Bessent Says Tariff Revenue Will Be Little Changed in 2026

Bessent noted that "a number of 232 and Section 301 tariff investigations will be started." Section 232 investigations specifically target national security grounds for tariffs, historically used to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries. The combination of a 10% global tariff plus renewed 232 protections creates a pricing umbrella for US producers to raise prices and gain market share from foreign competitors. LONG US Steel and Aluminum producers as primary beneficiaries of protectionist industrial policy. Retaliatory tariffs from trading partners could hurt global demand for industrial goods.

The administration is implementing a "global tariff of 10%" and Bessent confirmed "tariff revenue will be little changed," implying a commitment to maintaining high barriers. Broad tariffs are structurally bullish for the domestic currency. They reduce imports (improving the trade balance) and often force foreign central banks to devalue their currencies to remain competitive against the tariff wall. Furthermore, the inflationary impact of tariffs may force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. LONG US Dollar as the mechanism to adjust for trade imbalances. If other nations implement retaliatory tariffs that specifically target US exports, the net benefit to the dollar could be neutralized.