ST STLD Steel Dynamics Inc Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Prefer Nucor and Steel Dynamics on resilience.

Nucor and Steel Dynamics resilient.

Steel Dynamics keeps edge without trade deal

U.S. steel and aluminum shares fell sharply after a report that the U.S.

Watch Steel Dynamics on US mill capex.

Management is highly optimistic on near-term performance driven by steel pricing improvements, strong fabrication backlogs, and rapid ramp of the aluminum mill, with confidence that recent growth projects will add over $1.4 billion in through-cycle EBITDA.

Steel Dynamics reported Q2 2026 earnings with net sales of 6.18 billion dollars beating.

Steel Dynamics reports second quarter revenue of 6.09 billion dollars beating estimates of 5.57.

US pre-market movers show Intel up 9% on Trump's comment about Apple working with Intel.

Hold great steel company.

Avoid CLF/NUE/STLD/AA as rising PJM power costs and volatility increase operating expenses.

Nucor's new West Virginia sheet mill is set to begin commissioning in Q2 2026, with a target of running at ~50% capacity by end of 2027, adding to domestic supply. — The new mill will ramp up supply in a key sheet-consuming region, increasing competition and potentially pressuring pricing over the medium term.

The company is lowering its forward-looking profit guidance.

"looking at things through the lens of, you know, allegations of excess manufacturing capacity, overcapacity." US domestic manufacturers, particularly in heavy industries like steel and aluminum, have historically suffered from foreign dumping. By utilizing Section 301 to target foreign overcapacity, the US government will effectively price out cheap foreign competition. This gives domestic producers significant pricing power, higher margins, and increased market share without needing to increase their own operational efficiency. LONG US domestic steel and heavy manufacturing equities as the administration builds a legally sound protectionist wall. The probes will take months to conclude and could be watered down; retaliatory tariffs could increase costs for US companies relying on imported raw materials.

The Supreme Court struck down Trump's executive tariffs on Friday. However, Republicans are discussing a "Second Reconciliation Bill" to codify these tariffs into law. The market may have priced in a "tariff relief" trade post-SCOTUS ruling. If Congress moves to legislate the tariffs back into existence via Reconciliation (which bypasses the filibuster), domestic steel and manufacturing stocks (X, NUE) will rally, while importers will suffer. WATCH Legislative calendar for Reconciliation bill news. GOP infighting (thin majority) prevents the bill from passing.

Liesman notes the President's goal is to bring manufacturing into the US, but argues, "Only a stable tariff regime can result in that kind of investment." Domestic manufacturers (Steel, Industrials) theoretically benefit from protectionism. However, the "Second-Order Effect" of the 150-day limit is that no CEO will build a new US factory based on a tariff that might expire in 5 months. The *thesis* is bullish, but the *mechanism* (Section 122) is too temporary to trigger the CapEx boom these stocks need. WATCH. Wait for Congress to potentially lock these tariffs in for the long term before buying the "Reshoring" trade. If the 150-day period expires without renewal, foreign competition floods back in, hurting domestic pricing power.

Bessent noted that "a number of 232 and Section 301 tariff investigations will be started." Section 232 investigations specifically target national security grounds for tariffs, historically used to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries. The combination of a 10% global tariff plus renewed 232 protections creates a pricing umbrella for US producers to raise prices and gain market share from foreign competitors. LONG US Steel and Aluminum producers as primary beneficiaries of protectionist industrial policy. Retaliatory tariffs from trading partners could hurt global demand for industrial goods.

"Effective immediately all national security tariffs under Section 232... Remain in place... impose a 10% global tariff... over and above." Section 232 specifically protects the domestic steel and aluminum industries. By keeping these in place AND adding a 10% global surcharge, foreign competitors become significantly more expensive. This gives domestic manufacturers pricing power and market share dominance. LONG US Steel producers and Domestic Manufacturing (Industrials). Retaliatory tariffs from other countries could hurt US manufacturers who export finished goods; global economic slowdown reducing demand for raw materials.

Trump states he imposed "powerful 50% tariffs on foreign steel" and ended Biden-era exemptions, specifically citing a resurgence at Kusa Steel due to these policies. A 50% tariff wall effectively prices out foreign competition (China, Canada mentioned), giving US domestic producers pricing power and volume guarantees. The specific mention of "steel racks and plates" indicates broad industrial steel demand. Long domestic steel producers who benefit from the artificial price floor and reduced import competition. Retaliatory tariffs from trade partners impacting US exports; potential inflation in construction costs dampening demand.

Nucor's steel mill backlogs are up nearly 40% year-over-year, and its structural group backlog is a record, signaling sustained strength in non-residential construction and infrastructure. — The record backlogs in steel mills and structural products indicate that demand for construction and infrastructure steel remains robust, which is a positive leading indicator for other producers.

Management is confident about improving steel pricing into 2026, driven by trade actions, low inventories, and reshoring, while aluminum ramp is on track for near-term breakeven.