Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit research posts sized Axon's Flock backlash and questioned Carvana's ABS cushions, while two commenters disclosed gold positions.
Themes on this desk
Gold hedges
Two r/wallstreetbets commenters disclosed gold exposure: one put $80k into a long gold position last week, and another bought GLD January 385 calls betting gold bottoms near current levels.
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by score · day changeAn Axon sum-of-the-parts model sizes the Flock backlash at $732M of terminal revenue, or 2.4%
The bottom-up model concludes the privacy backlash threatens only about 2.4% of 2036 revenue, leaving the investment case intact and supporting a Buy rating.
Axon ($AXON): Sizing the Flock backlash with a full sum-of-the-parts — $732M of terminal revenue, or 2.4% The question around
The model treats the Flock backlash as a small share of long-run revenue.
Source →The market prices this like a science project. Shell, TotalEnergies and PepsiCo disagree. ($ADUR)
The author, a long-time large holder, argues Aduro Clean Technologies is oversold after a 40%+ drawdown despite technical validation from Shell/TotalEnergies, a signed offtake LOI and a debt-free C$65.75M cash pile funding a licensing model.
The market prices this like a science project. Shell, TotalEnergies and PepsiCo disagree. ($ADUR) \​Source →
ARN (A1N): the Sandilands settlement, the KIIS ratings since, and the 4.3% the impairment model needs
Detailed bearish research on ARN Media arguing its impairment assumptions require market-share gains that look hard given collapsing KIIS Sydney breakfast ratings, with February results and litigation as catalysts.
ARN (A1N): the Sandilands settlement, the KIIS ratings since, and the 4.3% the impairment model needs Went back through ARN’sSource →
A Carvana ABS review says weakness may have appeared in the N-tranches
The author argues the credit cushions were designed for a different set of economic conditions and that credit deterioration in the ABS could signal future company weakness.
Counter-parties and Risk: Analyzing Carvana’s Raw ABS Data from the SEC (Pt. 2) TL;DR:
The securitization waterfall is the author's read on Carvana's counterparty risk.
Source →After 9 red days in chips, can Meta and Tesla rescue the AI trade?
Author argues the nine-day chip selloff reflects crowded positioning rather than fading AI demand, citing record ASML/TSMC results, and plans to stay invested while slowly adding to quality names on weakness.
After 9 red days in chips, can Meta and Tesla rescue the AI trade?Source →
Most argued
by comments per upvoteHindware is demerging its consumer and building businesses into two companies
The consumer segment (HHIL Limited) is being separated from the profitable building segment (Hindware Ltd.), and the consumer arm lends to the building arm.
Hindware is demerging its consumer and building Biz into two cos **Hindware Home Innovation** is demerging it's consumer segment into
The post points to listing timing and upside for the separated companies.
Watch Listing timing.
Source →A commenter argues AI capex is a bubble as costs grow faster than revenue
The commenter says cash flows are deteriorating at META, MSFT, GOOGL and AMZN, and that open models with niche datasets could achieve the same with far less compute.
Disagree. Costs spiraling and growing exponentially faster than revenue. Classic bubble sign. Cash flows keep deteriorating.
The argument centers the bear case on hyperscaler cash flows.
Source →A post relays New Constructs' bearish case against a $2T Anthropic IPO
The case cites losses, obligations, cash burn, no moat and insider exit liquidity.
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Could Be the Biggest Insider Cash-Out in History.
The post frames the listing as a potential insider cash-out.
Source →A commenter forecasts a 2-3x move in Micron over 2-4 years
The commenter argues memory is early in a multi-year upcycle, comparing it to NVDA and TSMC in early 2024.
lol memory today is where Nvidia and TSMC was in early 2024.
The thesis rests on Micron's revenue and profits growing over several years.
Source →A poster contrasts 1987's two-session crash recovery with the 15 years the 2000 Nasdaq drop took
The author says a slow decline worries them more given AI spending dependence, while holding a broad index and cash.
1987's crash mostly recovered in 2 sessions but the 2000 Nasdaq drop took 15 yrs Today is the anniversary of
The author says a slow decline would worry them more than a sharp crash.
Source →