Gerry Fowler

Chief Strategist, UBS Investment Bank
· tracked since Feb 2026
Calls 1 1 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
7d 0
30d 0
90d 0
Best Calls
No live winners yet
Worst Calls
IWM short -10.6%
Most Mentioned
IWM ×1
Recent Calls
IWM short 3 months ago
Win Rate 0% Long 0 Short 1
Win Rate
7d 0%
30d 100%
90d 0%
Average Return -10.6% Long Return - Short Return -10.6%
Average Return
7d -1.9%
30d +4.1%
90d -8.9%
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Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
Feb 12
$259.54
-10.6%
The market has been rotating into "low quality" and Small Caps, behaving as if the economy is in an "Early Cycle" phase due to expected fiscal boosts. Credit and labor markets indicate we are actually "Late Cycle." The rotation into low-quality/small-cap stocks is a head-fake. In a late-cycle environment with high tariffs and inflation risks, pricing power and high margins matter most. LONG High Quality (specifically Software/Microsoft) and SHORT/FADE the Small Cap rally. If fiscal stimulus actually resets the cycle to "Early," Small Caps will continue to rip.
The market has been rotating into "low quality" and Small Caps, behaving as if the economy is in an "Early Cycle" phase due to expected fiscal boosts. Credit and labor markets indicate we are actually "Late Cycle." The rotation into low-quality/small-cap stocks is a head-fake. In a late-cycle environment with high tariffs and inflation risks, pricing power and high margins matter most. LONG High Quality (specifically Software/Microsoft) and SHORT/FADE the Small Cap rally. If fiscal stimulus actually resets the cycle to "Early," Small Caps will continue to rip.
Macro
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