| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Tom Lee
Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat |
"I think positioning has gotten riskoff enough that we can sort of climb maybe in a labored way towards 7,300... the fundamental anchoring is actually good." The market has been suppressed by macro fears (Fed, War) despite strong double-digit earnings. As these fears subside, stock prices must re-rate higher to match the "E" (earnings) that has already been delivered. LONG broad equities to capture the convergence of price with fundamental earnings reality. Persistent inflation or escalation in geopolitical conflicts preventing multiple expansion. | — | |
| LONG |
Tom Lee
Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat |
"Rotation back to the mag 7... the mag 7 have gotten cheaper than the bullet makers, which has never happened in 10 years. They're three PE points discount." A historical valuation anomaly has occurred where the largest tech platforms are cheaper than the hardware suppliers ("bullet makers"). Mean reversion suggests capital will rotate back into the Mag 7 as the "cheaper" growth play. LONG the Magnificent Seven to exploit this rare valuation discount. Continued rotation into defensive sectors or small caps ignoring the tech valuation gap. | 1:56 | |
| LONG |
Tom Lee
Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat |
"IGV bottoms, that's software... software ownership is like multi-decade lows." Sentiment in the software sector is completely washed out (contrarian indicator). When ownership hits multi-decade lows, selling pressure is typically exhausted, creating an asymmetric upside setup. LONG Software ETFs (IGV) as a contrarian play on extreme negative sentiment. Enterprise IT spending slowing down more than anticipated. | 1:56 | |
| LONG |
Tom Lee
Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat |
"Crypto bottoms... we've already gotten to draw downs that are basically 80% of what's been in past crypto winters." Using historical cycles as a guide, the current drawdown has reached the statistical threshold where previous bear markets ("winters") found a floor. This implies the selling is nearly done. LONG Crypto assets as they approach a statistical bottom. Regulatory crackdowns or a failure of the historical cycle model to repeat. | — | |
| WATCH |
Tom Lee
Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat |
"We need to hear from Jensen Wong. I mean that could set the bottom because you know like if you look at the software index this is like the eighth week of a pretty severe downturn." Nvidia is the bellwether for AI spending. Strong guidance from NVDA validates the CapEx cycle, which is the necessary catalyst to stop the bleeding in the broader software and tech sectors. WATCH Nvidia earnings as the pivotal signal to confirm the bottoms in Software and Mag 7. A disappointment in earnings or guidance would likely invalidate the bullish thesis for the entire tech complex. | 2:43 |