Anna Edwards

Trump's address emphasized escalation over 2-3 weeks, providing "none of the clarity that markets are craving" on the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged 6.6% to ~$107. The speech dashed hopes for a quick de-escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains "all but closed," with no clear path to reopening. The market is pricing maximum disruption over Trump's stated timeline, evidenced by an $8 gap in the prompt oil futures spread. The continued physical blockade of a critical oil chokepoint, combined with escalatory rhetoric and no diplomatic solution in sight, directly supports higher oil prices in the short term. A swift, unexpected diplomatic breakthrough that leads to the Strait reopening. A rapid coalition-led military action to secure the waterway.

While tariffs are global, speakers note that the UK and Australia are losers "at the margin," while winners could be predominantly in Asia (China, Vietnam, Indonesia). Asian currencies are performing strongly. Relative value trade. If the West (US/EU/UK) is bogged down in a trade war, Asian markets—which are seeing positive consumption data (China Lunar New Year)—become a relative safe haven for growth capital, especially with a weaker USD. LONG EMERGING MARKETS (ASIA). Trump targets specific Asian countries with even higher tariffs (e.g., 60% on China).

SAP is the worst performer in the tech sector today, down 2%. The market is rotating out of "AI Vulnerable" software. Tech and AI themes are cutting through the tariff noise, and legacy software providers like SAP are viewed as sources of funds to pay for AI infrastructure plays or defensive value. SHORT SAP. SAP announces a major AI partnership or earnings beat expectations.

Raspberry Pi stock jumped 40%+ on the narrative that AI Agents need to run on separate, secure, cheap hardware (not your main desktop). Western Digital is spinning off SanDisk, which is surging on memory chip demand. The "Year of the Agent" (2026) requires dedicated hardware and massive memory storage. This creates a specific demand shock for niche hardware makers and memory providers. LONG RPI and MEMORY SECTOR (WDC). Supply chain constraints on memory chips squeezing margins.