Skip to report
Next edition in 545 min Oct 15, 2026, 09:00-16:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha Midday Alpha Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Midday Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What changed since premarket

AlmaCap argues Anthropic's slowdown is not a demand ceiling and Gavin Baker points to hyperscaler growth instead; TSMC's call points to a longer equipment cycle; September PPI jumped 1.3% as long-term Treasury yields fell; and Chamath reads Amazon's reported blocking of AI agents as a weaker moat.

Main narratives

day change
01

Gavin Baker argues hyperscaler growth rates, not Anthropic ARR, are now the better AI demand gauge

Anthropic's Q3 growth slowed to +45% quarter over quarter from +147% in Q2, per AlmaCap, who counters that demand is spreading across OpenAI, open-weight models, Gemini and Meta's Muse. Gavin Baker says Anthropic was FCF positive in Q3 and reaccelerating in October on Opus 5.5 per third-party data, and argues hyperscaler growth rates capture Muse, Grok, Gemini and open source. TheValueist reads more dispersed usage as bullish for AI infrastructure.

MSFT -0.5% · AMZN +0.2% · GOOGL -0.9% · META -1.4%
02

TSMC kept its 2026 budget but said 2026-2028 capex will run substantially above the prior three years

TheValueist notes TSMC reiterated a $60-64 billion 2026 capital budget, described nearly 20 fabs in progress, said 2026-2028 spending would be substantially above the preceding three years, and acknowledged tight tool supply and tool-price inflation. @aleabitoreddit relays from the Q&A that management assessed CSP capex, data-center construction and customer finances and still sees demand exceeding supply, with AI accelerator revenue growth possibly exceeding its prior 50%+ CAGR through 2029.

TSM +3.1% · AMAT +0.8% · LRCX -0.3% · KLAC +0.0%
03

September PPI posted its biggest monthly jump since March 2022 while long-term Treasury yields fell

September producer prices jumped 1.3% month over month, more than double the 0.6% expected, with annual inflation at 6.3%, per @Schuldensuehner, who says investors seem more worried about the AI selloff hurting growth than about inflation. CNBC's market-open recap notes a sharp drop in long-term Treasury yields and says the retail-sales beat came mostly from gasoline. Bloomberg says the data raise the chance the Fed acts again at its late-October meeting.

TLT +0.5%
04

Amazon is reportedly blocking AI shopping agents, and Chamath reads it as a weaker marketplace moat

Users report Amazon blocked Grok bots from ordering on its website, and Elon Musk is considering an Amazon competitor, per the Kobeissi Letter. A Shopify employee told AlphaSense that Amazon has begun redacting order details from customer emails so agents like Gemini or Muse cannot read them, and expects agent-to-agent commerce within the next year. Chamath argues merchants can sell to agents directly and ship without Amazon's take rate.

AMZN +0.2% · SHOP +1.7% · PYPL +0.8%

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
Staples Retail +5.2σ
WMT -1.2% · TGT +0.4%
8 posts 3 voices base 1.4
NeoCloud +4.8σ
CRWV +6.6% · NBIS +6.4% · IREN +1.0%
+3 more BRUN +2.7% · KEEL — · DOCN —
54 posts 30 voices base 16.9
Space +4.6σ
RKLB +2.0% · SPCX — · PL +0.3%
21 posts 14 voices base 6.7
Crypto Assets +2.7σ
STRK — · BTC — · HYPE —
+10 more PAPER — · NEAR — · SOL — · ZEC — · ETH — · STX — · FET — · ONDO — · USDC — · SUI —
46 posts 22 voices base 24.9
Foundry Equipment +2.1σ
TSM +3.1% · INTC +3.2% · ASML +1.6%
+8 more GFS — · AMAT +0.8% · 8035.T -2.6% · KLAC +0.0% · LRCX -0.3% · ASX — · FORM — · AEHR —
33 posts 21 voices base 16.6
Autos & EV +0.7σ
TSLA +3.1% · PAG +0.1% · VWAGY +1.8%
+2 more VOW3.DE — · 1211.HK —
13 posts 10 voices base 10.0
AI Memory +0.4σ
MU +1.8% · 005930.KS -3.0% · 000660.KS -4.2%
+4 more SNDK +2.7% · SKHY — · WDC — · 005935.KS -2.9%
30 posts 19 voices base 24.6
Banks +0.4σ
BK — · PNC +2.2% · USB +1.5%
+2 more UBS — · CFR —
11 posts 5 voices base 7.5
Bonds & Rates +0.3σ
TLT +0.5% · US10Y — · UKGILT +0.2%
+4 more BNDX — · LQD — · ZB=F — · ZB —
17 posts 14 voices base 14.9
AI Hardware +0.2σ
PENG — · AAPL -1.2% · DELL +7.5%
+3 more ERIC — · SMCI — · STX —
14 posts 10 voices base 13.0
Pharma & Biotech -0.0σ
MRNA +6.7% · ABVX +5.8% · 128940.KS -2.8%
+2 more 4967.T — · AZN —
9 posts 6 voices base 9.3
Equity Indexes -0.2σ
SPY +0.7% · EWY +0.8% · QQQ +0.8%
+12 more EUFN — · ES=F — · VGK — · VT — · KOSDAQ 150 — · NASDAQ — · ^KS11 — · SCHD — · EWU — · SPX — · NQ — · NDX —
27 posts 24 voices base 29.6
Retail & Mobility -0.3σ
GME +0.1% · NKE +1.4% · SHOP +1.7%
+2 more SIG — · UBER —
10 posts 9 voices base 11.6
AI ASIC -0.4σ
AVGO +1.4% · MRVL +4.7% · ARM -0.0%
+5 more CDNS -1.4% · QCOM — · SNPS -1.0% · 2454.TW — · ALAB —
9 posts 7 voices base 11.2
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

2 positions · 2 voices

Penguin Solutions

@ckcapitalxx says they sold Penguin at $77 and added at $60.8, citing about $4 a share of earnings this year, roughly 40% guided growth and 15 times earnings.

@ckcapitalxx Alpha #235 39 smart
Played $PENG well to say the least.
PENG
7d before-13.6%
since call -9.0%

Selective / waiting

2 positions · 2 voices

Fading / not buying

2 positions · 2 voices
YouTube
37 videos · 27h 26m Jensen Huang on BG2 puts the 2027 constraint in land, power and shell rather than chip demand, while Larry McDonald and Kari Firestone place the risk in debt-financed AI infrastructure. Open the desk →
X
1211 posts AlmaCap argues Anthropic's slowdown is not a demand ceiling, Gavin Baker says hyperscaler growth is the better gauge, @aleabitoreddit relays TSMC's view that demand still exceeds supply, and Chamath says merchants can sell to AI agents without Amazon's take rate. Open the desk →
Reddit
56 threads Open the desk →
Substack
11 letters Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says consumer sentiment has decoupled from spending, while Peter Schiff argues on QTR's Fringe Finance that the bond market now sets long-term borrowing costs. Open the desk →