoin," dismissing its "intents" narrative as irrelevant compared to centralized AI token generation. The thesis is based on hype rather than proven tokenomic demand or revenue; it lacks the fundamental buyback-driven value accrual seen in other assets. AVOID because capital is likely to be lost chasing a narrative that doesn't translate to sustainable value or price appreciation. The "intents" narrative gains unexpected traction and drives substantial, sustained adoption.
Avi is "very bullish on Sky" (Maker Dao rebrand), citing its annualized revenue (~$200-420M), growing TVL ($7.5B), and daily buybacks. If stable coin adoption explodes as predicted, Sky is a pure-play way to gain exposure as a decentralized issuer and beneficiary of that growth, unlike the equity of centralized issuers. LONG because it is a fundamental picks-and-shovels play on the stable coin trend with attractive tokenomics (buybacks) and a first-mover advantage. Failure to grow TVL and revenue, or competitive pressure from other stable coin models.
Avi states "Curve is totally cooked" and that he doesn't think anyone is using it for stable coin swaps anymore. The utility for decentralized stable coin swapping has been eroded by more user-friendly centralized options (like Hyperliquid) and widespread availability elsewhere. AVOID because the protocol is seen as obsolete in its core function, with little prospect for a revival in usage or fees. A major resurgence in demand for non-custodial stable coin liquidity that exclusively favors Curve's model.
Jonah identifies Galaxy as a laggard, noting it traded above $40 and is now at ~$23, and questions why it wouldn't rebound with crypto and AI narratives. Its valuation is heavily tied to the success of its Helios AI data center project and broader crypto market performance; a crypto rebound could lift the stock. WATCH because it is a high-risk, reflexive asset that could see a sharp move if sentiment turns, but its fundamental pivot to AI data centers remains unproven. The AI data center initiative fails to monetize effectively, or the company continues to post losses despite a crypto rally.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published March 18, 2026, features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg discussing BTC, HYPE, ETH, HOOD, XLK, NEAR, SKY, CRV, GLXY. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg · Tickers: BTC, HYPE, ETH, HOOD, XLK, NEAR, SKY, CRV, GLXY