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Feb 18
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LONG
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Tyler Radke
Citi Senior Equity Research Analyst
|
"Our favorite names are the ones that we think still have the best sort of AI stories... names like Microsoft, the big hyperscalers or names that really have exposure to this data layer." The future of the industry relies on business models that can monetize compute and data. Companies that control the "data layer" and the infrastructure (hyperscalers) are best positioned to capture value from the broadening AI trade compared to generic application software. Long the infrastructure backbone of AI software. AI adoption slowing down or regulatory scrutiny on big tech. |
CNBC
Citi's Tyler Radke: We're getting close to th...
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Feb 18
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AVOID
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Tyler Radke
Citi Senior Equity Research Analyst
|
"If you are a software company and you are not accelerating growth... and maybe you're viewed as one of these legacy software as a service businesses, I think those are going to be in the penalty box." Investors have lost patience with the "growth at all costs" model if growth is decelerating. High stock-based compensation (SBC) is drawing scrutiny. Without accelerating growth or a compelling margin story, these stocks will remain depressed and fail to participate in the recovery. Avoid companies perceived as legacy systems of record without growth catalysts. Unexpected M&A activity could spike valuations in beaten-down legacy names. |
CNBC
Citi's Tyler Radke: We're getting close to th...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Tyler Radke
Citi Senior Equity Research Analyst
|
"HubSpot one name in particular. You've actually seen that up three days in a row after some pretty indiscriminate selling." The stock's positive reaction to earnings serves as a signal that the broader software sector sell-off is nearing exhaustion. When quality names begin to decouple from the indiscriminate selling pressure, it indicates a tactical bottom for the group. Long as a leader in the software recovery. Broader macroeconomic slowdown affecting SMB spending. |
CNBC
Citi's Tyler Radke: We're getting close to th...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Tyler Radke
Citi Senior Equity Research Analyst
|
"It's actually trading at a discount to the S&P 500. It's only happened once in the last decade. That's proven to be a good buying opportunity." Microsoft occupies a unique position by dominating both the cloud layer (Azure, second largest) and the application layer (Windows/Office). They possess the critical distribution and user data (emails, texts, Teams) required to power AI tools like Copilot. Despite cap-ex concerns, revenue growth is expected to accelerate as supply constraints ease. Long based on a rare valuation discount relative to the broader market and entrenched AI positioning. Continued investor impatience with high capital expenditures (CapEx) without immediate ROI. |
CNBC
Citi's Tyler Radke: We're getting close to th...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Tom Lee
Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat
|
"I think positioning has gotten riskoff enough that we can sort of climb maybe in a labored way towards 7,300... the fundamental anchoring is actually good." The market has been suppressed by macro fears (Fed, War) despite strong double-digit earnings. As these fears subside, stock prices must re-rate higher to match the "E" (earnings) that has already been delivered. LONG broad equities to capture the convergence of price with fundamental earnings reality. Persistent inflation or escalation in geopolitical conflicts preventing multiple expansion. |
CNBC
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Most stocks haven't refl...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Tom Lee
Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat
|
"Crypto bottoms... we've already gotten to draw downs that are basically 80% of what's been in past crypto winters." Using historical cycles as a guide, the current drawdown has reached the statistical threshold where previous bear markets ("winters") found a floor. This implies the selling is nearly done. LONG Crypto assets as they approach a statistical bottom. Regulatory crackdowns or a failure of the historical cycle model to repeat. |
CNBC
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Most stocks haven't refl...
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Feb 18
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WATCH
|
Tom Lee
Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat
|
"We need to hear from Jensen Wong. I mean that could set the bottom because you know like if you look at the software index this is like the eighth week of a pretty severe downturn." Nvidia is the bellwether for AI spending. Strong guidance from NVDA validates the CapEx cycle, which is the necessary catalyst to stop the bleeding in the broader software and tech sectors. WATCH Nvidia earnings as the pivotal signal to confirm the bottoms in Software and Mag 7. A disappointment in earnings or guidance would likely invalidate the bullish thesis for the entire tech complex. |
CNBC
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Most stocks haven't refl...
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Feb 18
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LONG
|
Tom Lee
Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat
|
"IGV bottoms, that's software... software ownership is like multi-decade lows." Sentiment in the software sector is completely washed out (contrarian indicator). When ownership hits multi-decade lows, selling pressure is typically exhausted, creating an asymmetric upside setup. LONG Software ETFs (IGV) as a contrarian play on extreme negative sentiment. Enterprise IT spending slowing down more than anticipated. |
CNBC
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Most stocks haven't refl...
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Tom Lee
Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat
|
"Rotation back to the mag 7... the mag 7 have gotten cheaper than the bullet makers, which has never happened in 10 years. They're three PE points discount." A historical valuation anomaly has occurred where the largest tech platforms are cheaper than the hardware suppliers ("bullet makers"). Mean reversion suggests capital will rotate back into the Mag 7 as the "cheaper" growth play. LONG the Magnificent Seven to exploit this rare valuation discount. Continued rotation into defensive sectors or small caps ignoring the tech valuation gap. |
CNBC
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Most stocks haven't refl...
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Feb 18
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AVOID
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Sharon Epperson
Senior Personal Finance Correspondent
|
Bank of America data shows spending growth has "ticked down for lower and for middle income households," and the NFCC forecasts financial stress hitting a "new historic high" in Q1 2026. The middle class powers the bulk of the U.S. consumption engine. If their free cash flow is insufficient to service debt (let alone buy goods), broad discretionary spending must contract. The "band-aid" of tax refunds is expected to be "used up" by the second half of the year. Avoid broad consumer discretionary exposure that relies on middle-income spending power. Government stimulus or unexpected wage growth outpacing inflation. |
CNBC
Middle-income financial stress: Here's what t...
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Feb 18
|
|
WATCH
|
Sharon Epperson
Senior Personal Finance Correspondent
|
"Consumers free cash flow at some point will not amortize their outstanding unsecured debt," and this issue is moving up the income ranks. "Unsecured debt" primarily refers to credit cards and personal loans. If borrowers cannot pay down principal (amortize), they remain on a treadmill of interest payments until they default. This signals rising credit risk and potential charge-offs for lenders with heavy consumer exposure. Watch for deteriorating credit quality in consumer-facing financials. Significant interest rate cuts reducing the debt service burden for consumers. |
CNBC
Middle-income financial stress: Here's what t...
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Feb 18
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LONG
|
Sharon Epperson
Senior Personal Finance Correspondent
|
Sharon reports that middle-income consumers are now "making tradeoffs" and explicitly "buying cheaper items" due to mounting financial pressure. When the middle class is squeezed by inflation and debt service costs, they shift consumption from premium or discretionary channels to value-oriented staples. This "trade-down" effect historically drives volume to discount retailers like Walmart and Costco. Long discount retail as a defensive hedge against middle-income consumer stress. Supply chain disruptions or tariffs raising input costs even for discounters. |
CNBC
Middle-income financial stress: Here's what t...
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Feb 18
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LONG
|
Donald Trump
President of the United States
|
"The stock market has hit 53 all-time record highs since the election... Dow Jones... rose above 50,000... S&P broke 7,000." The President explicitly links his administration's policies (deregulation, tax cuts) to record equity performance, signaling continued fiscal and political support for asset prices to maintain the "hottest country" narrative. LONG US Equities as the administration prioritizes market performance as a key KPI. Re-acceleration of inflation due to loose fiscal policy or trade wars. |
CNBC
President Trump hosts Black History Month rec...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Donald Trump
President of the United States
|
"One of the reasons I was so high on Scott Tenner is he was really the driving force behind the opportunity zones... make not just housing affordable... but really to bring transformation." Continued emphasis on Opportunity Zones and HUD initiatives suggests sustained federal incentives for real estate development, particularly in targeted economic zones. LONG Real Estate Developers/REITs. Rising interest rates could dampen housing demand despite incentives. |
CNBC
President Trump hosts Black History Month rec...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Donald Trump
President of the United States
|
"Gasoline is now breaking $2 a gallon... No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on social security." The combination of plummeting energy costs (a major input for households) and the elimination of taxes on multiple income streams creates a significant shock of disposable income for consumers, directly benefiting discretionary spending. LONG Consumer Discretionary stocks. If deflation in energy signals a broader recession rather than just supply abundance. |
CNBC
President Trump hosts Black History Month rec...
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Donald Trump
President of the United States
|
"We move people out. We take career criminals and we get them out... If you do a harsh crime, you do harsh time." The administration's focus on mass deportations and strict incarceration ("harsh time") necessitates expanded detention infrastructure and logistics, a market dominated by private prison operators. LONG Private Prisons/Detention REITs. Legal challenges to deportation orders or changes in federal contracting. |
CNBC
President Trump hosts Black History Month rec...
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Feb 18
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LONG
|
Rob Hadock
General Partner at Dragonfly Capital
|
Haddock states that stablecoins are "probably our number one place where we've put money to work," citing investments in issuers and settlement infrastructure (like Rain with Visa). Venture capital is aggressively funding the "plumbing" of financial markets. If smart money is betting on stablecoins becoming the default settlement layer for major networks like Visa, the sector (and associated infrastructure tokens) will see increased utility and volume. LONG. Follow the institutional capital flow into stablecoin infrastructure. Regulatory crackdowns or failure of the "Clarity Act" to pass. |
CNBC
Crypto leaders and lawmakers meet at Trump fa...
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
John D'Agostino
Coinbase Institutional
|
The speaker states that $100,000 was an "emotional break point" where long-term holders deleveraged, and that current volatility is driven by "emotional break points" rather than structural failure. He maintains a "long-term bullish outlook." When price drops are attributed to psychological profit-taking (deleveraging after hitting $100k) rather than a change in asset utility, the pullback represents a consolidation phase within a secular bull market. LONG. The thesis suggests the current dip is a technical reset, offering a buying opportunity for long-term horizons. Continued momentum-based selling could push prices through lower support "handles" (e.g., $80k, $60k). |
CNBC
Crypto leaders and lawmakers meet at Trump fa...
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Bernie Moreno
U.S. Senator (R-Ohio)
|
Senator Moreno claims the "Clarity Act could become law by April" and explicitly supports "allowing rewards on stable coins." Currently, stablecoins largely do not pass yield to holders due to regulatory ambiguity. If the law changes to allow yield (interest) on stablecoins, they become superior to cash deposits for the average consumer, driving massive adoption and liquidity into the ecosystem. LONG. A legislative catalyst in April creates a specific timeframe for repricing assets related to compliant stablecoin issuance. Legislative gridlock or a watered-down bill that maintains restrictions on yield. |
CNBC
Crypto leaders and lawmakers meet at Trump fa...
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|
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Rob Hadock
General Partner at Dragonfly Capital
|
Haddock highlights "the poly markets of the world" as portfolio companies that are "growing and creating that future." Dragonfly Capital is identifying prediction markets not just as gambling venues, but as a part of the "financial revolution" they are underwriting. Institutional backing suggests this sector has staying power beyond election cycles. LONG. The sector is identified as a high-growth vertical by a major VC. Regulatory scrutiny regarding gambling laws in the US. |
CNBC
Crypto leaders and lawmakers meet at Trump fa...
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Feb 18
|
|
AVOID
|
Ryan Baker
Host, CNBC Crypto World
|
Baker reports that "Galaxy shares have dropped about 22% monthtodate." The stock is suffering from significant negative momentum in a "risk-off environment." When a crypto-proxy stock underperforms even during weeks where specific assets like XRP are rising, it indicates structural weakness or lack of investor confidence. AVOID. Do not catch the falling knife until momentum stabilizes. A sudden broad crypto market rally could lift all boats, including Galaxy. |
CNBC
Crypto leaders and lawmakers meet at Trump fa...
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Feb 18
|
|
WATCH
|
Michael Nathanson
Founding Partner and Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson
|
Nathanson argues the US can no longer "dictate global digital markets" and the risk is that the EU, LatAm, or Asia-Pac will enforce their own rules making it "more difficult for these giant tech platforms to actually monetize." While US regulation (Section 230) is stagnant, the fragmentation of global internet laws creates a complex compliance environment that could erode margins for global platforms. Watch for non-US regulatory announcements as leading indicators of monetization compression. Harmonization of global digital laws or US re-asserting dominance in standard-setting. |
CNBC
MoffettNathanson's Daniel Nathanson shares hi...
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Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
Michael Nathanson
Founding Partner and Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson
|
Nathanson explicitly holds a "Buy rating on Meta" with an "$810 price target." He notes that the market tends to "ignore all the fines and penalties" because the business model is "so strong and so profitable." The legal noise and emotional testimony do not alter the financial mechanics of the company. Section 230 provides immunity, and the market treats regulatory fines as non-recurring expenses, leaving the core valuation thesis intact. Long positions remain justified by fundamentals despite negative PR and litigation. Federal government changes to Section 230 or significant changes in liability laws. |
CNBC
MoffettNathanson's Daniel Nathanson shares hi...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
AVOID
|
Michael Nathanson
Founding Partner and Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson
|
Nathanson points out that "Snap's been warning that they're seeing slower user growth" specifically because of age usage limits and bans in markets like Australia, Spain, and the UK. Unlike the diversified giants, smaller platforms are more sensitive to regulatory friction. The "wave of cases" and international restrictions are already materially impacting Snap's user acquisition and growth metrics. Avoid due to visible regulatory drag on growth that is not affecting larger peers to the same degree. Successful pivot to new demographics or relaxation of international age-gating laws. |
CNBC
MoffettNathanson's Daniel Nathanson shares hi...
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Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Alex Kantrowitz
Founder of Big Technology
|
When asked if YouTube faces the same risk, Kantrowitz stated, "I think YouTube will actually be able to fare better here." Public and jury perception distinguishes between "leaning back" to watch 30 minutes of content (YouTube/TV behavior) versus the "visceral," rapid-fire addiction loops of social feeds (Instagram/TikTok). This differentiation insulates Google from the most severe "addiction" litigation risks compared to Meta. LONG (Relative to META). Google is the safer play in the ad-tech/social space amidst this litigation wave. Discovery in future trials reveals internal documents showing YouTube explicitly engineered addiction loops similar to Meta. |
CNBC
Worst outcome in Meta LA trial are structural...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
NEUTRAL
|
Alex Kantrowitz
Founder of Big Technology
|
"Snapchat settled... because they didn't want to end up in a place that Zuckerberg is today." Snap avoided the immediate "headline risk" and the possibility of a precedent-setting loss by paying out early. While this protects them from the current trial's volatility, they still operate in the same "addictive" sector that is under fire. NEUTRAL. They made a tactical move to de-risk, but the sector overhang remains. "Cascading effects" from a Meta loss could lead to industry-wide regulation that hurts Snap regardless of their settlement. |
CNBC
Worst outcome in Meta LA trial are structural...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
SHORT
|
Alex Kantrowitz
Founder of Big Technology
|
Meta is facing a jury trial (not a judge) regarding the addiction of a minor. Kantrowitz notes, "If there are structural changes to the way that that company is able to run its app, that would be massive and fairly unprecedented." A jury is likely to be swayed by emotional testimony ("ruined a very young girl's life") unlike a judge in an antitrust case. A loss here sets a precedent for hundreds of pending cases. If Meta is forced to alter its algorithms (the "structural changes"), it fundamentally breaks the engagement loops that drive revenue. SHORT. The downside risk involves core product degradation, not just fines. Meta wins the case, or the judgment is limited to monetary damages rather than product injunctions. |
CNBC
Worst outcome in Meta LA trial are structural...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Karoline Leavitt
White House Press Secretary
|
Leavitt confirmed the US is "still selling weapons to NATO," pledged "five billion dollars" for Gaza reconstruction (requiring security), and mentioned potential military action regarding Iran. Despite the "peace" branding, the "International Stabilization Force" and continued arming of NATO allies ensure sustained order flow for major defense prime contractors. The "peace through strength" doctrine requires high defense spending. LONG defense primes as geopolitical volatility and reconstruction security demand hardware. A sudden, comprehensive peace deal in Ukraine or the Middle East that significantly reduces procurement budgets. |
CNBC
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt ...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Karoline Leavitt
White House Press Secretary
|
Leavitt stated the administration has deported "nearly 3 million illegals" and is engaging with governors to "open more detention facilities" to handle "illegal alien criminals." The federal government does not have sufficient capacity to house this volume of detainees. They must rely on private contractors for detention infrastructure. This volume of "arrested, detained, and deported" individuals guarantees high occupancy rates and contract renewals for private prison REITs. LONG private prison operators due to explicit government demand for detention space. Legal challenges to deportation orders or changes in federal contracting laws. |
CNBC
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt ...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Karoline Leavitt
White House Press Secretary
|
The President announced the EPA has "repealed these federal limits on emissions for cars, trucks," claiming it will save families "$2,500 for a new car." The repeal of strict emission limits reduces the R&D and compliance costs for legacy automakers associated with forced EV transitions. It allows them to sell higher-margin Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) trucks and SUVs without penalty. LONG legacy automakers who benefit from extended ICE runways and reduced regulatory overhead. California or other states enforcing stricter state-level standards creating a bifurcated market. |
CNBC
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt ...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Karoline Leavitt
White House Press Secretary
|
Leavitt explicitly stated, "Coal truly keeps the lights on in this country," and mentioned the President's push for "more fossil fuels" and the "drill baby drill agenda." The administration is actively removing regulatory hurdles (EPA repeals) and offering rhetorical and policy support to the coal industry, contrary to the global transition narrative. This extends the lifespan and profitability of US coal assets. LONG US coal producers as regulatory pressure eases and baseload power demand is prioritized. Global demand drops or natural gas becomes significantly cheaper, displacing coal despite policy support. |
CNBC
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt ...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Karoline Leavitt
White House Press Secretary
|
When asked about policy announcements, Leavitt said, "When you see it on Truth Social, you know it's directly from President Trump... that's the beauty of this president." The administration is officially validating Truth Social as a primary channel for government communication and policy dissemination. This drives user engagement and legitimacy for the platform's parent company. LONG the media entity linked to the President due to its status as a quasi-official state communication channel. Regulatory scrutiny or user churn if the President migrates back to X (Twitter). |
CNBC
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt ...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
SHORT
|
Karoline Leavitt
White House Press Secretary
|
The President is fighting for a "ban on institutional investors and Wall Street billionaire corporations... from buying up single-family homes." This policy directly targets the business model of Single-Family Rental (SFR) REITs. A ban on acquisitions—or forced divestitures—would halt growth and potentially flood the market with supply, crushing book values and rental yields for these funds. SHORT SFR REITs due to existential regulatory risk. The ban may not pass Congress or could be struck down by courts as unconstitutional. |
CNBC
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt ...
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|
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Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Karen Firestone
Investor
|
"S&P down 25% with this wave of hitting software companies... They are the rating giant particularly in fixed income. And that's where we're having a lot of debt selling right now." The market indiscriminately sold SPGI as a "software" stock. However, its core business is credit ratings, which is currently booming due to high corporate debt issuance volumes. This disconnect offers a discount on a high-quality compounder. Buying the dip on mispricing. A sudden freeze in credit markets or debt issuance. |
CNBC
Trade Tracker: Karen Firestone details her la...
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|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Karen Firestone
Investor
|
"It went as high as 40 times earnings on the wave of sustainability... stock's come down... We believe that they can grow their earnings 11% roughly per year." The "ESG premium" that pushed the stock to 40x has evaporated, providing an attractive entry point. As the largest water utility, it offers reliable double-digit earnings growth and a dividend yield, now at a reasonable valuation. Value entry into a defensive compounder. Regulatory caps on utility rates or rising interest rates impacting yield attractiveness. |
CNBC
Trade Tracker: Karen Firestone details her la...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
NEUTRAL
|
Karen Firestone
Investor
|
"The stock has gone from 11 times earnings... to 19 times now. And we just decided to move some of that into other names." The stock has re-rated significantly. While the business may be fine, the risk/reward profile is less attractive at 19x PE compared to the entry at 11x, necessitating a trim to fund better-valued ideas. Taking profits / Rotating capital. Consumer spending remains stronger than expected, driving further multiple expansion. |
CNBC
Trade Tracker: Karen Firestone details her la...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Karen Firestone
Investor
|
"Business of pumps, valves and seals... aftermarket. They provide to the chemical industry oil and gas power generation." This is a play on the "old economy" industrial base. As energy, chemical, and power generation sectors expand or maintain infrastructure, the demand for engineering aftermarket parts (recurring revenue) increases. Cyclical / Industrial growth play. Global industrial slowdown or recession reducing capex in energy/chemicals. |
CNBC
Trade Tracker: Karen Firestone details her la...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
—
|
Meta is one of Nvidia's top two customers and is now purchasing Nvidia CPUs (Grace) alongside GPUs, whereas "Intel and AMD used to own that market of server CPUs." Nvidia is using its dominance in GPUs to cross-sell CPUs by promising better throughput and performance. Hyperscalers like Meta are accepting this bundle to ensure they remain on the priority list for scarce GPU allocation. Long NVDA as it captures more data center wallet share; Long META as it secures the necessary compute for AI dominance. Regulatory scrutiny on Nvidia's bundling practices; over-ordering by Hyperscalers leading to an eventual inventory digestion phase. |
Bloomberg Markets
Meta Deepens Nvidia Ties As Uber Plans To Spe...
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|
Feb 18
|
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LONG
|
—
|
Uber completes 13 billion rides per year compared to Waymo's 20 million. Uber is investing $100M into robotaxi charging stations. The hardest part of ride-hailing is managing wait times. Robotaxi hardware companies (like Waymo) lack the network density to offer low wait times globally. Therefore, they must eventually plug into Uber's network to be viable. Uber becomes the aggregator/platform rather than the hardware manufacturer. Long UBER as the "winner-take-most" network utility for the autonomous future. Expansion of Chinese autonomous fleets (like Didi) into Europe and other non-US markets could challenge Uber's global dominance. |
Bloomberg Markets
Meta Deepens Nvidia Ties As Uber Plans To Spe...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
AVOID
|
—
|
The speaker notes that "Intel and AMD used to own that market of server CPUs" but Nvidia is now telling customers they get better performance using Nvidia CPUs with their GPU clusters. As Hyperscalers (Meta) shift CPU spend to Nvidia to optimize AI workloads and secure supply, the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for traditional x86 server CPUs (Intel/AMD) shrinks in the high-growth AI segment. Avoid legacy chipmakers as they lose their stronghold in the hyperscale data center market. Nvidia's CPU performance fails to meet benchmarks; antitrust intervention prevents Nvidia from bundling CPUs with GPUs. |
Bloomberg Markets
Meta Deepens Nvidia Ties As Uber Plans To Spe...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
WATCH
|
Christian Magoon
CEO of Amplify ETFs
|
Magoon observes, "It used to just be about owning consumer staples stocks and utility stocks... But it's gotten a lot more sophisticated." The "old playbook" of hiding in defensive sectors for yield is becoming obsolete. Investors are better served by seeking yield through structural advantages (options strategies) on high-quality broad equities rather than concentrating risk in low-growth defensive sectors. WATCH / ROTATE. Implicit suggestion to reduce reliance on these specific sectors for income in favor of active option strategies. If volatility crashes, option premiums evaporate, potentially making traditional high-yield sectors attractive again relative to covered call funds. |
CNBC
Amplify ETFs CEO on ETFs with income-focused ...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
LONG
|
Christian Magoon
CEO of Amplify ETFs
|
Magoon advocates for a strategy mixing "high quality US equities" (DIVO) and "high quality international stocks" (IDVO) with an "active managed covered call approach." He highlights that the international version was up significantly (41% in the prior year mentioned) by using this tactical approach. In volatile markets, relying solely on price appreciation is dangerous. Generating yield from two sources—dividends and option premiums—buffers returns. Furthermore, option income often counts as "Return of Capital," which reduces the investor's cost basis rather than being taxed immediately as ordinary income. LONG. These active ETFs offer a superior risk-adjusted way to capture income compared to passive indexing in choppy markets. Covered calls cap upside potential during aggressive bull runs; international exposure introduces currency and geopolitical risks. |
CNBC
Amplify ETFs CEO on ETFs with income-focused ...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
SHORT
|
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
|
Sorkin visited an AMC theater for a recent movie ("Crime 101") and noted only ~12 people were in the audience. The stock is trading under $2. Despite having "good movies," the theaters remain empty. The business model relies on consistent blockbusters, which are not materializing frequently enough to support the overhead. The fundamental business is broken ("How is this whole place even in business?"). A surprise mega-hit or "meme stock" rally could temporarily squeeze shorts. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
WATCH
|
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
|
Amazon snapped a 9-day losing streak that shaved $450B off its market cap following the announcement of a $200B capex plan for 2026 (AI spend). The market initially panicked at the spending scale (4x estimates), but the rebound suggests investors are beginning to digest the necessity of this AI infrastructure build-out. The stock is at a pivot point; execution on this capital deployment is critical. It is a high-stakes bet on AI integration preventing the company from being "put out of business." If the $200B spend does not yield additive revenue or distinct AI advantages, returns on invested capital will crush the stock. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
AVOID
|
Dr. Scott Gottlieb
Former FDA Commissioner; Board Member (Pfizer, Illumina, UnitedHealth); Partner at NEA (Venture Capital)
|
Gottlieb cites a Wall Street Journal editorial noting FDA leader Vinay Prasad rejected Moderna's (MRNA) mRNA vaccine without a cursory review. This "arbitrary" regulatory behavior increases the cost of capital and unpredictability for the entire sector. Gottlieb notes investment in vaccines and cell/gene therapies is drying up in the US and shifting to China (where half of the global mRNA pipeline now sits). The regulatory environment in the US has become hostile to innovation, making the sector uninvestable in the medium term until leadership changes. A change in FDA administration or successful appeals by pharma companies could reverse sentiment. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
|
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
AVOID
|
Steven Fulip
Partnership for New York City President and CEO
|
NYC Mayor is threatening a property tax hike if a wealth tax isn't passed. Fulip notes this would push NYC corporate taxes to ~22% compared to 11% in neighboring New Jersey. The tax disparity creates a "trip wire" for businesses. Fulip highlights that JPMorgan (JPM) now has more employees in Texas than in NYC, signaling a structural shift of business operations away from the city due to fiscal policy. Avoid NYC-centric real estate and commercial exposure as the tax burden threatens to drive further corporate exodus. The Governor (Hochul) may block the tax proposals, maintaining the status quo. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
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Feb 18
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WATCH
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Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
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Netflix (NFLX) is giving Paramount (PARA) a week to negotiate with Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) before pressing its own "better bid" (guaranteed deal, less debt). WBD is the prize in a bidding war between two major players. Netflix is "flooding the zone" to convince shareholders directly, bypassing the board. WBD is in play. The competitive tension between NFLX and PARA suggests a floor or premium for WBD shares, though regulatory hurdles remain a massive question mark. DOJ/Antitrust regulators could block either deal, leaving WBD as a standalone entity with high debt. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
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Feb 18
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WATCH
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Michelle McGinness
CEO of My Cargo 247
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Theft is surging ($725M losses), "strategic theft" (identity theft) is rising, and 60% of freight is underinsured. Widespread theft acts as a hidden tax on the trucking ecosystem, increasing insurance premiums and operational friction. While large players are insulated, the broader sector faces headwinds from "shrink" and liability disputes, potentially squeezing margins across the industry until security solutions scale. WATCH (Sector Headwind). Rapid adoption of new spot-market insurance technologies could mitigate these risks faster than anticipated. |
CNBC
How small businesses are insuring their cargo...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Michelle McGinness
CEO of My Cargo 247
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"The larger freight companies have traditional insurance that is great for contracts... a $200,000 loss for a large carrier might be a blip on their balance sheet but it can put out of business a small shipper." The surge in cargo theft creates a "survival of the fittest" environment. Small, underinsured carriers in the spot market face existential risk from a single theft event. This structural fragility favors large, capitalized logistics providers (UPS, FedEx, C.H. Robinson) who possess robust insurance programs and balance sheet depth. Shippers seeking reliability will likely consolidate volume toward these safer incumbents. LONG (Flight to Safety/Consolidation). A broad recession reducing overall freight volumes; "Strategic theft" (identity fraud) evolving to bypass even sophisticated carrier defenses. |
CNBC
How small businesses are insuring their cargo...
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Feb 18
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AVOID
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Volodymyr Zelenskiy
President of Ukraine
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"We will not let other European nations go either." Zelenskiy explicitly warns that Putin's ambitions are not limited to Ukraine but extend to the broader European continent. This introduces significant geopolitical tail risk for European markets. If the conflict threatens to spill over or if Russia maintains a permanent aggressive posture against the EU, European assets warrant a higher risk premium compared to US counterparts. AVOID. The geopolitical overhang acts as a cap on valuation multiples for European indices. If the conflict remains strictly contained within Ukraine or ends sooner than expected, European equities could rally on relief. |
Bloomberg Markets
Zelenskiy Says He Cannot Imagine Putin Withou...
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