Bubbleboi put new US AI power needs near 21 GW versus a ~40 GW consensus; Nscale is reportedly in talks on a second ~$45B Anthropic deal as IPO valuation talk falls to ~$1.5T; Jefferies checks put OpenAI's 2027 custom ASIC demand above 3M units; Citi called the AI cloud pullback a financing story.
Bubbleboi argued the AI power shortage the market started pricing over the past week is overstated. Backing out roughly 30% of shipments going outside the US and Blackwell racks swapped for Rubin racks at the same power, they put new US power needed near 21 GW. On supply, they cited ERCOT at about 10 GW in 2027 and 17 GW in 2028, plus reciprocating engines and converted crypto miners.
Per Bloomberg, relayed by @firstadopter, Nscale is in talks to sell Anthropic about $45 billion of computing power for a second facility at its Monarch campus in West Virginia, on top of existing agreements worth up to about $44.6 billion. Per Reuters, IPO valuation expectations for Anthropic fell to about $1.5 trillion from $2 trillion as Q3 revenue growth slowed to 45% quarter on quarter. Bubbleboi said it is worth $800 billion at most.
Per Jefferies, relayed by @pequityresearch, OpenAI recently raised its 2027 custom ASIC demand to more than 3 million units from a previously assumed 1 million, and Jefferies thinks Anthropic launched a first ASIC project with Broadcom, expected to tape out in mid-2027 and reach mass production in 2H28. KeyBanc, relayed by the same account, expects Marvell to win Maia 400 over MediaTek and Broadcom, with Maia 300 shipping about 500,000 units next year.
Citi software analyst Tyler Radke called the pullback in AI-linked cloud names primarily a financing story rather than a demand problem, with rising long-term yields pressuring anything below investment grade while GPU rental pricing sits at records. Morgan Stanley's Carolyn Campbell said securitized data-center issuance is near last year's pace but trails what demand implies, and favors colocation assets. JPMorgan, per Bloomberg, called CoreWeave debt concerns likely overdone.
Finphysnerd closed QQQ and SMH shorts and lowered IWM exposure, saying they think the market is bottoming and are keeping net long exposure.
Babyfolio said CBRS is getting very close and any allocation would be small given massive execution risk and ramp hurdles; damnang2 said it now trades close to their fair value framework and is keeping a close eye on it.
Temple_eight added to a Nasdaq short position on the recovery and called the index fragile given the negative gamma profile in options.
Bubbleboi said memory is probably a short for the rest of this year and next, and that the whole WFE tied to memory is cooked.