Kaledora Kiernan-Linn 5.0 3 ideas

Kaledora reported that Ostium traders have been net long oil since January as part of a stagflation trade. Her macro thesis outlines a stagflationary environment with higher inflation and geopolitical risks, which historically supports oil prices. LONG on oil due to the alignment of trader positioning with her stagflation view and the implied validity of the thesis. A rapid resolution of geopolitical tensions or a sharp drop in inflation could undermine oil demand and prices.

She stated that Ostium traders have been net long gold since January, expressing a stagflation view. Gold serves as a traditional hedge against inflation and uncertainty, which are central to her macro outlook. LONG on gold as a safe-haven asset expected to benefit from persistent inflationary and geopolitical pressures. If inflation is quickly tamed or global stability improves, gold's appeal could diminish.

She noted that Ostium traders have been lightly short the S&P since January as part of the stagflation trade. Stagflation typically harms equity markets due to rising costs and slowing growth, making short positions logical under her thesis. SHORT on S&P due to the anticipated stagflationary headwinds for equities. If the economy avoids stagflation and enters a robust growth phase, equities could rally strongly.