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· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Bubbleboi argued the US AI power gap is much smaller than consensus, Jefferies checks relayed by @pequityresearch put OpenAI's 2027 custom ASIC demand above 3 million units, and Bloomberg reported a second Nscale-Anthropic compute deal in talks.
Themes on this desk
AI power
Bubbleboi estimated about 21 GW of new US power is actually needed after backing out upgrades and exports, against a ~40 GW consensus, and said ERCOT additions, reciprocating engines and converted miners should more than cover it.
Anthropic
Bloomberg reported Nscale in talks on a second Anthropic deal worth about $45 billion, while Reuters reported IPO valuation expectations falling to about $1.5 trillion.
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Market Radar →Bloomberg: Nscale in talks on a second Anthropic compute deal worth about $45 billion
Per Bloomberg, Nscale is in talks to sell Anthropic computing power worth about $45 billion for a second facility at its Monarch campus in West Virginia, on top of agreements worth up to about $44.6 billion.
Anthropic and neoclouds are doomed. Dooooooooooomed. Oh wait. Anthropic wants another $45 billion ON TOP of $45 billion.
@firstadopter reads it as Anthropic's business still ramping.
Watch Whether the second Monarch facility deal is signed.
Source →Jefferies: OpenAI raised 2027 custom ASIC demand to 3 million-plus units
Jefferies checks indicate OpenAI raised its 2027 custom ASIC demand to more than 3 million units from a previous assumption of 1 million, and Jefferies thinks Anthropic launched a first ASIC project with Broadcom.
Jefferies: our checks indicate OpenAI has recently increased its demand for custom ASICs to 3+ million units in 2027E (much
The Anthropic project is expected to tape out in mid-2027 and go to mass production in 2H28.
Watch Anthropic ASIC tape-out in mid-2027.
Source →Paradis Labs: hedge funds are more than 8% underweight tech
Hedge funds are more than 8% underweight tech versus the MSCI World Index, and since the end of July net exposure has come down almost entirely through new shorts while longs stayed steady.
Hedge funds are now >8% underweight tech vs. the MSCI World Index...
Paradis Labs says semis positioning is probably much cleaner for Q3 earnings than Q2, with semis long/short at about 3x versus about 1x for SaaS.
Watch Semis reactions to Q3 earnings.
Source →Bubbleboi says the AI power shortage is overstated
Bubbleboi argues consensus overstates the new power needed by ignoring upgrades and shipments outside the US, and cites ERCOT at about 10 GW in 2027 and 17 GW in 2028, roughly two thirds of the ~40 GW consensus need.
The AI Power Shortage Is Overstated Over the past week the market has started pricing a power shortage as a
Bubbleboi thinks accelerator shipments can hit their estimates.
Watch ERCOT capacity additions in 2027 and 2028.
Source →DeepSeek reportedly plans to pretrain on Huawei's Ascend 950DT by end-2026
Per The Information, DeepSeek plans to start pretraining on Huawei's Ascend 950DT as soon as the end of 2026, the first time a flagship Chinese model would train on domestic silicon instead of Nvidia.
NVDA: DeepSeek to pretrain on Huawei Ascend 950DT by end of 2026, first flagship Chinese model off Nvidia + DeepSeek
Liang Wenfeng told investors frontier-scale training needs about 50,000 Nvidia GB300 chips or about 200,000 Ascend 950s.
Watch Ascend 950DT shipments in Q4 2026.
Source →