Morgan Stanley's Asia team cut its AMD GPU forecast 43%, Lumentum's CEO called purchase agreements largely noncancellable, CXMT's DRAM capacity is seen rising 31% next year, and Nextdc requested a trading halt over a delayed data-center power supply.
Per @pequityresearch, Morgan Stanley revised its 2026-2030 AMD GPU demand forecast from 14.1 million units to 8.0 million, a 43.3% cut, while keeping Nvidia's unchanged. The account later relayed an explanation that the numbers come from MS Asia, at 600k, 1.3m and 1.9m for 2026-2028, versus 672k, 1.1m and 1.4m from Joe Moore's US coverage. Jukan called long-range demand forecasting absurd.
Serenity relayed a Lumentum CEO interview saying its purchase agreements are, to a large degree, noncancellable and that demand has "no end in sight". Expert takeaways posted by @pequityresearch project Applied Optoelectronics' 800G shipments rising from 600K-700K this year to 5 million next year, driven by AWS and Oracle. Serenity's own AAOI revenue ramp estimate reaches $2.14B in Q1 2028 against a $6.8B market cap.
Per @pequityresearch, Counterpoint Research and TrendForce expect CXMT's monthly DRAM wafer capacity to grow from about 320,000 to 420,000 next year; the industry expects 500,000-600,000 by the end of 2028. CXMT expects up to US$19.8 billion in net income over three quarters and committed to share repurchases, per SCMP. Separately, @tengyanAI's tracker shows weekly 32GB DDR5 server-module spot gains slowing from +8.1% on Sep 7 to +0.6% on Oct 12.
Nextdc requested an immediate trading halt as it assesses the financial impact of delayed power supply at a Melbourne data center, including possible implications for its fiscal 2027 guidance, per Bloomberg. A ZeroHedge headline said Microsoft walked from Nscale's UK deal as IPO investors slashed its $30 billion ask in half. FUNDA said neolab funding could support roughly six to twelve months of spending before more capital is needed.
@liwei_twcapital wrote they are sprinting to add to MRVL, saying the optical sector has some secret catalysts in the oven.
One r/wallstreetbets commenter put $80k into a long gold position last week and said they are buying more gold tomorrow.
Serenity sees an H1 2027 inflection point as pretty close but flags a lot of execution risk and is personally waiting.
@tengyanAI says Q4 price guidance from SK hynix on Oct 28 and SanDisk on Oct 29 will show whether last week's memory selling was ahead of the data.
@temple_eight shorted the bounce in Nasdaq futures.
@paradislabs quoted Bank of America leaning risk-off for the next 3-4 weeks given 3% real yields, and read low confidence in Q3 earnings re-rating semis.