Fitch forecasts $65/bbl oil. Global supply grew by 3 million bpd last year while demand only grew by 1 million bpd. OPEC+ has over 4 million bpd of spare capacity. The market is structurally oversupplied. Even with high geopolitical tension (Iran/US), the risk premium is "capped" because any disruption can be easily filled by the massive glut of spare capacity. SHORT WTI / BRENT. A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz (though Fitch deems this unlikely/temporary).