Trade Tracker: Karen Firestone details her latest portfolio moves

Speakers

Karen Firestone — Investor

Summary

Valuation Discipline: Rotating capital out of winners that have experienced significant multiple expansion (from 11x to 19x earnings) into undervalued opportunities.
Opportunity in Misclassification: Capitalizing on the sell-off in rating agencies (down 25%) caused by their correlation with software stocks, despite strong fundamentals in fixed income issuance.
Defensive Growth & Industrials: Adding exposure to water utilities following valuation compression and industrial aftermarket services (pumps/valves) to play the manufacturing/energy theme.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
AXP	NEUTRAL	Karen Firestone Investor	"The stock has gone from 11 times earnings... to 19 times now. And we just decided to move some of that into other names." The stock has re-rated significantly. While the business may be fine, the risk/reward profile is less attractive at 19x PE compared to the entry at 11x, necessitating a trim to fund better-valued ideas. Taking profits / Rotating capital. Consumer spending remains stronger than expected, driving further multiple expansion.	0:13
SPGI	LONG	Karen Firestone Investor	"S&P down 25% with this wave of hitting software companies... They are the rating giant particularly in fixed income. And that's where we're having a lot of debt selling right now." The market indiscriminately sold SPGI as a "software" stock. However, its core business is credit ratings, which is currently booming due to high corporate debt issuance volumes. This disconnect offers a discount on a high-quality compounder. Buying the dip on mispricing. A sudden freeze in credit markets or debt issuance.	—
AWK	LONG	Karen Firestone Investor	"It went as high as 40 times earnings on the wave of sustainability... stock's come down... We believe that they can grow their earnings 11% roughly per year." The "ESG premium" that pushed the stock to 40x has evaporated, providing an attractive entry point. As the largest water utility, it offers reliable double-digit earnings growth and a dividend yield, now at a reasonable valuation. Value entry into a defensive compounder. Regulatory caps on utility rates or rising interest rates impacting yield attractiveness.	—
FLS	LONG	Karen Firestone Investor	"Business of pumps, valves and seals... aftermarket. They provide to the chemical industry oil and gas power generation." This is a play on the "old economy" industrial base. As energy, chemical, and power generation sectors expand or maintain infrastructure, the demand for engineering aftermarket parts (recurring revenue) increases. Cyclical / Industrial growth play. Global industrial slowdown or recession reducing capex in energy/chemicals.	—