Why Perps Are Taking Over | Kaledora Kiernan-Linn
Speakers
Avi Felman -- Host
— 1000x Podcast co-host, Radhan Road partner
Summary
- Kaledora Kiernan-Linn transitioned from professional ballet to finance, highlighting translatable skills like long-term focus, discipline, and adapting from perfectionism to "good enough" decision-making.
- Core macro thesis: A post-COVID paradigm shift characterized by persistently higher inflation, unpredictable interest rates, and geopolitical instability is driving fundamental changes in trading behavior.
- This environment favors event-driven trading (including second-order effects) and cross-asset strategies, with macro news becoming the primary volatility driver.
- Perpetual contracts ("perps") are identified as the dominant future instrument for this trend due to their simplicity and ability to abstract cross-asset complexity.
- Ostium is built for "prosumer" or "pro-tail" traders who are cross-asset by default, targeting individuals moving significant size and wanting to trade assets like Bitcoin, gold, oil, and equities in one place.
- Ostium's architectural thesis: The biggest DeFi opportunity is not rebuilding exchange liquidity from scratch but extending existing liquid markets on-chain (akin to stablecoins for the dollar), offering instant settlement and transparency.
- Platform data shows traders on Ostium have expressed a stagflation view since January: net long oil, net long gold, and lightly short S&P.
- Kaledora observes alpha in being "super online," as understanding internet sentiment and viral loops provides an edge in current reflexive, momentum-driven markets.
- The future of trading involves the "perpification of everything" and the breakdown of asset-class segmentation among traders.
- Ostium's current user base skews towards larger individual traders ("whales") due to execution needs, with consumer distribution still evolving.
Trade Ideas
Kaledora reported that Ostium traders have been net long oil since January as part of a stagflation trade. Her macro thesis outlines a stagflationary environment with higher inflation and geopolitical risks, which historically supports oil prices. LONG on oil due to the alignment of trader positioning with her stagflation view and the implied validity of the thesis. A rapid resolution of geopolitical tensions or a sharp drop in inflation could undermine oil demand and prices.
She stated that Ostium traders have been net long gold since January, expressing a stagflation view. Gold serves as a traditional hedge against inflation and uncertainty, which are central to her macro outlook. LONG on gold as a safe-haven asset expected to benefit from persistent inflationary and geopolitical pressures. If inflation is quickly tamed or global stability improves, gold's appeal could diminish.
She noted that Ostium traders have been lightly short the S&P since January as part of the stagflation trade. Stagflation typically harms equity markets due to rising costs and slowing growth, making short positions logical under her thesis. SHORT on S&P due to the anticipated stagflationary headwinds for equities. If the economy avoids stagflation and enters a robust growth phase, equities could rally strongly.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published April 02, 2026, features Kaledora Kiernan-Linn discussing WTI, GOLD, S&P. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Kaledora Kiernan-Linn · Tickers: WTI, GOLD, S&P