Calls
1
Angelina Valavina
Head of Natural Resources & Commodities, Fitch Ratings
Win Rate
0.0%
return
-53.2%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
Feb 23
$80.90
-53.2%
Fitch forecasts $65/bbl oil. Global supply grew by 3 million bpd last year while demand only grew by 1 million bpd. OPEC+ has over 4 million bpd of spare capacity. The market is structurally oversupplied. Even with high geopolitical tension (Iran/US), the risk premium is "capped" because any disruption can be easily filled by the massive glut of spare capacity. SHORT WTI / BRENT. A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz (though Fitch deems this unlikely/temporary).
Fitch forecasts $65/bbl oil. Global supply grew by 3 million bpd last year while demand only grew by 1 million bpd. OPEC+ has over 4 million bpd of spare capacity. The market is structurally oversupplied. Even with high geopolitical tension (Iran/US), the risk premium is "capped" because any disruption can be easily filled by the massive glut of spare capacity. SHORT WTI / BRENT. A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz (though Fitch deems this unlikely/temporary).
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Angelina Valavina has 1 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 1 tickers since February 2026. Most covered: BNO.
