VNM VanEck Vietnam ETF : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Intra-Asian trade benefits listed countries.

Intraregional Asia trade boosts India, Vietnam, Indonesia.

Moody's has identified a rising trend in Vietnamese interest rates, which will likely act as a headwind for the country's equity market by increasing the cost of capital.

"We can actually conduct these investigations under Section 301... China certainly, but also other countries, Vietnam, Southeast Asia... impose a tariff as enforcement... related to forced labor in supply chains, industrial, excessive capacity." The administration is moving from broad tariffs to targeted "Section 301" investigations. Vietnam and Southeast Asia, often seen as beneficiaries of the "China Plus One" strategy, are now explicitly in the crosshairs for transshipment and labor practices. This introduces significant regulatory risk for manufacturers in these regions exporting to the US. Avoid or Short export-dependent economies in SE Asia that have recently surged in US trade volume. Diplomatic resolutions could mitigate tariff threats; these markets may pivot successfully to non-US consumers.

While China's share of imports dropped to 40%, the Port saw a "net increase in imports to the United States from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia." The "China Plus One" strategy is no longer theoretical; it is showing up in hard shipping data. Manufacturing capacity and capital investment are flowing into Southeast Asia to bypass tariffs and geopolitical friction. These markets are the direct beneficiaries of US-China decoupling. Long Southeast Asian Emerging Markets as they capture manufacturing value added previously domiciled in China. Infrastructure bottlenecks in these developing nations could cap their ability to absorb further volume.

"Diversification is the key word... 53% of exporters said that they had opened up or were actively looking at new markets... In particular, that was areas like India, South East Asia, Vietnam, Indonesia." The US tariff wall is forcing a structural re-routing of Australian trade flows. As "Team Australia" pivots away from the US, trade volumes and economic integration with India, Vietnam, and Indonesia will accelerate. These markets are the direct beneficiaries of US protectionism as they absorb the supply capacity previously destined for the US. Long Emerging Markets (India/SE Asia) as they capture new trade volume from displaced Western allies. Global economic slowdown reducing aggregate demand in developing Asia.

The potential removal of US restrictions on advanced technologies would act as a significant catalyst for foreign investment and growth in Vietnam's tech sector and broader economy.

"All of those agreements are now reset to 10%... The European Union, which was at 15% now will be at ten. Japan was at 15% now at ten, India was at 18, now at ten, South Korea was at 15, now at ten. And Vietnam will be the big winner here. They were at 20%... They also come down to 10%." The immediate reduction in tariff rates (from as high as 20% down to 10%) acts as a massive stimulus for the export economies of these specific nations. Vietnam has the highest delta (a 1000bps cut), making it the primary beneficiary. This lowers the cost of doing business with the US and should drive equity performance in these regions. Long country-specific ETFs, overweight Vietnam (VNM). The White House explicitly stated they "reserve the right to raise those tariff rates back up" after a formal review process (90-180 days).

US trade deficit with China is at a 20-year low, while deficits with Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan (record high) are surging. Tariffs are not stopping imports; they are re-routing them. Capital and manufacturing capacity are physically moving to these "connector" economies to bypass US-China friction. These countries are the structural winners of US trade policy. LONG Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan equities/currency. The US administration expanding tariffs to include these trans-shipment hubs.

Trump explicitly praised Argentine President Milei ("endorsed him... winning in a landslide"), Indonesian President Prabowo ("tough cookie... smart"), and the leadership of Vietnam ("incredible as a country"). In a Trump administration, foreign policy favor translates to economic favor. Leaders who are "friends" of the President likely receive preferential trade terms, security guarantees, or foreign direct investment (FDI). This reduces the sovereign risk premium for these specific Emerging Markets. LONG ARGT, EIDO, and VNM as "Trump-aligned" emerging markets. US Dollar strength (DXY) could headwinds for EM currencies despite political favor.