Anna Edwards 2.6 7 ideas

Trump's address emphasized escalation over 2-3 weeks, providing "none of the clarity that markets are craving" on the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged 6.6% to ~$107. The speech dashed hopes for a quick de-escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains "all but closed," with no clear path to reopening. The market is pricing maximum disruption over Trump's stated timeline, evidenced by an $8 gap in the prompt oil futures spread. The continued physical blockade of a critical oil chokepoint, combined with escalatory rhetoric and no diplomatic solution in sight, directly supports higher oil prices in the short term. A swift, unexpected diplomatic breakthrough that leads to the Strait reopening. A rapid coalition-led military action to secure the waterway.

Samsung and SK Hynix rallied ~10% and 9% in Asia on war optimism and data confirming memory chip prices are holding up, easing demand slowdown fears. The AI infrastructure buildout creates sustained demand for memory chips, creating a supply squeeze. A resolution in the Middle East removes a key overhang on tech spending. Positive price action and supportive fundamental data point to a strong near-term setup, warranting close monitoring. A re-escalation in the Middle East or a sharp downturn in global tech capex.

Apollo Global Management capped client redemptions at 5% in a private credit fund after clients sought 11%. This highlights a liquidity mismatch and lack of transparency in private credit valuations. The action raises the same questions asked weeks ago about stress in the private credit space. It suggests underlying asset illiquidity and potential complacency among investors about risks. AVOID the private credit space due to concerns over transparency, liquidity mismatches, and potential for hidden stress as redemption requests rise. A stabilization in markets and interest rates that reduces redemption pressure and allows funds to manage liquidity smoothly.

While tariffs are global, speakers note that the UK and Australia are losers "at the margin," while winners could be predominantly in Asia (China, Vietnam, Indonesia). Asian currencies are performing strongly. Relative value trade. If the West (US/EU/UK) is bogged down in a trade war, Asian markets—which are seeing positive consumption data (China Lunar New Year)—become a relative safe haven for growth capital, especially with a weaker USD. LONG EMERGING MARKETS (ASIA). Trump targets specific Asian countries with even higher tariffs (e.g., 60% on China).

SAP is the worst performer in the tech sector today, down 2%. The market is rotating out of "AI Vulnerable" software. Tech and AI themes are cutting through the tariff noise, and legacy software providers like SAP are viewed as sources of funds to pay for AI infrastructure plays or defensive value. SHORT SAP. SAP announces a major AI partnership or earnings beat expectations.

Raspberry Pi stock jumped 40%+ on the narrative that AI Agents need to run on separate, secure, cheap hardware (not your main desktop). Western Digital is spinning off SanDisk, which is surging on memory chip demand. The "Year of the Agent" (2026) requires dedicated hardware and massive memory storage. This creates a specific demand shock for niche hardware makers and memory providers. LONG RPI and MEMORY SECTOR (WDC). Supply chain constraints on memory chips squeezing margins.