Trump Regroups After Supreme Court Loss, Bitcoin Falls Below $65,000 | The Opening Trade 2/23/2026
Speakers
Christel Heydemann — CEO, Orange S.A.
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- Tariff Shock: President Trump imposed a 15% global tariff (up from an initial 10%) following a Supreme Court loss. This is a temporary 150-day measure, but experts warn it creates significant uncertainty. The UK and Australia lost their preferential 10% status, making them relative losers compared to Asia.
- Market Reaction: Despite the tariff news, equity markets are relatively resilient, but FX markets are moving: the Dollar is down sharply while the Yen and Euro are rallying. There is a notable rotation of US investor capital flowing into International ETFs.
- Oil Bear Case: Fitch Ratings forecasts Brent at $65/bbl, citing a massive global oversupply (supply growing 3m bpd vs demand 1m bpd) that caps any geopolitical risk premium from Iran tensions.
- Private Equity Crisis: The industry is sitting on $3.8 trillion in unsold assets, with distributions to investors at levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
- Tech Divergence: While Nvidia earnings are the key macro watch item, European tech (SAP) is struggling, whereas European Banks are seen as the true beneficiaries of AI efficiency.
Trade Ideas
While tariffs are global, speakers note that the UK and Australia are losers "at the margin," while winners could be predominantly in Asia (China, Vietnam, Indonesia). Asian currencies are performing strongly. Relative value trade. If the West (US/EU/UK) is bogged down in a trade war, Asian markets—which are seeing positive consumption data (China Lunar New Year)—become a relative safe haven for growth capital, especially with a weaker USD. LONG EMERGING MARKETS (ASIA). Trump targets specific Asian countries with even higher tariffs (e.g., 60% on China).
Bitcoin fell below $65,000. It failed to act as a hedge/safe haven over the weekend despite geopolitical turmoil. If an asset class pitched as "digital gold" falls during a weekend of Supreme Court chaos and war threats, the investment thesis is broken in the short term. It is trading as a risk asset, not a haven. SHORT BTC. Sudden liquidity injection from central banks or a pro-crypto regulatory announcement.
Fitch forecasts $65/bbl oil. Global supply grew by 3 million bpd last year while demand only grew by 1 million bpd. OPEC+ has over 4 million bpd of spare capacity. The market is structurally oversupplied. Even with high geopolitical tension (Iran/US), the risk premium is "capped" because any disruption can be easily filled by the massive glut of spare capacity. SHORT WTI / BRENT. A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz (though Fitch deems this unlikely/temporary).
Nvidia earnings are due this week. The stock has been range-bound/flatlining for months. The entire US growth narrative (and by extension, the 10-year Treasury yield) depends on Nvidia proving that AI capex is sustainable. A miss or weak guidance could trigger a massive correction in the Nasdaq and a rally in bonds. WATCH NVDA (Binary Event). N/A (Event driven).
The new 15% tariff applies globally. The UK and Australia lost their previous preferential 10% rate. The EU is pausing trade negotiations. The UK is explicitly named as a "loser" because it lost its exemption. European exporters (Germany/DAX) face a 15% hurdle on top of existing barriers. This directly hits the bottom line of export-heavy indices. SHORT UK EQUITIES / EUROPEAN EQUITIES. The 150-day tariff is blocked by courts or removed early; domestic stimulus in Europe offsets trade pain.
SAP is the worst performer in the tech sector today, down 2%. The market is rotating out of "AI Vulnerable" software. Tech and AI themes are cutting through the tariff noise, and legacy software providers like SAP are viewed as sources of funds to pay for AI infrastructure plays or defensive value. SHORT SAP. SAP announces a major AI partnership or earnings beat expectations.
Tom Mackenzie
Anchor, Bloomberg
Trump announced a 15% global tariff. Markets reacted with a "risk-off" tone in currencies, sending the Dollar down sharply and boosting the Yen and Euro. Jerry Fowler notes significant fund flows from US investors into International ETFs. The uncertainty of US trade policy combined with the "weaponization" of tariffs is causing capital flight from the US Dollar into perceived undervalued assets abroad (Europe/Asia). The tariff policy acts as a de facto devaluation mechanism for the USD. SHORT USD / LONG EUR & JPY. Trump reverses policy quickly or US yields spike aggressively, attracting capital back to the Dollar.
Charlie Wells
Bloomberg Reporter
Honeywell is buying a division of Johnson Matthey, but the deal value was cut from an expected $1.8 billion to $1.3 billion. The stock is down 15% in early trading. A massive repricing of a deal (-$500M) signals deteriorating asset quality or desperation. The market hates uncertainty and "take-unders." SHORT JMAT. Another bidder emerges or the company announces a massive buyback with the remaining proceeds.
Christel Heydemann
CEO, Orange S.A.
Orange shares are up 25% YTD. The CEO confirms cash flow will rise 12% YoY. They are consolidating the Spanish market and growing double-digits in Africa. In a volatile macro environment (tariffs/war), Orange acts as a defensive compounder. They have pricing power, are consolidating fragmented markets (Spain), and have a "moat" against AI disruption (connectivity is essential regardless of AI). LONG ORA. Regulatory blocking of further consolidation in France (SFR deal).
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 23, 2026, features Anna Edwards, Guy Johnson, Angelina Valavina, Marie-Anne Allier, Crawford Falconer, Tom Mackenzie, Charlie Wells, Christel Heydemann discussing AAXJ, BTC, WTI, NVDA, FTSE, SAP, EUR, JPY, JMAT, ORA. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Anna Edwards, Guy Johnson, Angelina Valavina, Marie-Anne Allier, Crawford Falconer, Tom Mackenzie, Charlie Wells, Christel Heydemann · Tickers: AAXJ, BTC, WTI, NVDA, FTSE, SAP, EUR, JPY, JMAT, ORA