#290
Alpha Score 61.6
Brendan Murray
Trade Reporter, Bloomberg
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Mar 06
$131.41
+7.7%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has "ground to a near complete halt" with no oil shipments in the past 24 hours. 20% of world supply moves through this channel. This is not just a risk premium event; it is a physical flow stoppage. If tankers cannot move, global supply drops immediately, forcing a violent repricing of crude oil and benefiting domestic US producers who are insulated from the blockade. Long Oil Futures/ETFs and US E&P companies. Rapid ceasefire or US naval convoys successfully reopening the Strait quickly.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has "ground to a near complete halt" with no oil shipments in the past 24 hours. 20% of world supply moves through this channel. This is not just a risk premium event; it is a physical flow stoppage. If tankers cannot move, global supply drops immediately, forcing a violent repricing of crude oil and benefiting domestic US producers who are insulated from the blockade. Long Oil Futures/ETFs and US E&P companies. Rapid ceasefire or US naval convoys successfully reopening the Strait quickly.
Energy
Long
Mar 06
$359.10
-9.6%
Ocean shipping is at a standstill; companies are shifting to air freight, causing rates to rise 10-20% already. When ocean supply chains break, high-value inventory must move by air regardless of cost. This gives air freight carriers immense pricing power and volume surges, similar to the COVID era. Long Air Logistics. Fuel costs (jet fuel) rising faster than they can pass on surcharges.
Ocean shipping is at a standstill; companies are shifting to air freight, causing rates to rise 10-20% already. When ocean supply chains break, high-value inventory must move by air regardless of cost. This gives air freight carriers immense pricing power and volume surges, similar to the COVID era. Long Air Logistics. Fuel costs (jet fuel) rising faster than they can pass on surcharges.
Other
Long
Mar 06
$108.77
+29.7%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has "ground to a near complete halt" with no oil shipments in the past 24 hours. 20% of world supply moves through this channel. This is not just a risk premium event; it is a physical flow stoppage. If tankers cannot move, global supply drops immediately, forcing a violent repricing of crude oil and benefiting domestic US producers who are insulated from the blockade. Long Oil Futures/ETFs and US E&P companies. Rapid ceasefire or US naval convoys successfully reopening the Strait quickly.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has "ground to a near complete halt" with no oil shipments in the past 24 hours. 20% of world supply moves through this channel. This is not just a risk premium event; it is a physical flow stoppage. If tankers cannot move, global supply drops immediately, forcing a violent repricing of crude oil and benefiting domestic US producers who are insulated from the blockade. Long Oil Futures/ETFs and US E&P companies. Rapid ceasefire or US naval convoys successfully reopening the Strait quickly.
Energy
Long
Mar 06
$56.57
+3.8%
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has "ground to a near complete halt" with no oil shipments in the past 24 hours. 20% of world supply moves through this channel. This is not just a risk premium event; it is a physical flow stoppage. If tankers cannot move, global supply drops immediately, forcing a violent repricing of crude oil and benefiting domestic US producers who are insulated from the blockade. Long Oil Futures/ETFs and US E&P companies. Rapid ceasefire or US naval convoys successfully reopening the Strait quickly.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has "ground to a near complete halt" with no oil shipments in the past 24 hours. 20% of world supply moves through this channel. This is not just a risk premium event; it is a physical flow stoppage. If tankers cannot move, global supply drops immediately, forcing a violent repricing of crude oil and benefiting domestic US producers who are insulated from the blockade. Long Oil Futures/ETFs and US E&P companies. Rapid ceasefire or US naval convoys successfully reopening the Strait quickly.
Energy
Long
Feb 20
$74.38
+45.2%
US trade deficit with China is at a 20-year low, while deficits with Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan (record high) are surging. Tariffs are not stopping imports; they are re-routing them. Capital and manufacturing capacity are physically moving to these "connector" economies to bypass US-China friction. These countries are the structural winners of US trade policy. LONG Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan equities/currency. The US administration expanding tariffs to include these trans-shipment hubs.
US trade deficit with China is at a 20-year low, while deficits with Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan (record high) are surging. Tariffs are not stopping imports; they are re-routing them. Capital and manufacturing capacity are physically moving to these "connector" economies to bypass US-China friction. These countries are the structural winners of US trade policy. LONG Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan equities/currency. The US administration expanding tariffs to include these trans-shipment hubs.
Macro
Long
Feb 20
$81.23
-3.9%
US trade deficit with China is at a 20-year low, while deficits with Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan (record high) are surging. Tariffs are not stopping imports; they are re-routing them. Capital and manufacturing capacity are physically moving to these "connector" economies to bypass US-China friction. These countries are the structural winners of US trade policy. LONG Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan equities/currency. The US administration expanding tariffs to include these trans-shipment hubs.
US trade deficit with China is at a 20-year low, while deficits with Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan (record high) are surging. Tariffs are not stopping imports; they are re-routing them. Capital and manufacturing capacity are physically moving to these "connector" economies to bypass US-China friction. These countries are the structural winners of US trade policy. LONG Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan equities/currency. The US administration expanding tariffs to include these trans-shipment hubs.
Macro
Long
Feb 20
$19.29
-6.6%
US trade deficit with China is at a 20-year low, while deficits with Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan (record high) are surging. Tariffs are not stopping imports; they are re-routing them. Capital and manufacturing capacity are physically moving to these "connector" economies to bypass US-China friction. These countries are the structural winners of US trade policy. LONG Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan equities/currency. The US administration expanding tariffs to include these trans-shipment hubs.
US trade deficit with China is at a 20-year low, while deficits with Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan (record high) are surging. Tariffs are not stopping imports; they are re-routing them. Capital and manufacturing capacity are physically moving to these "connector" economies to bypass US-China friction. These countries are the structural winners of US trade policy. LONG Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan equities/currency. The US administration expanding tariffs to include these trans-shipment hubs.
Macro
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